Pro Worlds 2010 course analysis - Lemon Lake

[Dave242]

I want to start a thread about this since I find "post mortems" intriguing (real live DGCourseReview!). I in absolutely no way want to trash the volunteers who have absolutely busted their butts over the last 2 years in preparing the courses. I played there first 1 year ago and the work in making tweaks and getting things cleaned up is astounding. I ask that all posting on this thread keep this in mind as they type.

Out of interest, I searched and found some 9-10 month old discussion about tweaking the courses in the Knockdown Trees (http://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/showthread.php?p=211517&highlight=worlds#post211517) thread.

I personally find it doubly interesting re-reading that discussion in that I got the privilege to caddy at PW2010 on the Red course for upper level players in Grandmasters, Masters and Open and got to just watch (without being distracted by my own play) how they approached the holes, how they conquered them, and how they screwed them up (that was the most interesting to me). I also caddied on blue for 2 rounds with Top level Pro's as well as playing practice rounds on all courses with a group of 970-1015 rated players.

[racer93]

Let's hear about some of the screw ups! I'd be interested (without names) to see what the player did, what they should have done, and what they did to extracate themselves from the situation.

Also, for whom did you caddy? I'm thinking of caddying (or at least asking) for one or two of the TOP pros that are coming to a local A tier in September.

[Cgkdisc]

I wonder how many posters on here actually played in Worlds besides myself?

[gkeberhart]

I have to say, I wasnt all that thrilled with the pin placements used on Blue 9 and 10, they were still fun to play but I think I liked 9 much more when it was closer to the swamp/pond. I actually would have like to see it moved closer making an ace run very risky but it still seemed as though it was a fairly simple birdie hole with the placement at Worlds. 10 to me seemed to much of a very easy par 4 (not that it was the case with everyone) I like the shorter tighter par three much better because there was always a risk trying to throw it to the basket off the tee.

that being said I really enjoyed the new layout for blue 14 much more difficult and definitely a tougher hole after the change.

holes on blue I would have liked to see some bigger improvements on were holes 4-8 but they are still good holes to enjoy. when I get a chance to play red and silver again I will have more input on those holes.

[gkeberhart]

I wonder how many posters on here actually played in Worlds besides myself?

more than you think, I know a few guys I play with on occasion are posters here and were in MPO at worlds

[Cgkdisc]

That's great. Just asking.

I was surprised at the Blue 9 pin which I hadn't seen. It was OK for righties with the high hyzer stall but lefties and forehanders didn't have what I would consider acceptable routes. Some regretted hole 10 not being in its lower position. But the upper position made the hole a good 3/4/5 spread for Open and other divisions. The lower position would have generated many more lost discs slowing play. As it was, Blue 10 moved along nicely.

[gkeberhart]

what course were you playing on saturday. I was only there for that day and watched the FPO and MPO divisions only

[Cgkdisc]

Didn't make the cut for GM semis on Saturday after tanking the Gold on Friday.

[gkeberhart]

What did you think of Gold. I have only played it once (and it is the only course I havent shot under par there) I dont know if they changed it any fro Pro Worlds but even after it kicked my butt I still wanted to play it again

[Cgkdisc]

There are still some tweaks and trimming needed on some of the Gold holes, especially the back nine. But overall, I think many thought it was the best course there. Personally, I like Silver better since it's designed for my (blue) skill level but appreciate the tougher routes designed for Gold.

[Dave242]

Let's hear about some of the screw ups! I'd be interested (without names) to see what the player did, what they should have done, and what they did to extracate themselves from the situation.

Also, for whom did you caddy? I'm thinking of caddying (or at least asking) for one or two of the TOP pros that are coming to a local A tier in September.

Regarding screw-ups, I saw a bunch that I would not expect top guys to make (including Climo going OB onto the street on Blue 6). I saw a lot of Katana (and Nuke) throwing where a lesser speed and more predictable disc would have yielded better results. I saw a lot of "going for it" where the risks FAR outweighed the very slim possibility of a reward.

