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Ess-dog 04-10-2020 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ru4por (Post 3573351)
With the Netherlands being discussed here as an alternative action to total lockdown, I am leaving some other info from Denmark. I guess my take away is the truth of the unknown.


Rasmus Degnbol/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Denmark is now starting to ease some of its COVID-19 restrictions. It will re-open schools and daycare centers on April 15 as its first step towards lifting its lockdown.

Denmark was the second country in Europe to announce a lockdown to limit the spread of the coronavirus, doing so before the country had even reported its first death.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that social distancing measures will remain, and that the country can't reopen too quickly.

The Danish restrictions were never as stringent as many countries in Europe and beyond, but seem to have been adhered to very closely.

The country recorded 5,830 cases and 237 deaths as of Friday morning. New daily figures have yet to consistently decline, but remain lower than in many other countries.

They have a 4% mortality rate and are reopening catches you a bit off guard...

Saw this from their prime minister...

“For example, we may have to work, educate and attend school at different times of the day," the prime minister said. "We have to distribute beyond the hours of the day; we have to prevent rush hour in public transport, and when we go to work, it has to be in a different way than we are used to."

Don't think that is the kind of reopening American's think they are getting when they hear the Federal Govt talk about restarting the economy.

R-Ogre 04-10-2020 01:51 PM

We’re not going to have dine in restaurants, theme parks, movie theaters, or much for mass transit until there’s a vaccine or at least an effective antiviral. We just need to accept that and move on. Some places that clamped down early and had relatively manageable outbreaks (WA state comes to mind) can and probably should experiment with reopening some non-essential businesses (that can operate with social distancing protocols) and lightening lockdown orders fairly soon. But with as contagious as this bug is we’re just not going to see mass gatherings or large events anywhere for quite a while.

pearlybakerbest 04-10-2020 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hampstead (Post 3572700)
The burying of bodies in city parks is going to be awesome to watch.




:|

I know you were being cynically sarcastic Hampy, but damn that was spot on.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...medium=partner

DG_player 04-10-2020 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ru4por (Post 3573304)
Good post, DG. Herd immunity is not a great option. Simply put, it relies on enough people getting sick and recovering/dying that most groups you encounter, no longer have a sick or carrying person in the group. That would likely be nearly as far down the road as a vaccine.

I don't know that you can really draw that conclusion based on the available data. Literally no where in the world do they have a true handle on overall infection rates, and thus the actual mortality rate. It's no doubt much higher than confirmed cases, and quite possibly orders of magnitude higher. I read some research that used infectious spread modeling that concluded infection rates in some of the harder hit european nations was likely in the 10-20% range and could be as high as 40%. I don't know the testing protocol in your part of the nation, but where I am unless you're getting admitted or were in contact with a positive person, you don't even get tested. So there's definitely a lot of people out there that have it who are either asymptomatic or symptomatic with out need of serious care. We really aren't going to have a true idea until they roll out an antibody test on a large enough scale that they can test large samples of the population. It's an inevitability that at some point infection will be widespread, we're long past the point of isolating individual cases. The question is what's the best way to get there? Is it a slow crawl under severe lockdown, or is it a more measured approach such as the dutch, accepting that the young and healthy will get it, with the vast majority doing fine, and protecting the older and more vulnerable?

Quite frankly the current measures are not sustainable for a long period of time without large changes to our societal institutions. A capitalist free market economy simply can't function when you tell large swathes of people they can't work or run their businesses.

This is purely my opinion, but I think when this is all said and done we're going to find out that this virus is not much worse than the flu in terms of mortality and need for medical intervention. The big difference being this is a novel virus and the entire population is susceptible. With the flu there is a lot of pre-existing immunity, either through vaccination or part of the population having been exposed to similar strains in the past. So the overall flu infection rate ends up much lower and spread out over a much longer and more manageable timeframe.

ru4por 04-10-2020 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigFlickLuke (Post 3573359)
I wonder if that has anything to do either higher levels of homogeneity.

I can only assume you are referring to Ethnic homogeneity?

Meaning, the people all come from a similar ancestry, or there is not large variety of cultures.
Homogeneity means homogeneous all alike. Ethnic homogeneity means that everyone in the area or group has a similar ethnic background.

I would very much like to have you post your data that the Netherlands has more homogeneity than other countries. I would also like to see the research that genetic composition, of any kind, lead to behavioral tendencies, void of the plethora of other influences.

I will be honest, this post is laden with the potential to be interpreted as ignorant and racist. But, I will gladly give you the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps I misunderstood the post.

DG_player 04-10-2020 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BogeyNoMore (Post 3573319)
Only time will tell. But tell me: what businesses are closed right now that you would open?

I don't really know, but there is a large service sector in our economy that is completely shut down. I'm not really even advocating it, I'm just pointing out its an option being taken in some parts of the world. We lack good data. Until we have better data I don't think it's wise or prudent to enact measures that aren't based on the "worst case" scenarios.

