#11  
Old 04-17-2009, 12:21 PM
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ERicJ ERicJ is offline
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Originally Posted by t i m View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERicJ View Post
Weather can significantly effect the SSA of a course, especially if there are a lot of AMs playing the course. In the calculation of the SSA a player rated 1020 factors in with the same weight as a player rated 820. However, in adverse conditions the 1000+ rated player is much more likely to shoot closer to their rating. Whereas lower skilled AM players are typically more volatile in their scoring and when you add in adverse weather they typically even worse. So if your player pool is populated by a lot of lower skilled players and the rain is pouring and the wind is howling expect to see a significantly higher SSA than if you had a player pool of all Pros.
Not necessarily true. Even pros take quite a few hits from the wind. I don't think skill level of the players matters that much -- wind affects everyone. And in crazy conditions, the SSA for a course will be several strokes high no matter who is playing.

For pros, the wind is not going to affect their drives as much, but it will mean they make a lot less long putts, which will add several strokes per round.

For low-rated players, they take a lot more 3s, 4s and 5s anyway. Low-rated players loose the most strokes on putts. Short putts hit metal or miss close and then they just have a drop in. If you're a low-rated player and you're shooting a lot of 4s on a clear day, wind may not matter that much -- you'll still take a lot of the same 4s if you play at all smart.

And a lot of mid-rated players are folks who have been playing for a long time and are pretty smart and have good mental games, and the wind actually helps them shoot better than their peers -- relatively speaking.

Wind/rain/other adverse conditions does add to scores, but I think it affects every skill range of player in a pretty similar way.
That's why I said "can significantly effect"... but I stand by my position that wind effects lower rated players more significantly than Pros.

I do agree with much of what you said, especially about experienced players who can handle wind outscoring up-and-coming players with the same rating but less experience. However, your statement of "if you play at all smart" is a huge "if" when it comes to lower rated players. Many of them will either try to throw the exact same shot as if there was no wind, or go to the other extreme and way overcompensate.
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  #12  
Old 04-17-2009, 12:51 PM
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DavidSauls DavidSauls is offline
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My guess is that heavy winds do affect weaker players more than stronger players. Weaker players, especially less experienced players, are more likely to make serious, stroke-adding mistakes because they don't know how to handle the wind. Putts that don't just miss, but sail away. Drives that flip catastrophically. Bad disc choices. Less ability to recover from a bad shot. Playing wind, and playing it well, is definitely an acquired skill. (One I hope to acquire one day).

A lot of things affect ratings from round to round, and a lot more things are claimed. Like how many 1000+ rated players are present. I'm not sure how great a difference it matters.

But one other thing that affects SSAs from round to round, and prevents us from definitely stating a course's rating, is that baskets are moved, alternate teepads are used, course designs are changed over time, etc.

Nevertheless, I'm impressed with how well it all works. My rating wanders from 900-920. If I shoot 940, I've shot well, and it feels like I shot well, no matter the course or score. The 950-rated players I shoot against, I can beat with about the same consistency (oh, about 10% pr 20% of the time), the 970s, almost never.
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Old 04-17-2009, 03:47 PM
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tamahawk tamahawk is offline
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Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
A player's rating is determined by his average round rating over a certain number of recent rounds, though any rounds deviating too much are dropped.

The 10-points-per-stroke is an approximation. It depends on the course. On easier courses it might be 12-points-per-stroke; on harder ones, 7 or 8.

A given course's SSA is the score that produced a 1000-rated round. Courses don't have fixed SSAs, but if the layout stays the same, the SSA will be very close to the same from event to event.

So, for example....if the SSA of a course is 50---that is, in tournaments a score of 50 produces a 1000 rating.....you can roughly guess that a score of 60 will produce a 900 rating. Or, to reverse it, if your rating is 900, expect to shoot about 60.
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Originally Posted by ERicJ View Post
Very well put.

A couple things I'll add. The SSA (Scratch Scoring Average) is the score a 1000-rated player would expect to average on that course. Since it is an average it will obviously vary from round to round.

Weather can significantly effect the SSA of a course, especially if there are a lot of AMs playing the course. In the calculation of the SSA a player rated 1020 factors in with the same weight as a player rated 820. However, in adverse conditions the 1000+ rated player is much more likely to shoot closer to their rating. Whereas lower skilled AM players are typically more volatile in their scoring and when you add in adverse weather they typically even worse. So if your player pool is populated by a lot of lower skilled players and the rain is pouring and the wind is howling expect to see a significantly higher SSA than if you had a player pool of all Pros.

Thanks for the explanation, it makes a lot more sense now. I appreciate the info!
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Old 04-17-2009, 09:47 PM
SomeChump SomeChump is offline
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I'm not sure how accurate it is but comparing you handicap to mine I would say you would be rated around 800 to 825.

That would place you in the novice division. A lot of tournaments don't have novice/recreational divisions so you would likely play with the intermediates.
I've played in one mini. I entered the rec division and placed second of 12. My score would have placed me midway up the advanced division so I felt like maybe I was sandbagging. But it was my best round on that course ever.
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  #15  
Old 04-17-2009, 10:15 PM
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Lewis Lewis is offline
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I won the Rec division of my local Ice Bowl by 1 stroke. My score also would have been midway up the Advanced division. I'm playing in another unsanctioned tournament, a fundraiser event for the same course, in the morning, and I'm planning on playing Advanced. I'm not afraid of getting beat, so as long as I don't finish last by a gap, I figure it's where I belong. If I were to become a PDGA member and go play in an A or B-tier tournament, I suppose I would have to play Rec or Intermediate again. By all this I mean to say the division that's right for you depends on whom the tournament draws.
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  #16  
Old 04-18-2009, 01:21 AM
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ERicJ ERicJ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
A lot of things affect ratings from round to round, and a lot more things are claimed. Like how many 1000+ rated players are present. I'm not sure how great a difference it matters.
It doesn't directly matter. I.e. there's no change in the formula if more than five, ten, or twenty 1000+ rated players show up. Like I said before: the score that a 1000+ rated player shoots counts with the same weight that the score an 820 rated player shoots.

Where it does have a secondary effect is this... higher rated players are more consistent and tend to shoot closer to their ratings on average. So the more higher rated players you have in proportion to the entry list the more accurate the SSA and resulting ratings should be. The volatility of scoring among lesser skilled players has the potential skew the SSA if the total population of players at an event is small.

I will note that only players with ratings >799 are used to calculate the SSA because of this scoring volatility.
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