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Monocacy 06-19-2020 02:30 PM


Originally Posted by pearlybakerbest (Post 3598327)
. . . the number of U.S. cases is probably higher than shown.

The number of U.S. cases is certainly higher than shown. For example, per IHME on June 10th:

21,081 confirmed cases
82,765 estimated cases (range = 75,025 - 94,384)

So IHME estimates roughly four times as many actual cases compared with confirmed cases. Other sources have similar estimates.
How are you modeling estimated and confirmed infections?

For estimated infections, we start with death estimates, then work backward, using infection fatality ratios to estimate infections based on deaths. Confirmed infections are based on case data from the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data repository on Github, averaged over the last 3 days to account for delays in reporting.
IHME COVID-19 Projections (clicky)

Hampstead 06-19-2020 07:32 PM


Ess-dog 06-20-2020 02:51 PM


Originally Posted by R-Ogre (Post 3597511)
...We are collectively too stupid and selfish to survive...

Humans overestimate their abilities. The stubbornness/bravado that allows us to sacrifice ourselves for the greater good has dangerous consequence as we grow populations and our ability to destroy populations exponentially. Add in the glory of mass participation in stupidity and the hard wired feeling that others are working against your kind and we have a big challenge to find agreement on what the "truths" of anything are.

ohtobediscing 06-20-2020 03:15 PM

Well, I'm ready to be beamed up. :|

Hampstead 06-26-2020 06:41 PM


I take it the answer is no.

ru4por 06-26-2020 10:35 PM


Originally Posted by Hampstead (Post 3600837)

The answer has been no all along, IMO.

Hampstead 06-26-2020 10:48 PM


Originally Posted by ru4por (Post 3600912)
The answer has been no all along, IMO.

I don't disagree. Our desire for freedom is a blessing and a curse. Politicizing safety hasn't helped either.

DavidSauls 06-26-2020 10:52 PM

I asked repeatedly, back in April: "Is New York the worst? Or just the first?"

My dear state of South Carolina is now #2 in daily infections per million.

Monocacy 06-26-2020 11:02 PM

Sorry to hear that, David.

Yeah when I see pictures of packed bars with nobody wearing a mask, I immediately picture graphs of rising infection curves and positive testing rates.

BogeyNoMore 06-26-2020 11:08 PM

I'm trying to figure out if Americans are just worse at distancing and "common sense" precautions like frequent had washing, masks, etc, or...

if we're just to wrapped up in our own sense of freedom and independence to give a chit.:\

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