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ru4por 07-07-2020 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guurn (Post 3604327)
This is bunk. You should read a little science around the subject, you sound like a denier. The area under the curve (which we were trying to bend) was always the same. If you look at the current data the death rates are going down while the number of infected is going up. This is a 2 part thing. Our treatments have gotten better yes, but mostly the average age of the people infected has gone down. There are many reasons for this, young people are going out (it is summer) and some awful governors have stopped sending positive cases into nursing homes.

Thing logically, if our goal is herd immunity or vaccine. We have to either get to some fixed percentage of the population infected and cured or get a breakthrough vaccine. That's it so far.

I think if you were to read this thread, Lefty has demonstrated he is not a denier. I think the quantity, quality and the demographic of whom we are now testing has a LOT to do with the death rate vs. infected rate.

I think herd immunity is a concept, never really proven and certainly nothing more than a guess at this point. The cost of exploring this option would be a LOT of dead people. I believe that infecting as few people as possible, for as long as possible, provides for the best scenario to keep deaths at a minimum. This is also the best case scenario for the healthcare systems. I also believe that a vaccine is possible, though I am not one to believe that it will be soon.

Your posts seem to want to speak to absolutes and I don't think you really believe that. There is simply not enough data yet to do much more than speculate.

R-Ogre 07-07-2020 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ru4por (Post 3604505)
I think if you were to read this thread, Lefty has demonstrated he is not a denier. I think the quantity, quality and the demographic of whom we are now testing has a LOT to do with the death rate vs. infected rate.

I think herd immunity is a concept, never really proven and certainly nothing more than a guess at this point. The cost of exploring this option would be a LOT of dead people. I believe that infecting as few people as possible, for as long as possible, provides for the best scenario to keep deaths at a minimum. This is also the best case scenario for the healthcare systems. I also believe that a vaccine is possible, though I am not one to believe that it will be soon.

Your posts seem to want to speak to absolutes and I don't think you really believe that. There is simply not enough data yet to do much more than speculate.

Smallpox, polio, common cold coronaviruses, and various forms of influenza have been endemic in humanity for centuries (millenia?) and we’ve only been able to control them with NPIs and vaccines. That coupled with the results of the various antibody surveys showing nowhere being near the theoretical herd immunity threshold should make it pretty obvious that suppression until vaccine is our only real option.

Broken Shoulder 07-08-2020 12:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by R-Ogre (Post 3604507)
Smallpox, polio, common cold coronaviruses, and various forms of influenza have been endemic in humanity for centuries (millenia?) and we’ve only been able to control them with NPIs and vaccines. That coupled with the results of the various antibody surveys showing nowhere being near the theoretical herd immunity threshold should make it pretty obvious that suppression until vaccine is our only real option.

Nope. Open it up, kill and affect a ton of people. I want my butt in a pew and a Denny's Grand Slam after, damnit, and I won't give that up for Grandma.


*turns off sarcasm*

Binky Yutz 07-08-2020 02:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavidSauls (Post 3603584)
I believe the annual flu numbers are 30-40K. There were 62K two years ago, but that was one of the worst seasons in 50 years.

If everyone gets it it's 1% fatal, that's 3.3 million dead Americans. "Great killer" is a subjective term, but I'd apply it in that case.

I believe you missed the point.....let me rephrase.....apparently my numbers were wrong...

Influenza kills a bunch of people every year, and has done so for a very long time, certainly much longer than just the past decade. Yet we do not close the economy and take away peoples rights of assembly and religion, because of it.

Here is a thought in that same vein......automobile accidents kill a bunch of people every year, I am sure you guys can find the correct numbers, heaven knows I don't want to mislead anyone (did you catch the sarcasm there). Even though a lot of people die on the highways, we haven't banned cars. Most of you will get in your car tomorrow and leave your driveway and never even have it cross your mind that this may be the trip that kills you. Maybe we can set the national speed limit to 15 MPH, or put restrictor plates on all vehicles, so that no one has to die in a tragic auto accident. (more sarcasm, but you probably caught that)

Is that comparing Apples and Oranges? Maybe. It is certainly no worse a comparison than Mr Sauls stadium massacre scenario.

Those who sacrifice freedom for safety, will have neither freedom nor safety. Do any of you know that quote? It is now more true than ever.

There is only one absolute in this life....no one here gets out alive.


And to Ru4Por, isn't it enough that I am paying a mortgage on a house I am not living in, to move back home to help with an aging parent, without getting lip from you on KILLING MY OWN MOTHER....although you did not quote me, it sure sounded like it was intended for me.

Mask shaming at it's finest....good job Eric Foreman....anyone remember how Red refers to Eric......??

Smigles 07-08-2020 03:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Binky Yutz (Post 3604541)
Influenza kills a bunch of people every year, and has done so for a very long time, certainly much longer than just the past decade. Yet we do not close the economy and take away peoples rights of assembly and religion, because of it.

1: Influenza is not as deadly as covid
2: Influenza is not new. We have treatments, we have vaccines. We know the illness. Covid is a new kid on the block and you can see globally that some countries might have over reacted, others certainly have under reacted (like Brazil). And then there is the US where once again a scientific issue is a matter of politics and belief.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Binky Yutz (Post 3604541)
Those who sacrifice freedom for safety, will have neither freedom nor safety. Do any of you know that quote? It is now more true than ever.

We live in a society with other people around. We sacrifice our freedoms every day. It's part of living together. freedom is overrated.

DavidSauls 07-08-2020 06:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Binky Yutz (Post 3604541)
I believe you missed the point.....let me rephrase.....apparently my numbers were wrong...

