Disc Golf Course Review

Disc Golf Course Review (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/index.php)
-   General Disc Golf Chat (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   Are we not taking Covid-19 seriously (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/showthread.php?t=136199)

ThrowBot 04-27-2020 04:30 PM

We are starting a phased re-open here in Montana, with some businesses opening today, and restaurants/bars in a week. Hopefully there isn't too much of a surge of new cases.

I have mixed feelings about it. I can do my job from home but I know that many don't have that luxury. Our state is naturally conducive to social distance which may be why we never got hit that hard and new cases have been declining.

Magnus_ 04-27-2020 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DG_player (Post 3579947)
The swedish government, which is the last country to stick to their guns with the no severe lockdown route and just general social distancing, believes they will achieve herd immunity in stockholm by the end of the may.

I wonder how busy swedish disc golf courses are.

Based on Facebook posts from my local club back home in Sweden the league nights are still on but all sanctioned events have been cancelled in accordance with the PDGA guidelines.

BogeyNoMore 04-27-2020 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discerdoo (Post 3579967)
Does data about the Spanish flu correlate to Covid19? Looks more like speculation about a virus that was unknown to us 6 months ago, otherwise the graph would have said "we are here" instead of "we may be here". I reckon we're all gonna have to wait and see.

There may well be little correlation between the two. May not be the best analogy, but it's not necessarily unlike comparing Ricky's driving distances to Paul's. One may have little to do with the other, but the two data sets could follow similar patterns, or they may not.

But until we have a more data for Covid, modeling data for similar viral diseases is about the best we can do.

It's not like they're comparing Ricky's distance to mine, because we know that the data applicable to one isn't remotely applicable to the other.


Bottom line: only time will tell. But as has been pointed out before, it's not solely up to the fickle finger of fate, our actions be damned. The choices we make at the individual, business, and governmental levels, will have a definitive impact on how high the spike goes and how long this lasts.

discerdoo 04-27-2020 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by R-Ogre (Post 3579973)
We know that even in NYC which has been absolutely hammered only about 20-some percent have been exposed. We need 60-ish percent (maybe more) to hit herd immunity. Saying that there will be a second wave if we reopen indiscriminately, and that it will kill as many if not more as the first wave, is not speculation at all, itís just how infectious disease works. Itís like saying that if I step off the edge of the roof I will fall to the ground.

Who said we should reopen indiscriminately?

Different century, different virus, more advanced testing and mitigation strategies. It is certainly speculation to say we are or may be at the same point on a 100 year old graph for the Spanish flu. "May be" is inherently speculative.

Monocacy 04-27-2020 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discerdoo (Post 3579967)
Does data about the Spanish flu correlate to Covid19? . . .

As the saying goes, history does not repeat but it rhymes.

Similarities between COVID-19 and the 1918 flu:

1. Both are respiratory illnesses that spread easily from person to person.

2. Both have similar "reproductive numbers" (R-nought), which is the number of people that each sick person infects on average in a susceptible population.

3. With no vaccine or effective treatment available, primary control measures are limited to social distancing, masks, quarantine, etc.

4. Both derived from an animal source before jumping to humans.

Differences betwee COVID-19 and the 1918 flu:

1. There does not appear to be preexisting immunity to SARS-CoV-2, whereas people in their 40s and 50s had some immunity to the 1918 flu based on previous emergence of a similar flu strain.

2. WWI troop mobilizations greatly facilitated the spread of the 1918 flu pandemic.

3. The 1918 flu infected roughly a third of the world's population, killing at least 50 million people in three waves over several months; the COVID-19 pandemic is still in its early stages.

4. The 1918 flu was seasonal, largely disappearing in the summer and reappearing in the fall; it remains to be seen whether this is true for COVID-19.

4. Case fatality rate for the 1918 flu was roughly 2%; case fatality rate for COVID-19 is not yet known.

5. Younger people were highly susceptible to the 1918 flu; older people are more susceptible to COVID-19.

6. Influenza has a shorter incubation period; COVID-19 has a longer infectious period.

7. We now have antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections.

discerdoo 04-27-2020 04:49 PM

So, all of you agree with me, we're gonna have to wait and see. Excellent!

Or, we can all continue to make amateur assessments. Let's do that so the thread stays lively.

DavidSauls 04-27-2020 05:12 PM

One lesson from the 1918 graph may be:

There's no guarantee that Covid-19 will be a once-and-done epidemic. It may be, but having experienced pandemics in waves before, don't assume that it will be.

R-Ogre 04-27-2020 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavidSauls (Post 3579994)
One lesson from the 1918 graph may be:

There's no guarantee that Covid-19 will be a once-and-done epidemic. It may be, but having experienced pandemics in waves before, don't assume that it will be.

It absolutely will not be one and done. Like I said above, we still have a huge population worldwide with no exposure, and since no country other than New Zealand seems serious about extermination it’s going to flare back up repeatedly. Not suspicion, fact.

How badly it flares up depends on how effective half-ass measures are-personally, I’m very skeptical that Americans will be anything close to careful and compliant enough to keep the epidemic under control even with gradual lifting of measures. Witness the fact that we have people who don’t believe vaccines work, or who jump on all the latest crackpot theories that try to make covid the same as seasonal flu, or who think that any type of social distancing rule is a direct attack on the constitution.

I guess there is one way that it’s one and done, and that would be a mutation that makes it as deadly as a regular cold coronavirus, but there’s not evolutionary pressure for that to happen since it’s spectacularly successful as it stands now.

R-Ogre 04-27-2020 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discerdoo (Post 3579983)
Who said we should reopen indiscriminately?.

Well, the Flu Klutz Klan waving confederate flags and openly and intentionally not practicing any kind of disease precautions in Michigan for one thing.

DG_player 04-27-2020 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monocacy (Post 3579984)
As the saying goes, history does not repeat but it rhymes.

Similarities between COVID-19 and the 1918 flu:

You forgot the most important! Smoking protects you against coronavirus!


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:57 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.