#41  
Old 12-11-2013, 02:23 PM
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Martin Dewgarita Martin Dewgarita is offline
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To add a personal experience.

I played MA2 for my first 3 tourneys, I won 2 c tiers and took 4th in an A tier. I thought, boy this game is easy, I'm going to move up. MA1 was exponentially more difficult, my first tourney was an A tier and I struggled to not finish dfl. My first year in B and C tiers too I was competing for dfl, it took me 2 years of that before I really saw improvement in my game and could be competitive in MA1
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  #42  
Old 12-11-2013, 03:40 PM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
...To do this, I found the difference of two normal distributions
I'd bet the distribution isn't normal, or even symmetric. For any given event, it's much easier to play a lot worse than it is to play a lot better.

A lot of the "upsets" will come from the higher skilled player playing badly that day, rather then the lower skilled player doing really well.
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  #43  
Old 12-11-2013, 03:45 PM
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jeverett jeverett is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve West View Post
I'd bet the distribution isn't normal, or even symmetric. For any given event, it's much easier to play a lot worse than it is to play a lot better.

A lot of the "upsets" will come from the higher skilled player playing badly that day, rather then the lower skilled player doing really well.
I'd agree with this. Determining even a rough ballpark distribution seems to me like a headache, even if we reduce it to only win/loss (as opposed to percentage distribution of round score vs. SSA). I'd definitely suspect that the distribution is neither normal or symmetric. :P To some extent, it also is going to be player-specific, as well. Even taking account player-specific standard deviation (i.e. how much any particular player deviates from their own rating), there's going to be a huge variance across equally-rated players in terms of their scoring or win/loss distribution. :P
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