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Smigles 04-09-2020 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjnoodlearm (Post 3572770)
The fact is you don't know and no one else knows what will/would/ happen under various scenarios. Its all a guessing game and the "experts" merely have slightly more informed guesses than the average rock.

This is not the first pandemic ever. Yes the experts actually know more than just guesswork. That's why they are the experts.

Stating something and just putting "fact is" in front of the sentence does not make it a fact.




Maths shows us what will happen and how many million people will die if you just let the virus spread uncontrolled. That is not guesswork. We have seen it before and the observations agree with the maths.

Epidologists know what steps are required to get out of a lockdown again. It's what i described in my last post. The only way to avoid a new spike in cases is a slow, step by step exit of the lockdown accompanied by extensive tracking and testing. South Korea did it and the rest of the world should learn form it. Again, this is not guesswork.

And the virologists know how long developing a vaccine will take. No guesswork in that either. There will not be a vaccine this year and i have not seen a single doctor, virologist or drug manufacturer say anything otherwise in three months of interviews.

Smigles 04-09-2020 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjnoodlearm (Post 3572770)
Ten lives? Really? Yes, let's wreck the national economy to save ten lives. Brilliant.

I have not seen numbers on this yet, but would be interested. All those companies that are allready asking for gouvernment money. I wonder how much they will pay their shareholders at the end of the year. I wonder how much money they will still have left in their accounts by the end of the year.

I dont buy that "the whole economy will collapse" after three weeks. It sounds like another redistribution of taxpayers money to the companies.

Not all of course. Smaller businesses, or people who work self employed certainly feel this much harder.

But companies like Amazon or the company i work for at the moment, CBRE. They are world wide multi quadrillion companies. I just dont believe that they are allready with their back to the walls.

Jugular 04-09-2020 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smigles (Post 3572788)
This is not the first pandemic ever. Yes the experts actually know more than just guesswork. That's why they are the experts.

Stating something and just putting "fact is" in front of the sentence does not make it a fact.

Maths shows us what will happen and how many million people will die if you just let the virus spread uncontrolled. That is not guesswork. We have seen it before and the observations agree with the maths.

Epidologists know what steps are required to get out of a lockdown again. It's what i described in my last post. The only way to avoid a new spike in cases is a slow, step by step exit of the lockdown accompanied by extensive tracking and testing. South Korea did it and the rest of the world should learn form it. Again, this is not guesswork.

And the virologists know how long developing a vaccine will take. No guesswork in that either. There will not be a vaccine this year and i have not seen a single doctor, virologist or drug manufacturer say anything otherwise in three months of interviews.

The mathematical models of virus spread are not as robust as you're suggesting. There are wide error bars on all their outputs, and those that are not putting such wide error bars don't understand their inputs well enough.

Virologists don't know exactly how long developing a vaccine will take, it's dependent on myriad factors. They may claim there are lower bounds on development but is only because of typical delays in a normal process, governments may choose to fast track potential candidates, manufacturers may find ways of speeding up their processes too.

There is enormous uncertainty in many of the assumptions. What is certain is that lockdowns will reduce infection spread and reduced infection spread will reduce the length of lockdown as we get to the different stages you mentioned earlier.

It doesn't do experts any favors to overstate their certainty just as much as understating it would.

DavidSauls 04-09-2020 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smigles (Post 3572788)
This is not the first pandemic ever. Yes the experts actually know more than just guesswork. That's why they are the experts.

Stating something and just putting "fact is" in front of the sentence does not make it a fact.




Maths shows us what will happen and how many million people will die if you just let the virus spread uncontrolled. That is not guesswork. We have seen it before and the observations agree with the maths.

Epidologists know what steps are required to get out of a lockdown again. It's what i described in my last post. The only way to avoid a new spike in cases is a slow, step by step exit of the lockdown accompanied by extensive tracking and testing. South Korea did it and the rest of the world should learn form it. Again, this is not guesswork.

And the virologists know how long developing a vaccine will take. No guesswork in that either. There will not be a vaccine this year and i have not seen a single doctor, virologist or drug manufacturer say anything otherwise in three months of interviews.

There's a good reason why some people, instead of calling them experts, call them "experts".

Those quotation marks supposedly invalidate thousands of lifetimes of careful study. Alas, a little strand of RNA may not respect that punctuation.

McCready 04-09-2020 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davetherocketguy (Post 3572680)
Right and at what point does the cure become worse than the disease? I'm not seeing anyone anywhere addressing that question which is why I am asking...For every life we save now under lockdown might cost us 10 in the near future.

Gosh, it seems like someone said this before. Someone really orange who only cares about his “ratings”.

