Originally Posted by jeverett
Oh definitely, due to sample size problems, the inherent random nature of disc golf (somewhat mitigated by course and equipment design), and physical/muscular limitations on just how 'controllable' disc golf is, period, getting a 100% correlation coefficient between player rating and event score is going to be impossible.. not to mention not ideal anyway.
However my hope is, that with one slight adjustment to how player round ratings (and by extension player ratings) are calculated, we can very, very slightly increase the correlation coefficient between (initial) player rating and event score. I don't really know what could be expected in terms of improvement with this one change.. probably less than 1%.. but as I said, I don't have the ability to determine this, due to not having access to the *exact* same rating methodology that the PDGA uses.
I will preface this by saying that currently my teaching schedule has me too busy to look through data and figure out exact models. In May, it will be in between Spring and Summer semesters and I will have plenty of time to look into the data and actually test some of my theories.
You make a very valid point that the binary model may not be as accurate as a linear model. (This is a classic cost of simplicity debate). However, I believe that this is also not accurate. It is likely that we should be looking at a quadratic of some sort. Although I am not sure of what model I would specifically fit to the design, the difference between harder or easier courses is likely not linear.
I also plan on looking into the lag that is used for ratings. Specifically the use and value of rounds played over 6 months previously.