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soothsayer 06-24-2021 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rastnav (Post 3731603)
I'm sure you would not expect the plastic manufacturers and the employees to work for free. Nor would you want them to stiff Jomez and DGN what they owe them for advertising, renege on their outstanding loan payments, not pay the lease on any locations they do not own, nor fail to pay any of the other myriad of expenditures required for their ongoing operations. In order to make the next batch of discs they have to plan for appropriate cash flow in order to pay for the resources. That’s the way you need to think about that money that’s “in the bank”, it’s mostly going to pay for the discs they just shipped or the next batch of discs they will manufacture (i.e. the bills they have coming due for all of those things). Absent taking care of all that, the new machine wouldn’t ever actually make anything.

The net revenue from any batch of disc sales is not the same as what they have free to spend on new capital expenditures. And we don’t even know that $300K is enough to fully pay for everything that would go into adding another production line. Manufacturing can be extremely expensive, as we’ve seen with the discussion of the mold prices.

And then there is the question of how selling out a single batch of discs that they surely counted on selling out would somehow change their calculations for what kind of manufacturing capacity is optimal for them going forward. They have (almost certainly) planned this acquisition of manufacturing capacity, and any subsequent improvements and increases carefully. It may be that they are currently sourcing more equipment, but that’s likely money already spent (from a budgeting perspective), based on forecast demand. In order to bring any new capacity on line in the near term, they’d already need to be well down the road on it, having ordered the build of the equipment, planned for the appropriate space, considered how installation and new employee training would impact ongoing manufacturing, etc. If their demand forecast supports adding more machines, they should already have it in the works.

Finally, obtaining enough current manufacturing capacity to rapidly address pent up demand isn’t likely to be a sound strategy. A large chunk of the current demand is a temporary spike based on building out enough capacity to satisfy temporary demand just leaves you with idle capacity in the future. Every disc manufacturer is currently facing this same conundrum, wondering if the COVID spike will last; it’s even more important for DM to navigate this successfully, as they have had surprised capacity versus demand even before COVID hit. Their plans depend on making enough discs fast enough to pay down the excess demand fast enough to retain customers, while leaving themselves in a good position when they get back to baseline demand. And that should be based on their projections, not one successful sale of a run if discs.


TL;DR?

Rastnav 06-24-2021 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soothsayer (Post 3731629)
TL;DR?


If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.

:D

seedlings 06-24-2021 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rastnav (Post 3731603)
I'm sure you would not expect the plastic manufacturers and the employees to work for free. Nor would you want them to stiff Jomez and DGN what they owe them for advertising, renege on their outstanding loan payments, not pay the lease on any locations they do not own, nor fail to pay any of the other myriad of expenditures required for their ongoing operations. In order to make the next batch of discs they have to plan for appropriate cash flow in order to pay for the resources. That’s the way you need to think about that money that’s “in the bank”, it’s mostly going to pay for the discs they just shipped or the next batch of discs they will manufacture (i.e. the bills they have coming due for all of those things). Absent taking care of all that, the new machine wouldn’t ever actually make anything.

The net revenue from any batch of disc sales is not the same as
what they have free to spend on new capital expenditures. And we don’t even know that $300K is enough to fully pay for everything that would go into adding another production line. Manufacturing can be extremely expensive, as we’ve seen with the discussion of the mold prices.

And then there is the question of how selling out a single batch of
discs that they surely counted on selling out would somehow change their calculations for what kind of manufacturing capacity is optimal for them going forward. They have (almost certainly) planned this acquisition of manufacturing capacity, and any subsequent improvements and increases carefully. It may be that they are currently sourcing more equipment, but that’s likely money already spent (from a budgeting perspective), based on forecast demand. In order to bring any new capacity on line in the near term, they’d already need to be well down the road on it, having ordered the build of the equipment, planned for the appropriate space, considered how installation and new employee training would impact ongoing manufacturing, etc. If their demand forecast supports adding more machines, they should already have it in the works.