I caddied for Alan Beaver (MGM), Sam Nicholson (MPM - started out hot and was on the 2nd card), Cam Todd (2nd card with Climo & Brinster), Jeremy Koling, Henry Childres. On several backup holes got to see the group in front tee off (and watch the group behind throw). I highly recommend the experience (but pay attention.....I did have 1-2 "fopahs").

[Dave242]

Chuck - what is the thinking in setting up the courses for Worlds? You have huge spread of skills there from granny's to the best of the best. I'm sure you want it to be the best experience for everyone, but is the setup weighed more to creating ideal scoring spread for the top of the top division (determining the "unprotected" world champ)?

I was perplexed by a few choices in hole setup including:
Red 8 (I doubt it had good scoring spread for the Gold level players.....probably OK for Blue though. I did witness Koling 2'ing it and Childres parked it and 2'd it, but still. Is it really 570'? Seemed more like 500'.)
Red 12 (why was the right pin position not used or more trees cut?)
Red 14 (Good for 300' arms, but not a good go-for risk/reward shot for others)
Red 18 (Routine 3 for the 400'+ arms - good 3 for the 350' arms)
Blue 4 (long pin would have been better for more people IMO)

[Discette]

I wonder how many posters on here actually played in Worlds besides myself?


Me, me, me! I played at Pro Worlds too!

I really enjoyed the Lemon Lake complex. I had a chance to play all the courses multiple times except the Gold course. While it is no Highbridge, it is definitely worth the trip.

All the courses were in excellent condition. The amount of work the volunteers in the Rec Roc club did was very evident on almost every hole.
There were concrete tees on every hole except White #7 and Silver #13. There were tee signs on all the holes and appropriate directional signs to the next tees. There were many benches on the courses. Lots of wood chips really dressed up the Silver course. There was evidence of mass weed whacking and mowing in areas that were once filled with poison ivy and other undesirable weeds.

With the exception of some holes on the White course, I felt all the courses were fair, with fair fairways. My favorite course for challenge and fairness (and that of many others I spoke with) was the Silver course. I wish my division could have played the Silver more than once or at least had a chance to play the Gold course.

[Cgkdisc]

Percentages expected for gold players (975+) from testing are 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s plus Avg:
Red 8 - 0% 50% 43% 7% 3.5
Red 12 - 29% 54% 16% 1% 2.9
Red 14 - 0% 40% 47% 13% 3.7
Red 18 - 0% 33% 56% 11% 3.8
Blue 4 (long) - 0% 76% 24% 3.2
This was changed to the shorter position played due to the poor spread in the test. I suspect we'll see a spread with ~30-35% 2s, 60-65% 3s and 5% 4s for gold but I haven't looked at he Blue 4 numbers yet.

The Red holes tested out fine for gold level. We'll spot check some of the holes from the Worlds scorecards. The SSA also held up from the testing so I expect the hole spreads will also be similar.

Cutting more trees was not an option on 12. It's a hole that would be destroyed (much too easy) if the two trees that would widen the fairway came down without a significant tee/pin change.

[Cgkdisc]

There were concrete tees on every hole except White #7 and Silver #13
There is no separate Silver tee on 13. Silver and Gold are the same concrete tee. The incomplete tee box there was not authorized by Brian. If it ever went in, it's likely it would be a Gold not Silver tee on that hole due to its 370 ft length thru the woods.

[racer93]

Regarding screw-ups, I saw a bunch that I would not expect top guys to make (including Climo going OB onto the street on Blue 6). I saw a lot of Katana (and Nuke) throwing where a lesser speed and more predictable disc would have yielded better results. I saw a lot of "going for it" where the risks FAR outweighed the very slim possibility of a reward.

Yeah, if I do it, I plan on keeping my mouth shut and speak only when spoken to. Had an incident with a very highly regarded pro (HoF'er) when I was whispering to a long-time friend while walking between holes. I was told this was not allowed and "broke his concentration." Makes me want to stay Am forever.

