Originally Posted by BionicRib
I asked Chuck a similar question a few days ago. I do see what you are getting at and after reading that file you linked me too.......I would say that it there are two issues that will take time to help with these correlation coefficients. 1. Is as you mentioned.....Course design...."luck golf/tweener holes/bad design". Having clearer definitions that are practiced by "all" designers across the country is a work in progress. 2. IMO....and I'm sure Chuck can clear this up better than I, but is there really enough data to work with? I personally don't think so. If disc golf were as popular as baseball or golf for that matter, the numbers would be more "fine tuned" because you have more players. More players equals more data. You have a fifty fifty chance of getting heads or tails when flipping a coin. If you flip it 100 times I bet you never get 50/50 on the dot.......(more like 70/30 or 60/40). If you flip it a million times you will get closer and closer to that "50/50" on paper. Just my thoughts
Oh definitely, due to sample size problems, the inherent random nature of disc golf (somewhat mitigated by course and equipment design), and physical/muscular limitations on just how 'controllable' disc golf is, period, getting a 100% correlation coefficient between player rating and event score is going to be impossible.. not to mention not ideal anyway.
However my hope is, that with one slight adjustment to how player round ratings (and by extension player ratings) are calculated, we can very, very slightly increase the correlation coefficient between (initial) player rating and event score. I don't really know what could be expected in terms of improvement with this one change.. probably less than 1%.. but as I said, I don't have the ability to determine this, due to not having access to the *exact* same rating methodology that the PDGA uses.