I have an immunocompromised family member, so personally, I won't be participating in "normal life" until well after most of you have. If restaurants etc. start reopening, I won't be going anyway.

ru4por 04-10-2020 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DG_player (Post 3573390)
I don't know that you can really draw that conclusion based on the available data. Literally no where in the world do they have a true handle on overall infection rates, and thus the actual mortality rate. It's no doubt much higher than confirmed cases, and quite possibly orders of magnitude higher. I read some research that used infectious spread modeling that concluded infection rates in some of the harder hit european nations was likely in the 10-20% range and could be as high as 40%. I don't know the testing protocol in your part of the nation, but where I am unless you're getting admitted or were in contact with a positive person, you don't even get tested. So there's definitely a lot of people out there that have it who are either asymptomatic or symptomatic with out need of serious care. We really aren't going to have a true idea until they roll out an antibody test on a large enough scale that they can test large samples of the population. It's an inevitability that at some point infection will be widespread, we're long past the point of isolating individual cases. The question is what's the best way to get there? Is it a slow crawl under severe lockdown, or is it a more measured approach such as the dutch, accepting that the young and healthy will get it, with the vast majority doing fine, and protecting the older and more vulnerable?

Quite frankly the current measures are not sustainable for a long period of time without large changes to our societal institutions. A capitalist free market economy simply can't function when you tell large swathes of people they can't work or run their businesses.

This is purely my opinion, but I think when this is all said and done we're going to find out that this virus is not much worse than the flu in terms of mortality and need for medical intervention. The big difference being this is a novel virus and the entire population is susceptible. With the flu there is a lot of pre-existing immunity, either through vaccination or part of the population having been exposed to similar strains in the past. So the overall flu infection rate ends up much lower and spread out over a much longer and more manageable timeframe.

I really agree with most of the above. The best point you make is, we don't really know. Testing and antibody testing will ultimately give us a much clearer picture of how we did and what might change if it happens again soon.

The economy cannot survive in a lockdown state, as we are. But, I agree with some others, who say that government release does not save the small business world. Society is going to change and many are going to go under and lose everything, even if we drop all restrictions. I honestly believe we are just not going to see some things successfully come back. I don't think anything that involves large crowds will be part of our lives for some time.

It will be interesting to see the long term results of infection rate, spread numbers and death rates. I am seeing FAR more young people get sick and die of COVID, than I have any flu, but that is only anecdotal info from my observations at the hospital.

BigFlickLuke 04-10-2020 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ru4por (Post 3573391)
I can only assume you are referring to Ethnic homogeneity?

Meaning, the people all come from a similar ancestry, or there is not large variety of cultures.
Homogeneity means homogeneous all alike. Ethnic homogeneity means that everyone in the area or group has a similar ethnic background.

I would very much like to have you post your data that the Netherlands has more homogeneity than other countries. I would also like to see the research that genetic composition, of any kind, lead to behavioral tendencies, void of the plethora of other influences.

I will be honest, this post is laden with the potential to be interpreted as ignorant and racist. But, I will gladly give you the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps I misunderstood the post.

Lol. I don't care how you interpret it, and I'm most certainly not going to waste any time trying to have a scientific conversion with a nurse.

I don't need any benefit of your doubt.

hiflyer 04-10-2020 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hampstead (Post 3572711)
Probably best to learn some new recipes. Folks from the Depression are laughing at our weakness.

I was just thinking of this the other day after i saw a few families buying food while reading the recipe. It sounds good on paper, but I wouldn't be too venturesome about it.
Think about it: Attempt a new recipe and botch it. Now your family is spewing out of every hole. Next step is go to hospital to curb the fluids, add more burden to health care system and possibly contract COVID19 while you're there.
Beyond that, if you dont like what you made, or you burn it all to crisp, you've just wasted food that someone else could have actually eaten.
Probably best to stick with what you know, for now.

R-Ogre 04-10-2020 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DG_player (Post 3573390)
I don't know that you can really draw that conclusion based on the available data. Literally no where in the world do they have a true handle on overall infection rates, and thus the actual mortality rate. It's no doubt much higher than confirmed cases, and quite possibly orders of magnitude higher. I read some research that used infectious spread modeling that concluded infection rates in some of the harder hit european nations was likely in the 10-20% range and could be as high as 40%. I don't know the testing protocol in your part of the nation, but where I am unless you're getting admitted or were in contact with a positive person, you don't even get tested. So there's definitely a lot of people out there that have it who are either asymptomatic or symptomatic with out need of serious care. We really aren't going to have a true idea until they roll out an antibody test on a large enough scale that they can test large samples of the population. It's an inevitability that at some point infection will be widespread, we're long past the point of isolating individual cases. The question is what's the best way to get there? Is it a slow crawl under severe lockdown, or is it a more measured approach such as the dutch, accepting that the young and healthy will get it, with the vast majority doing fine, and protecting the older and more vulnerable?

Quite frankly the current measures are not sustainable for a long period of time without large changes to our societal institutions. A capitalist free market economy simply can't function when you tell large swathes of people they can't work or run their businesses.

This is purely my opinion, but I think when this is all said and done we're going to find out that this virus is not much worse than the flu in terms of mortality and need for medical intervention. The big difference being this is a novel virus and the entire population is susceptible. With the flu there is a lot of pre-existing immunity, either through vaccination or part of the population having been exposed to similar strains in the past. So the overall flu infection rate ends up much lower and spread out over a much longer and more manageable timeframe.

Germany is starting some serological tests and even the most optimistic interpretation has this being at least 3x as deadly as influenza, likely closer to 6x.

Without a vaccine you need at least 60 percent of the population to get infected. That means imagine Italy, worldwide, tripled. Good luck with that.


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