That's interesting about the screw ups. Especially using the katana (never would have thought Pros would be using them). I tell everyone I talk with the reason I seem to score well is that I don't "go for it" at every opportunity. I play smart golf. If you can do that, you will beat 75% of the field. The rest is skill or the game you have. A 3 will beat a 4 every time.

[Dave242]

There is no separate Silver tee on 13. Silver and Gold are the same concrete tee. The incomplete tee box there was not authorized by Brian. If it ever went in, it's likely it would be a Gold not Silver tee on that hole due to its 370 ft length thru the woods.

IMO, that incomplete tee would make for a better hole. Talking about that hole, do you have scoring spread data for Gold 13, 15, 16 & 18? (I am assuming someone likes those holes.....or they would not be there).

....and talking about scoring spreads, do you (or will you) have the raw hole-by-hole data (rather than "expected scoring spreads")? Will that be made public? As far as I know the only big tournament to do that is the USDGC. I would love to do some crunching to help develop (prove/disprove) some of my thoughts.

[Dave242]

oh.....and it was good meeting you Chuck and chatting for a few minutes during the practice rounds. You can verify that I am not 50% man, 50% dog......I trend more to one than the other. :D

[Cgkdisc]

Brian (TD) has the sack of scorecards. Asst TD Jay will be entering some of the data to check some things we want to verify compared with the prelim data. But normally the scorecards are only saved for a little while and scores not entered.

Here are the two holes that you asked for that didn't change by the time PW happened. Gold 15 & 16 had almost identical spreads with 65% 3s, 34% 4s and 1% 5s. Not fully happy with 15 and 16. The 15 pin was too tough and the first throw of 16 is too easy for Gold. Already talked with Brian about tweaks when we played it in doubles on Sunday.

Hole 13 was 38% 3s, 45% 4s and 17% 5s+ but it was opened up on the left (unauthorized) just before Worlds ruining the idea that it was a left/right initial shot to a landing area followed by the upshot to the pin. Most were trying to jam a shot thru the small opened area on the left thinking it was a too tight fairway when it wasn't supposed to be one at all. That cleared area will probably be filled with a bush or pine tree when the timing is right.

Hole 18 was cleaned out in the middle quite bit since the test data so I suspect the average during Worlds was lower than: 27% 3s, 40% 4s, 26% 5s and 7% higher.

[Grover]

I caddied for Alan Beaver (MGM), That's a nice dude. I was just kind of wandering around early Wednesday morning and he gave me some info on where to go and what to see while he was warming up.

I wish I'd have known I was talking to a HOFer when I was doing it...

[Discette]

There is no separate Silver tee on 13.

That unauthorized frame - complete with Silver Tee sign - made a much better hole than the Gold Tee - IMHO.

[Plankeye]

You should see Alan Beaver when he gets a little angry or upset at how his round is going. In the past he has been seen dragging his bag on the ground after a few missed putts and mumbling to himself. Someone that was watching him started to do a Steve Irwin impression and was talking about following the marks of the "angry beaver"

One of the new courses in Charlotte(Nevin IIRC) is nicknamed "The Angry Beaver"

[discNDav]

I followed the lead card from Friday afternoon and most of Saturday. I got to play the Blue Course
on Friday after the pro's were done and found it rather easy. I'm a shoulder/hip hurting Adv Masters player and shot a 58 while bogeying hole 9 (that should be birdied). I found the par 4's to be easy 4's and had a shot at birdie on them. Back in Oct '09 I played White which was too beginneer friendly and
and Red was just OK, I hate the small trees down the fairways and near the baskets. I walked Silver/Gold and they looked championship worthy.

[Dave242]

I followed the lead card from Friday afternoon and most of Saturday. I got to play the Blue Course
on Friday after the pro's were done and found it rather easy. I'm a shoulder/hip hurting Adv Masters player and shot a 58 while bogeying hole 9 (that should be birdied). I found the par 4's to be easy 4's and had a shot at birdie on them.

In general, Blue is a deuce-or die course for the big arms (400-500' drives), but is too long for lesser arms (300-350') to be interesting scoring wise. For even lesser arms (250-300') it is a scoring challenge.

