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-   -   Official Ask Discmania Thread (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/showthread.php?t=103883)

Flick Maniac 06-24-2021 01:30 PM

Jul-Aug is what theyre saying

Rastnav 06-24-2021 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jakebake91 (Post 3731422)
To be fair.....that's not the "profit".

More to the point, if the sale of 17,000 discs could meaningfully give the headroom to substantially increase production capacity in the short term, weíd already be knee-high in discs.

dehaas 06-24-2021 02:30 PM

The more I think about it, the more I realize how well the last couple of days were handled.

I know I saw about 8,500 pairs available at launch on Tuesday when I placed my order, but others have said they saw closer to 10,000. There were restocks yesterday, not sure how many additional sets. I believe I saw people claiming there were restocks later on Tuesday also.

Probably safe to say there were way many more available than what people were expecting. One pair per customer was fair, and I felt the pricing was fair as well. Stock P2ís have an MSRP of $12.99, so an upcharge of $5 per disc for a prototype run is reasonable. Lunaís are $19.99.

Totally understandable that itíll take a few months to build up enough inventory for a stock P2 release, especially considering there will be three different stiffnesses. The promise to keep running more until the crazy demand subsides is a smart move, especially for a putter, which people tend to buy in multiples. Theyíll sell an MFT of P2ís.

Anybody else think itís kinda funny that after the inventory struggles and announcing the split with Innova they blow it out of the water with a massive P2 drop? Not saying there was any public rubbing it in Innovaís face, but to me that was the dg equivalent of a mic drop.

soothsayer 06-24-2021 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dehaas (Post 3731497)
Anybody else think itís kinda funny that after the inventory struggles and announcing the split with Innova they blow it out of the water with a massive P2 drop? Not saying there was any public rubbing it in Innovaís face, but to me that was the dg equivalent of a mic drop.

Yeah, seriously. The fact that they sold somewhere around 17,000 to 20,000 discs in a couple of days is definitely a statement. Not sure if Innova really cares though, they're about to drop a crap ton of Sexton Firebirds and those will sell out instantly.

seedlings 06-24-2021 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jakebake91 (Post 3731422)
To be fair.....that's not the "profit".

But itís all in the bank.:cool:

BillFleming 06-24-2021 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dehaas (Post 3731497)
Anybody else think itís kinda funny that after the inventory struggles and announcing the split with Innova they blow it out of the water with a massive P2 drop? Not saying there was any public rubbing it in Innovaís face, but to me that was the dg equivalent of a mic drop.

I don't think Innova cares. They might even have a 'good for you' attitude about it. Remember, Innova has to make their own discs along with discs for other brands (such as Infinite). Discmania leaving, just gives Innova more time to make their own and other brand's discs.

If Discmania stayed with Innova....who's discs would have to wait during the time Innova was making Discmania's production? My guess is that Innova's equipment is running constantly regardless of them producing Discmania discs or not.

Rastnav 06-24-2021 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by seedlings (Post 3731560)
But it’s all in the bank.:cool:

I'm sure you would not expect the plastic manufacturers and the employees to work for free. Nor would you want them to stiff Jomez and DGN what they owe them for advertising, renege on their outstanding loan payments, not pay the lease on any locations they do not own, nor fail to pay any of the other myriad of expenditures required for their ongoing operations. In order to make the next batch of discs they have to plan for appropriate cash flow in order to pay for the resources. That’s the way you need to think about that money that’s “in the bank”, it’s mostly going to pay for the discs they just shipped or the next batch of discs they will manufacture (i.e. the bills they have coming due for all of those things). Absent taking care of all that, the new machine wouldn’t ever actually make anything.

The net revenue from any batch of disc sales is not the same as what they have free to spend on new capital expenditures. And we don’t even know that $300K is enough to fully pay for everything that would go into adding another production line. Manufacturing can be extremely expensive, as we’ve seen with the discussion of the mold prices.