Finally, obtaining enough current manufacturing capacity to rapidly address pent up demand isn’t likely to be a sound strategy. A large
chunk of the current demand is a temporary spike based on building out enough capacity to satisfy temporary demand just leaves you with idle capacity in the future. Every disc manufacturer is currently facing this same conundrum, wondering if the COVID spike will last; it’s even more important for DM to navigate this successfully, as they have had surprised capacity versus demand even before COVID hit. Their plans depend on making enough discs fast enough to pay down the excess demand fast enough to retain customers, while leaving themselves in a good position when they get back to baseline demand. And that should be based on their projections, not one successful sale of a run if discs.

I did not use the proper sarcasm emojis.
:confused:

But, back on topic, Discmania, I am excited to start shopping your discs again. My apologies for concern-mongering.

Lumberjack504 06-25-2021 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ray1970 (Post 3731420)
Obviously I wouldn’t expect it any time soon but I would eventually love to see some P3X’s. Not sure if they’re big enough sellers for Discmania but they’ve always been high on my list of favorite putters off the tee. They’ll handle a strong shot off the tee with a reliable finish but aren’t as beefy as something like a Zone or Harp.


My #1 favorite throwing putter. Overstable, but not beefy, with glide. Magical.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

klodkrawler05 06-25-2021 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soothsayer (Post 3731504)
Not sure if Innova really cares though, they're about to drop a crap ton of Sexton Firebirds and those will sell out instantly.

Scary how accurate you were. 7 hours later this prophecy came true.

Discmania_Support 06-25-2021 12:28 PM

Discmania Support Reply
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ray1970 (Post 3731420)
Obviously I wouldn’t expect it any time soon but I would eventually love to see some P3X’s. Not sure if they’re big enough sellers for Discmania but they’ve always been high on my list of favorite putters off the tee. They’ll handle a strong shot off the tee with a reliable finish but aren’t as beefy as something like a Zone or Harp.

It's tough to say with certainty that it'll come back but also with certainty, it hasn't been planned to remove from production either. These molds will begin to emerge little by little and eventually we'll be back to the collection of discs that everyone knows and loves. 2022 will bring a few more in addition to these five this year and we'll just keep cranking away.

Quote:

Originally Posted by soothsayer (Post 3731440)
Hey Discmania person:

How long till I can get my hands on a Mutant? My Eagle Splice is getting here today :) All I need is the Mutant and my OS slots will be taken care of!

It's looking like July for the Mutant. We're making more of them currently to add to the batch at the moment. Sorry for the extended wait but people are going to be happier for it, for sure.

Discmania_Support 06-25-2021 12:29 PM

Is it possible do double like this? Great points here

dehaas 06-25-2021 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discmania_Support (Post 3731806)
It's tough to say with certainty that it'll come back but also with certainty, it hasn't been planned to remove from production either. These molds will begin to emerge little by little and eventually we'll be back to the collection of discs that everyone knows and loves. 2022 will bring a few more in addition to these five this year and we'll just keep cranking away.

Has it been decided if some of the molds within the Originals line will be retired altogether or possibly see a slight redesign to minimize overlap with other models?

I’m thinking along the lines of the TDx, which didn’t really have a lot of turn. P3 wasn’t a ton more OS than the P2 (although shaped way different). PDx, PD3, and PD2 have similar numbers, things like that.

Some of those were similar enough to existing models that I think they may have cannibalized each other. Having control of the design provides an opportunity to spread models out a bit. Totally get putting the priority on high demand models, but some of those lesser known models could be resurrected into something pretty sweet.

Jolt 06-25-2021 02:42 PM

I liked the old P3 . . but if Discmania can make copies of molds why not just copy the Zone and call it P3
. . . and copy the Fierce and call it P0

seedlings 06-25-2021 04:31 PM

Got my shipping notice on the P2 order. :hfive:


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