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-   -   Are we not taking Covid-19 seriously (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/showthread.php?t=136199)

DavidSauls 06-11-2020 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiscFifty (Post 3595642)
What keeps me from becoming too relaxed (and probably others my age+) isn't the number of deaths, while absolutely crushing horrible, but it's the way some of them are dying, truly horrifying and very scary. .

Very true. There are also some long and brutal hospitalizations for people who ultimately survive. Multiply the death numbers by some factor (I'm not sure what), and that's how many people are enduring much worse than just "getting sick".

ballgolfconvert 06-11-2020 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiscFifty (Post 3595511)
As I understand, the amount of testing has dramatically increased resulting in many, many new cases being reported. Some people think the more reported cases the better because that lowers the death rate. Do you agree?

I don't think the larger amount of testing really means anything. In the start. you could only get tested if you had symptoms. Now people are getting tested just to go back to work, so many who didn't think they have it are now getting tested. What the increased testing is showing is that there are still a huge % of people who have not caught it yet which tells us we are far, far away from any kind of herd immunity. I personally think that at this moment we are heading into the worst of this crisis.

ru4por 06-11-2020 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ballgolfconvert (Post 3595686)
I don't think the larger amount of testing really means anything. In the start. you could only get tested if you had symptoms. Now people are getting tested just to go back to work, so many who didn't think they have it are now getting tested. What the increased testing is showing is that there are still a huge % of people who have not caught it yet which tells us we are far, far away from any kind of herd immunity. I personally think that at this moment we are heading into the worst of this crisis.

Testing for the virus is really about data. If you have symptoms and get tested, the test has immediate value...obviously. But, if I get tested to go back to work, the test has VERY limited personal value. I does not tell me if I have already had COVID, nor does it tell me if I catch it tomorrow. This is the swab or spit type testing versions.

Antibody serology testing is of more practical value to the individual. This test tells you if your body has developed antibodies to the virus. What these antibodies mean is still a guess, to a certain degree. In the short term, you should be immune from getting the virus again, but there is not enough data to know for how long. This is a blood test.

I think the herd immunity stuff is of little value. As bolf above states, we are a long way from herd immunity. I believe we will see a vaccine long before that many people acquire the virus. And I believe the vaccine is over a year away.

Monocacy 06-11-2020 10:22 AM

More testing is better because testing is necessary for contact tracing. Testing plus contact tracing is a time-honored and effective way of controlling infectious disease outbreaks.

Unfortunately most places in the U.S. are still getting up to speed on contact tracing.

I know more than one person who tested positive and developed symptoms within the past month or so, but they were never contacted by the Health Department to identify anyone they might have infected. :doh:

R-Ogre 06-11-2020 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monocacy (Post 3595713)
More testing is better because testing is necessary for contact tracing. Testing plus contact tracing is a time-honored and effective way of controlling infectious disease outbreaks.

Unfortunately most places in the U.S. are still getting up to speed on contact tracing.

I know more than one person who tested positive and developed symptoms within the past month or so, but they were never contacted by the Health Department to identify anyone they might have infected. :doh:

I mean, did that person NEED the health department? If they’re being halfway conscientious about where and how much they go out in public, couldn’t they notify people themselves?

Dcinmd 06-11-2020 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monocacy (Post 3595713)
More testing is better because testing is necessary for contact tracing. Testing plus contact tracing is a time-honored and effective way of controlling infectious disease outbreaks.

Unfortunately most places in the U.S. are still getting up to speed on contact tracing.

I know more than one person who tested positive and developed symptoms within the past month or so, but they were never contacted by the Health Department to identify anyone they might have infected. :doh:

My Significant other works for the local heath department. Her primary focus has been on retirement communities and how they are dealing/staffing/training with issues regard the pandemic.

Most local heath department are understaffed and the government is in the process of hiring contact tracers. But by no means have the hired up to the need levels to track down ever case at this point.

Monocacy 06-11-2020 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by R-Ogre (Post 3595719)
I mean, did that person NEED the health department? If they’re being halfway conscientious about where and how much they go out in public, couldn’t they notify people themselves?

It takes a fair amount of training to do contact tracing well while respecting people's privacy. As an example, one of the recent flare-ups in Seoul, South Korea was traced to a concentration of gay nightclubs. For cultural reasons, South Koreans are often reluctant to admit frequenting such establishments.

In other cases, identifying potential exposures involves someone admitting they broke work rules about wearing a mask, distancing, etc., so folks may be afraid of losing their job.

If a positive case occurs at a workplace, the employer may investigate possible workplace transmission, but the employer is unlikely to investigate family members, neighbors, lovers, etc.

So yeah, it doesn't NEED to be the health department, but the health department should be able to do a more thorough and accurate assessment.

Monocacy 06-11-2020 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dcinmd (Post 3595727)
Most local heath department are understaffed and the government is in the process of hiring contact tracers. But by no means have the hired up to the need levels to track down ever case at this point.

Yes, this is my understanding too. Health departments are trying to make up for years of budget cuts to get up to speed yesterday.

My comment was not intended as criticism of health departments. In my limited experience those who work there are dedicated public servants who do remarkably well with limited resources.

Countchunkula 06-11-2020 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiscFifty (Post 3595642)
What keeps me from becoming too relaxed (and probably others my age+) isn't the number of deaths, while absolutely crushing horrible, but it's the way some of them are dying, truly horrifying and very scary. How the hell this virus can aggressively attack some people and others all they get is very mild symptoms... it just sounds more and more like something mechanized.

Agreed with the first part, but strongly disagree with the bolded section. Agree with David, that there's nothing abnormal about different people being affected in different ways. Aside from inherited differences, there are also lifestyle factors playing into it. Wouldn't you expect someone with preexisting health issues to have a tougher time than an otherwise healthy adult? I think it's quite a leap to say that the different outcomes are due to "something mechanized". You're jumping past plenty of other explanations that would require less new assumptions.

R-Ogre 06-11-2020 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monocacy (Post 3595728)
It takes a fair amount of training to do contact tracing well while respecting people's privacy. As an example, one of the recent flare-ups in Seoul, South Korea was traced to a concentration of gay nightclubs. For cultural reasons, South Koreans are often reluctant to admit frequenting such establishments.

In other cases, identifying potential exposures involves someone admitting they broke work rules about wearing a mask, distancing, etc., so folks may be afraid of losing their job.

If a positive case occurs at a workplace, the employer may investigate possible workplace transmission, but the employer is unlikely to investigate family members, neighbors, lovers, etc.

So yeah, it doesn't NEED to be the health department, but the health department should be able to do a more thorough and accurate assessment.

But if the health dept doesn’t catch that case, some self-action would be better than nothing right? I mean, I’m just thinking if I got the rona, other than in-passing contact at the store I could make a pretty decent effort at contacting people I’d been around.

But yes on a macro scale there needs to be a plan and a program. I’m just saying that on a micro scale, all of us can help to fill in the gaps whether it’s be minimizing contacts as much as possible or by wearing masks In indoor public places.


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