I trust the accuracy of my Pinnacle Rival. Straight over the water. From the short I would go straight at it, from the long I would aim for the right side of the water. At the power and low height I would be aiming for, if I hit my line, no problems. If I miss my line, it is likely because I pushed it right because of a little OAT. That should make it close should still be dry.
Finish up with the Soft Judge assuming everything went to plan. If there is a little FUBAR, I am assuming I would pick my mid shot according to what tree is in my way.