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DavidSauls 04-11-2020 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hampstead (Post 3573726)
Reading through these posts, it is interesting to see how some folks process information.

It's conclusion-based research. Start with a conclusion, find facts that support it.

It's more efficient than learning.

Ess-dog 04-11-2020 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hampstead (Post 3573726)
Reading through these posts, it is interesting to see how some folks process information.

We are predisposed to cherry picking due to our fragile sensibilities.

McCready 04-11-2020 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hampstead (Post 3573726)
Reading through these posts, it is interesting to see how some folks process information.

Absolutely. One thing I keep struggling with is this feeling that a huge percentage of Americans are unbelievably ignorant and stupid and that we have an education & critical thinking crisis in this country, and I often contemplate retiring somewhere else. And the people denying the seriousness of this pandemic, calling it fake, blaming cell towers etc. are just the latest ****show reinforcing that. But at the same time I often suspect Iím succumbing to some failure of logic along the way, like confirmation bias or just failing to expose myself to a fuller picture of humanity. If the hospital surge is less than predicted because more people than expected actually are taking it seriously and taking the necessary steps, then obviously thatís really encouraging and I can maybe peel back a layer of my cynicism.

Hate to say it though ó with everyone talking about the ďpeakĒ arriving soon (9 days from now in Georgia according to a news article I read today), itís going to come back with a vengeance as people decide itís time to get back out into the world.

Emoney 04-11-2020 10:32 PM

I was in a virtual meeting today and was reminded one of the people on my team has terrible athsma.

No way she isnt hospitalized if she gets it. She has trouble breathing just sitting in a chair...

Idk....we may have to quarantine the unhealthy folk and let the rest of america fight it off and build antibodies....(half joking)

There really isnt a good way to do this...its messy

wims 04-11-2020 10:46 PM

There are reports suggesting that people that were sick and recovered have been reinfected again. It's possible that we won't be able to build antibodies
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21T0F1

ThrowBot 04-11-2020 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brutalbrutus (Post 3573712)
They weren't way off. They were models based on spread rate and population density. People have been for the most part heeding the stay at home orders which has changed the spread rate. Like ru4 said, its better to plan for the worst and the worst didn't happen because people were being responsible. Its not a bad thing...

That's the funny thing; there are so many counterintuitive responses to this thing.

The better we do at distancing and isolation, the less severe the situation will become...and the easier it gets to fall for the "overreaction/media hype" narrative. But the fact is that a LESS severe outbreak is evidence that distancing & isolation are GOOD.

A corollary:
The better we do at flattening the curve, the longer it takes. People focus on the Y axis of the "flatten the curve" graph, and rightfully so. But look at the X axis. The best case scenario is that it takes a really long time for the virus to reach everyone. (Nobody avoids it forever.) That's why talk of re-opening the economy scares me. A slow down of new cases is evidence that we should continue shutdowns, not end them.

BogeyNoMore 04-11-2020 11:52 PM

At the risk of being a jack@ss, this thread is very clearly demonstrating whose intellect I can respect, and whose I can't.

DavidSauls 04-12-2020 06:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThrowBot (Post 3573829)
That's the funny thing; there are so many counterintuitive responses to this thing.

The better we do at distancing and isolation, the less severe the situation will become...and the easier it gets to fall for the "overreaction/media hype" narrative. But the fact is that a LESS severe outbreak is evidence that distancing & isolation are GOOD.

A corollary:
The better we do at flattening the curve, the longer it takes. People focus on the Y axis of the "flatten the curve" graph, and rightfully so. But look at the X axis. The best case scenario is that it takes a really long time for the virus to reach everyone. (Nobody avoids it forever.) That's why talk of re-opening the economy scares me. A slow down of new cases is evidence that we should continue shutdowns, not end them.

Absolutely. And additionally, the longer that x-axis, the better the odds of a therapeutic, or even a vaccine.

Some of the dismissers are now saying that it hasn't been as bad as predicted, as if that happened in a vacuum. It's like me saying I've changed my oil on schedule, and my engine hasn't blown up, so I wasted time and money changing my oil. Unfortunately, we can't run a test by putting a bunch of people on an isolated island, letting them "business as usual", and see if, unchecked, it's really no big deal. Though if we could, I've got some nominees for the trial.

robdeforge 04-12-2020 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Twmccoy (Post 3573699)
Amazing that the media continues to overstate the amount of hospital space needed for coronavirus patients. Even in NY they have far more beds than are needed. The doom and gloom estimates in the hardest hit cities were way off.

thanks for answer but I'm looking for dave to respond so that nobody "puts words in his mouth"

paging davetherocketguy !

ohtobediscing 04-12-2020 08:11 AM

Here in MS a # of churches are holding in-church Easter services. One pastor said, "If everything else is open, why shouldn't we be?"

And the stupid just goes on and on...


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