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-   -   Are we not taking Covid-19 seriously (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/showthread.php?t=136199)

ru4por 04-17-2020 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DG_player (Post 3576581)
There was just a recent paper that estimated US coronavirus infection rates through march based on the influence reporting system. The gist of it is that there was a surge of non-influenza positive influenza like illness cases that corresponds with confirmed case detection. The conclusion was that only 1% of total cases were confirmed and that there was something like 28 million cases in the US by the end of march. Assuming this is remotely accurate, the actual mortality rate would be much lower than a lot of prior estimates.

It actually got me wondering on a personal anecdotal level. Before the whole panic began I had a severe respiratory illness that lasted 3-4 weeks, that included all of the usual symptoms of Covid, as well as severe dizziness for a couple weeks. It actually was so bad, I went to the ER thinking I had a heart attack based on the dizziness and severe pain in my chest (which was later determined to be from straining my connective rib tissue coughing). Both my 1 and 3 year old got sick as well. The 3 year old had a brief fever and very mild cold like systems otherwise. My one year old faired worse. I eventually took him to the ER one night because his breathing became so labored at one point. They flu swabbed him and it came back negative. Interestingly, the attending doctor commented that she had had a lot of flu like cases that day, and was very surprised because they had all tested negative for the flu.

My wife was similarly sick in December. I have a inclination, toward believing it was something other that COVID, but I guess you won't know until antibody testing is widely available.

Jay Dub 04-17-2020 04:49 PM

My niece who's an RN believes it's a good chance she had it in Feb.

JuanA 04-17-2020 04:59 PM

I honestly can't remember the last time I've been sick, even from the common cold. It has to be over 6 years now. I know a lot of it has to do with not having kids.

I've wondered though if I'm one of those people that don't show symptoms, but just carries stuff around.

ru4por 04-17-2020 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JuanA (Post 3576696)
I honestly can't remember the last time I've been sick, even from the common cold. It has to be over 6 years now. I know a lot of it has to do with not having kids.

I've wondered though if I'm one of those people that don't show symptoms, but just carries stuff around.

Like a stoic sherpa? :p

DG_player 04-17-2020 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ru4por (Post 3576685)
My wife was similarly sick in December. I have a inclination, toward believing it was something other that COVID, but I guess you won't know until antibody testing is widely available.

I fully intend to operate under the assumption it wasn't covid, but some other non-flu respiratory illness. No way of knowing for sure until there is antibody testing. However the implication that there may have been much more widespread transmission earlier than thought got me to wondering as I was sick in february.

DG_player 04-17-2020 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by R-Ogre (Post 3576594)
It would be nice if this is true, BUT the pattern for a COVID outbreak is pretty consistent and if you have one in your area you tend to notice. The whole “hospitals overwhelmed with people in respiratory failure” thing.

Well the implication if only 1% of cases have been confirmed, is that there's a lot more infected people out there before the whole "hospitals overwhelmed" thing. It doesn't really change the pattern, just the number of infected people needed to overwhelm the system. In actuality there are very few overwhelmed systems, other than a few of the hardest hit metropolitan areas. Based on the testing I don't know how they would have any clue about infection rates. In my area prior to mid march there was no concept of even getting tested for coronavirus. You got a flu swab and that was it. If it came back negative you were assumed to have some other respiratory illness. I'm not even sure the testing was available then. Even now, the protocol where I live is unless you need to be admitted you don't get tested.

wims 04-17-2020 06:33 PM

I read an interesting article about the infected aircraft carrier and how a huge amount of the crew tested positive, but only a minority had any symptoms. It seems like the majority that gets infected never even know about it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21Y2GB

Halcón 04-17-2020 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DG_player (Post 3576715)
Even now, the protocol where I live is unless you need to be admitted you don't get tested.

Whut? They're not testing anybody who is not admitted to the hospital? If that's true, the numbers coming out of your area are going to be waaay off.

bnrstnkr 04-17-2020 06:49 PM

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/gov-tim...emic-/5703049/

It looks like Minnesotans are being encouraged to get out and play by our governor. I personally feel that disc golf is actually the ideal way to exercise and recreate while responsibly practicing social distancing. Just don't meet people, play alone or with members of your household only.

It's much safer than walking down the street, where you'll have to cross within 1 feet of many people out walking dogs and such.

I stay over 30-40 feet away from everyone. And if the park is too crowded to make that easy I won't get out of my car.

Please tell me, if you think I shouldn't be, where exactly am I supposed to go outside? I don't have a backyard. I go for walks at night to avoid people as well, but the idea that the parks need to be avoided seems almost classist to me, that people with backyards and private outdoor areas can dictate that to people with none of that.

I am very serious about restricting social interaction and keeping the economy shut down until this really passes, but outdoor exercise is imperative for health, especially at the end of MN winter. I actually can't think of a more reasonable way to do that than playing disc golf alone or with just my roommate.

Keep the leagues shut down, like the doctor from NY was saying.

Jay Dub 04-17-2020 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halcón (Post 3576747)
Whut? They're not testing anybody who is not admitted to the hospital? If that's true, the numbers coming out of your area are going to be waaay off.

Check which forum you're in before you take this thought any farther.


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