I’m bracing myself for “patriots” to start declaring we all need to actively seek out the virus so that everyone can just get it over with. Chances are, you’ll only get a bad flu and recover at home. Sure, many will die, but they will be like soldiers in a great war who gave their lives so the rest of us can go to restaurants again and enjoy our fat 401K’s. That’s the level of ignorance we’re already seeing and it’s just a matter of time before Trump says it outright and the idiots at Fox repeat it. Prepare for COVID parties trending on social media. People who tested positive offering to cough on you. ‘Murica. :thmbup:

Monocacy 04-09-2020 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davetherocketguy (Post 3572677)
Gonna suck real bad with understaffed hospitals because no one can pay the workers. How do you get treated for covid with no one working in the hospital?

Also gonna suck real bad when health care providers get sick and hospitals are understaffed because too many caregivers have become patients. Right now they can't even get the protective gear they need to work safely. The whole point of "flattening the curve" is to avoid overwhelming hospitals, so that medical care is available for those who need it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by davetherocketguy (Post 3572677)
Then what about EMT's, fire fighters, police, etc etc...How many will more die because we couldn't put out house fires in time?

Infection rates among first responders (especially EMTs and fire fighters, who are often the same people) have been running quite high in hard-hit areas. Tough to put out a fire or save a car crash victim when the first responder is in quarantine or a hospital bed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by davetherocketguy (Post 3572677)
Yeah, I kinda care if we can't get the economy going again because well...a lot of lives depend on it.

The economy is important, absolutely. But it is also important to recognize that the economy will not return to anything resembling normal during an out-of-control pandemic.

So serious question: how would you propose that we move forward? What, in your opinion, would be the best balance between economic activity and public health?

rjnoodlearm 04-09-2020 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smigles (Post 3572788)
This is not the first pandemic ever. Yes the experts actually know more than just guesswork. That's why they are the experts.

Stating something and just putting "fact is" in front of the sentence does not make it a fact.

Maths shows us what will happen and how many million people will die if you just let the virus spread uncontrolled. That is not guesswork. We have seen it before and the observations agree with the maths.

True experts know about a specific field. Almost always just a single field. Some truly brilliant people are very occasionally an expert in 2 or 3. The rub comes when you turn over your economy to a medical doctor. Or have your appendectomy performed by a marine biologist.

And about those experts:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...u.jamessturcke

LateWesternSky 04-09-2020 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjnoodlearm (Post 3572862)
The rub comes when you turn over your economy to a medical doctor. Or have your appendectomy performed by a marine biologist.

I'm not sure if you are trolling or serious...

No one is saying the doctors should be making the economic decisions and the economists should be making the medical decisions. Those people are working together to find a solution for all.

Monocacy 04-09-2020 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjnoodlearm (Post 3572862)
True experts know about a specific field. Almost always just a single field. Some truly brilliant people are very occasionally an expert in 2 or 3. The rub comes when you turn over your economy to a medical doctor.

Public health is an interdisciplinary field, and not something that your typical family doctor, surgeon, or podiatrist studies. From the Johns Hopkins Masters of Public Health core course description:
The core curriculum of the MPH Program includes grounding in foundational public health knowledge in the profession and science of public health and factors related to human health. All MPH graduates will demonstrate public health competencies that are informed by the critical disciplines in public health (including: biostatistics, epidemiology, social and behavioral determinants of health, management sciences, public health problem-solving, computer applications, demography, environmental health, biological sciences, and public health policy) as well as cross-cutting and emerging public health areas.
Quote:

Originally Posted by rjnoodlearm (Post 3572862)
Or have your appendectomy performed by a marine biologist.

Contraindicated, unless you are a marine animal. ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjnoodlearm (Post 3572862)
And about those experts:

As Yogi Berra apocryphally said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

Emoney 04-09-2020 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McCready (Post 3572828)
Gosh, it seems like someone said this before. Someone really orange who only cares about his “ratings”.

I’m bracing myself for “patriots” to start declaring we all need to actively seek out the virus so that everyone can just get it over with. Chances are, you’ll only get a bad flu and recover at home. Sure, many will die, but they will be like soldiers in a great war who gave their lives so the rest of us can go to restaurants again and enjoy our fat 401K’s. That’s the level of ignorance we’re already seeing and it’s just a matter of time before Trump says it outright and the idiots at Fox repeat it. Prepare for COVID parties trending on social media. People who tested positive offering to cough on you. ‘Murica. :thmbup:

This is how the other side is thinking imo. This is not a left or right issue though. If we let new york happen all across the country all at the same time we would be fkd, along with the economy.

Its funny because if everyone in the world isolated themselves for 3 weeks , we wouldnt even be talking about this.

Its amazing how simple this virus is while being so complex and destructive.


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