Originally Posted by Discwrangler
LOL! projected 7 on a par 5 (easiest hole on the course?) for a guy who bombs +400ft regularly?
Hole 13 is actually statistically the hardest hole on the course, at least in terms of the average strokes thrown on it relative to the assigned par. When assigning the handicap strokes to individual holes, which is what the projected score was doing, the practice is to start with the statistically toughest, and work down from there.
The rankings from highest to lowest were in the caddy book (http://www.usdgc.com/competitors/2012-caddy-book
). The top five most difficult holes were 13 (par 5), 11 (par 4), 5 (par 5), 18 (par 4), and 17 (par 3). From the looks of performance pars, the players with handicaps of 4 or less (performance par of 72 or under) had all their handicap strokes accounted for in the two hardest holes, 13 and 11. From there, as handicaps got higher, hole 5 gained a stroke, then hole 18, then hole 17 and so on.
The five easiest holes are 7 (par 3), 1 (par 3), 12 (par 5), 6 (par 3), and 8 (par 4). Few if any participants played with a performance par higher than "normal" par on those holes, because statistically, those holes have averages that are closest to par or perhaps even below it.
A simpler way of doing this, at least in stroke play competition, is to just take the number of handicap strokes each player has (performance par - normal par) and deduct them from their total at the end of the round. So in Jared's case, with a handicap of 6, his 61 becomes a net score of 55, his 64 becomes a 58, and so on. It works the same way, just doesn't have the special proprietary look of the "performance score".