Influenza kills a bunch of people every year, and has done so for a very long time, certainly much longer than just the past decade. Yet we do not close the economy and take away peoples rights of assembly and religion, because of it.

Here is a thought in that same vein......automobile accidents kill a bunch of people every year, I am sure you guys can find the correct numbers, heaven knows I don't want to mislead anyone (did you catch the sarcasm there). Even though a lot of people die on the highways, we haven't banned cars. Most of you will get in your car tomorrow and leave your driveway and never even have it cross your mind that this may be the trip that kills you. Maybe we can set the national speed limit to 15 MPH, or put restrictor plates on all vehicles, so that no one has to die in a tragic auto accident. (more sarcasm, but you probably caught that)

Is that comparing Apples and Oranges? Maybe. It is certainly no worse a comparison than Mr Sauls stadium massacre scenario.

Those who sacrifice freedom for safety, will have neither freedom nor safety. Do any of you know that quote? It is now more true than ever.

It's a matter of scale. Flu, automobiles, guns all kill about 3,000 per month. They would fewer if we shut down the economy, but we've decided that the cure would be worse than the disease. We don't let them run amuck---we promote flu vaccines, limit weapons, and have also sorts of restrictions on our freedom for cars (speed limits, intoxication, lines to keep us on one side of the road).

Covid-19 killed 60,000 in one month, and averaged 40,000 per month over the previous 3 months. And that's with the extreme measures we took to suppress it. How many would it kill if treated it like flu and let it kill as many as possible? How many others would die of other conditions, if we let it overwhelm our health care system? Plus, there's no guarantee that the economy would go back to roaring at 2019 levels if going out carried that much risk.

DavidSauls 07-08-2020 07:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Binky Yutz (Post 3604541)
Is that comparing Apples and Oranges? Maybe. It is certainly no worse a comparison than Mr Sauls stadium massacre scenario.

My stadium massacre scenario (with a math error) was in response to a post that said (1) everyone will get it (2) 99% will survive and (3) that's fine.

It was a demonstration that 99% survival may sound high, but it's not really all that great---particularly if applied to everyone.

BogeyNoMore 07-08-2020 07:29 AM

People who feel that being told to wear a mask in public is trampling on their constitutional rights simply refuse to grasp the mathematics of the situation. They're also the ones screaming the loudest to open things back up.

The irony being that if everyone wore masks, it would be much safer to open things back up. Anyone who doesn't think masks will greatly reduce the spread of the virus is denying medical evidence.

I'm more than thankful to live in a country where we have more freedom than any other country. But those freedoms are seldom completely unrestricted.

Life is a series of trade-offs. Which freedom do we want more? The freedom of being able to avoid wearing masks and having to social distance, or the freedom to open up and try to conduct business in "the new normal?"

DavidSauls 07-08-2020 07:39 AM

I understand the Freedom of Assembly argument. I'm not sure where the Freedom from Facemasks is hidden in the constitution.

ru4por 07-08-2020 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Binky Yutz (Post 3604541)
I believe you missed the point.....let me rephrase.....apparently my numbers were wrong...

Influenza kills a bunch of people every year, and has done so for a very long time, certainly much longer than just the past decade. Yet we do not close the economy and take away peoples rights of assembly and religion, because of it.

Here is a thought in that same vein......automobile accidents kill a bunch of people every year, I am sure you guys can find the correct numbers, heaven knows I don't want to mislead anyone (did you catch the sarcasm there). Even though a lot of people die on the highways, we haven't banned cars. Most of you will get in your car tomorrow and leave your driveway and never even have it cross your mind that this may be the trip that kills you. Maybe we can set the national speed limit to 15 MPH, or put restrictor plates on all vehicles, so that no one has to die in a tragic auto accident. (more sarcasm, but you probably caught that)

Is that comparing Apples and Oranges? Maybe. It is certainly no worse a comparison than Mr Sauls stadium massacre scenario.

Those who sacrifice freedom for safety, will have neither freedom nor safety. Do any of you know that quote? It is now more true than ever.

There is only one absolute in this life....no one here gets out alive.

rel
And to Ru4Por, isn't it enough that I am paying a mortgage on a house I am not living in, to move back home to help with an aging parent, without getting lip from you on KILLING MY OWN MOTHER....although you did not quote me, it sure sounded like it was intended for me.

Mask shaming at it's finest....good job Eric Foreman....anyone remember how Red refers to Eric......??

It was very much directed at you. I find the idea that you take care of an elderly adult, VERY much in a high risk category, yet find the idea of tiny sacrifices in your life too much. I am simply staggered by the misplacement of that priority. I get that the general welfare of people at large, or the health of all your religious compatriots, maybe outside your concern, but I cannot image willfully placing my own mother at risk for my selfish need to leave my house, doff a mask, congregate with others or avoid washing my hands. Perhaps I place less value on these "freedoms" than others, I don't know. Maybe I just see this as more of a cut and dried decision than many.

The economy was going to be trashed regardless of rules. Most people have enough common sense to not assemble, go to houses of worship, head to the bar or get a haircut. But as with all rules, they are needed for the minority that have little common sense or concern with anyone but themselves.

We are all scared, but why risk a 1% random chance at death? Why place a loved one at even greater risk? Why place dozens of loved ones, of others, at risk? Freedom? Rights? See they always have had limitations. They only extend to the end of your nose, the moment they infringe on the freedoms or rights of others, you are violating those of others. Protecting everyone's rights should be the common goal. Science is clearly demonstrating that many lives can be saved, by making simple sacrifices, for a very short period of our lives. I think saving lives is a just cause, hence my passion for this topic. You have the right to disagree, but I will never understand how or why.


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