Back in Oct '09 I played White which was too beginneer friendly

A few holes have been lengthened, but there are a ton of short holes still. I think the intent of that course is to be a Superclass (old school discs and/or Frisbees) course for accomplished players.....and of course, a fun challenge for lesser arms.

and Red was just OK, I hate the small trees down the fairways and near the baskets.

There was a lot of grumbling about that on a lot of holes. Some of it unwarranted. The trees I do not have an issue with are fairway splitters when there is still enough room to realistically expect navigate a good percentage (say 60%+) of the time. Trees around the basket (in the 10M circle) are OK if used sparingly (which is the case on red). These are OK with me since they often make you change your stance, and reward good putters. True, it is luck whether or not you hit them and what happens when you hit them, but again.....if they are in the circle good putters should be able to overcome the challenge more so than their less skilled competitors.

The trees I have an issue with are knockdown trees that are 40-60' from basket. If there is only a 3-6' route 250-300' down the fairway, even the best players in the world can not consistently execute shots to navigate those gaps. When they get knocked down that far out such a low percentage of players can make that putt more than 50% of the time that these trees do very little to reward real DG skills and punish any lacking skills.....it is all just luck. Red has 2-3 holes like this, that IMO should be fixed (if the park allows trees to be cut down).

On a related note, Red may be neutered in the coming years. Most of the trees in the fairways are Ash trees and the Emerald Ash Borer looks like it will be devastating pretty much all Ash trees in the next few years - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerald_ash_borer :thmbdown: :thmbdown: :thmbdown:

[discNDav]

On a related note, Red may be neutered in the coming years. Most of the trees in the fairways are Ash trees and the Emerald Ash Borer looks like it will be devastating pretty much all Ash trees in the next few years - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerald_ash_borer :thmbdown: :thmbdown: :thmbdown:

You are correct, my sister works in Forestry and has been battling EAB for years. You can see the loss of trees especially in Ann Arbor, Michigan area and on the Hudson Mills DGC. There is a good chance every Ash tree will not survive including the ones at Lemon Lake.

[tallpaul]

Evidently I need to play Red as much as possible in the next couple of years. It is my favorite course there; even with a little of the pin ball effect. When those trees go; it will be a bad version of the white course. Sad....especially if you have seen some courses completely destroyed by vanishing trees that used to present challenge.

[Dave242]

It is my favorite course there; even with a little of the pin ball effect.

Pinball trees can be a ton of fun and do not detract from the enjoyment from most people (including me in casual rounds). Red is just slightly below Gold for me at LL. It is just that usually pinball trees do not help separate competitors by skill very well since they use luck as much or more than skill to determine the outcome.

[Cgkdisc]

In my preliminary analysis, Blue was worse than Red overall in the correlation of 2-round score totals with player ratings. Not sure why but that's what it's showing for MPO.

[Dave242]

Interesting. Have you done a correlation between individual course scores and final scores? In that case I would think Blue might not correlate as well as it in general is more open and less punishing for inaccuracy (and therefore different....less correlation) than the other courses used.

[Dave242]

Did anyone manage to eagle 3 Gold #8 (it is 1120' or 1150')? I wonder how many people tried to 3 it. Chuck, do you have the actual scoring spread data on that hole?

[Cgkdisc]

I think the hole was 3'd either in practice or in one of the earlier test events but I didn't hear about one during Worlds. Brian and Jay have the scorecards. I'll be asking Jay to take a look at some numbers at some point but was going to wait and give him breather from Worlds for a while. I think Indiana States is there this weekend.

[superberry]

In my preliminary analysis, Blue was worse than Red overall in the correlation of 2-round score totals with player ratings. Not sure why but that's what it's showing for MPO.

Was it weather related? Cool early morning versus hot afternoon rounds?

[Cgkdisc]

Weather was essentially the same all week, even with the 90 minute lightning delay, and most MPO played Red & Blue once in the morning and once in the afternoon depending on their pool.