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-   -   Are we not taking Covid-19 seriously (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/showthread.php?t=136199)

ohtobediscing 06-10-2020 06:19 PM

It may not be exponential like the first few weeks, but the daily infection rate is still climbing.
I'm glad to be heading toward OR and the woods come Monday for wildfire work, but I worry about my unhealthy brother and other older relatives back in MS and other states.
On the third hand, planning to take a new route back and hit courses in TN, Iowa, NE, SD, and MT, hopefully to include Crystal Caverns and Diamond X.

DiscFifty 06-10-2020 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hampstead (Post 3595452)

As I understand, the amount of testing has dramatically increased resulting in many, many new cases being reported. Some people think the more reported cases the better because that lowers the death rate. Do you agree?

Hampstead 06-10-2020 06:44 PM

I think we're not taking this seriously and the fall numbers are going to be awful. This is going to be a serious problem for a lot longer than most realize.

DavidSauls 06-10-2020 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hampstead (Post 3595513)
I think we're not taking this seriously and the fall numbers are going to be awful. This is going to be a serious problem for a lot longer than most realize.

The numbers are already awful. Our national symbol should be the ostrich.

But, yes, they're likely to get much worse.

DavidSauls 06-10-2020 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiscFifty (Post 3595511)
As I understand, the amount of testing has dramatically increased resulting in many, many new cases being reported. Some people think the more reported cases the better because that lowers the death rate. Do you agree?

For just the reason, I take the "cases" numbers with a few grains of salt. They're not total cases but cases identified, highly subject to how much testing we do, and on whom. The numbers derived from them---such as the death rate, as a percentage of cases---is suspect too.

The deaths themselves are a much better gauge of the problem....except that they have a 2-3 week lag before revealing the consequences of our behavior.

LateWesternSky 06-10-2020 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavidSauls (Post 3595545)
For just the reason, I take the "cases" numbers with a few grains of salt. They're not total cases but cases identified, highly subject to how much testing we do, and on whom. The numbers derived from them---such as the death rate, as a percentage of cases---is suspect too.

The deaths themselves are a much better gauge of the problem....except that they have a 2-3 week lag before revealing the consequences of our behavior.

Not that it makes much difference, but I think the lag time is more like 3-4 weeks. From what I've read, the time from infection to showing symptoms is about a week on average, and the time from showing symptoms to death is about 2.5 weeks.

DavidSauls 06-10-2020 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LateWesternSky (Post 3595563)
Not that it makes much difference, but I think the lag time is more like 3-4 weeks. From what I've read, the time from infection to showing symptoms is about a week on average, and the time from showing symptoms to death is about 2.5 weeks.

Quite possibly. I picked up figures of 8 days to hospital, 18 days to death, somewhere, but am not sure whether those are clocked from symptoms or exposure. Or even, for that matter, if those averages are correct.

Regardless, it's a more stable figure Increasing cases is likely bad; increasing deaths definitely is.

ru4por 06-10-2020 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiscFifty (Post 3595511)
As I understand, the amount of testing has dramatically increased resulting in many, many new cases being reported. Some people think the more reported cases the better because that lowers the death rate. Do you agree?

I place much more stock in the hospitalized numbers. Distancing, masks and staying home will not stop COVID. Saving the healthcare system, until a vaccine is the only impactable goal.

DiscFifty 06-11-2020 02:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavidSauls (Post 3595545)
The deaths themselves are a much better gauge of the problem....except that they have a 2-3 week lag before revealing the consequences of our behavior.

What keeps me from becoming too relaxed (and probably others my age+) isn't the number of deaths, while absolutely crushing horrible, but it's the way some of them are dying, truly horrifying and very scary. How the hell this virus can aggressively attack some people and others all they get is very mild symptoms... it just sounds more and more like something mechanized.

DavidSauls 06-11-2020 06:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiscFifty (Post 3595642)
What keeps me from becoming too relaxed (and probably others my age+) isn't the number of deaths, while absolutely crushing horrible, but it's the way some of them are dying, truly horrifying and very scary. How the hell this virus can aggressively attack some people and others all they get is very mild symptoms... it just sounds more and more like something mechanized.

Sounds like something biological, to me.

That's the same variance of outcomes with the sun causing skin damage & cancer, or polio, or the side-effects of almost all medicines, or allergic reactions to substances, or.....well, life.


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