And then there is the question of how selling out a single batch of discs that they surely counted on selling out would somehow change their calculations for what kind of manufacturing capacity is optimal for them going forward. They have (almost certainly) planned this acquisition of manufacturing capacity, and any subsequent improvements and increases carefully. It may be that they are currently sourcing more equipment, but that’s likely money already spent (from a budgeting perspective), based on forecast demand. In order to bring any new capacity on line in the near term, they’d already need to be well down the road on it, having ordered the build of the equipment, planned for the appropriate space, considered how installation and new employee training would impact ongoing manufacturing, etc. If their demand forecast supports adding more machines, they should already have it in the works.

Finally, obtaining enough current manufacturing capacity to rapidly address pent up demand isn’t likely to be a sound strategy. A large chunk of the current demand is a temporary spike based on building out enough capacity to satisfy temporary demand just leaves you with idle capacity in the future. Every disc manufacturer is currently facing this same conundrum, wondering if the COVID spike will last; it’s even more important for DM to navigate this successfully, as they have had surprised capacity versus demand even before COVID hit. Their plans depend on making enough discs fast enough to pay down the excess demand fast enough to retain customers, while leaving themselves in a good position when they get back to baseline demand. And that should be based on their projections, not one successful sale of a run if discs.

pjhayes7 06-24-2021 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rastnav (Post 3731603)
I'm sure you would not expect the plastic manufacturers and the employees to work for free. Nor would you want them to stiff Jomez and DGN what they owe them for advertising, renege on their outstanding loan payments, not pay the lease on any locations they do not own, nor fail to pay any of the other myriad of expenditures required for their ongoing operations. In order to make the next batch of discs they have to plan for appropriate cash flow in order to pay for the resources. Thatís the way you need to think about that money thatís ďin the bankĒ, itís mostly going to pay for the discs they just shipped or the next batch of discs they will manufacture (i.e. the bills they have coming due for all of those things). Absent taking care of all that, the new machine wouldnít ever actually make anything.

The net revenue from any batch of disc sales is not the same as what they have free to spend on new capital expenditures. And we donít even know that $300K is enough to fully pay for everything that would go into adding another production line. Manufacturing can be extremely expensive, as weíve seen with the discussion of the mold prices.

And then there is the question of how selling out a single batch of discs that they surely counted on selling out would somehow change their calculations for what kind of manufacturing capacity is optimal for them going forward. They have (almost certainly) planned this acquisition of manufacturing capacity, and any subsequent improvements and increases carefully. It may be that they are currently sourcing more equipment, but thatís likely money already spent (from a budgeting perspective), based on forecast demand. In order to bring any new capacity on line in the near term, theyíd already need to be well down the road on it, having ordered the build of the equipment, planned for the appropriate space, considered how installation and new employee training would impact ongoing manufacturing, etc. If their demand forecast supports adding more machines, they should already have it in the works.

Finally, obtaining enough current manufacturing capacity to rapidly address pent up demand isnít likely to be a sound strategy. A large chunk of the current demand is a temporary spike based on building out enough capacity to satisfy temporary demand just leaves you with idle capacity in the future. Every disc manufacturer is currently facing this same conundrum, wondering if the COVID spike will last; itís even more important for DM to navigate this successfully, as they have had surprised capacity versus demand even before COVID hit. Their plans depend on making enough discs fast enough to pay down the excess demand fast enough to retain customers, while leaving themselves in a good position when they get back to baseline demand. And that should be based on their projections, not one successful sale of a run if discs.

After reading that, when do I receive my MBA diploma? ;)

dehaas 06-24-2021 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillFleming (Post 3731562)
I don't think Innova cares. They might even have a 'good for you' attitude about it. Remember, Innova has to make their own discs along with discs for other brands (such as Infinite). Discmania leaving, just gives Innova more time to make their own and other brand's discs.

If Discmania stayed with Innova....who's discs would have to wait during the time Innova was making Discmania's production? My guess is that Innova's equipment is running constantly regardless of them producing Discmania discs or not.

I agree with you in regards to their machines probably running 24/7 at this point, and theyíre just producing plastic for themselves or another company and still making money.

Youíre going to see a lot more Discmania discs in circulation now that they have control of their own manufacturing. A direct competitor finally removing the handcuffs is the bigger issue for Innova.

soothsayer 06-24-2021 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillFleming (Post 3731562)
My guess is that Innova's equipment is running constantly regardless of them producing Discmania discs or not.

yep, pretty much this.


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