Originally Posted by sprintermatt
OK, a 62 as the hot round in the morning will be rated differently than a 62 that is 5 off the hot round in the afternoon.... that is, if the same propogators (players) play the round. Conditions do not account for the factor of good old luck/skill. A player who averages 930 but shoots the round of his life of 1030 will bring all the scores down as his is vaulted up. It's the law of averages. If 10 people have 10 apples each, and joey ends up with 19, then everyone else will average 9 apples.
How you like them apples?
That just comes down to overall sample size, though. One anomalous (good) round in a pool of 10 players may have a significant effect on the round ratings, but as sample size increases the effect gets smaller and smaller (as well as eventually cancelled out by anomalous (bad) rounds.
Also, players need to have at least 8 prior rated rounds in order to count as propagators for the SSA calculation, further diminishing the chances of them suddenly putting up a round 100 points above their rating. Statistically, ~90% of the time players shoot within +/- 30 of their rating.