Disc Golf Course Review

Disc Golf Course Review (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/index.php)
-   General Disc Golf Chat (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   Are we not taking Covid-19 seriously (https://www.dgcoursereview.com/forums/showthread.php?t=136199)

tomte 04-18-2020 05:24 PM

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Living in Sweden this information seems to be a lot closer to the truth than what you hear in media and from other countries governments.
Go out and play, but no high fives hugs and kisses ;)

Monocacy 04-18-2020 06:46 PM

^ Interesting link. Some good information, but they lost me when they cited Snowden at the end.

The site you linked estimated 0.1% to 0.4% mortality rate. This may turn out to be reasonably accurate, but keep in mind that the number of deaths before reaching herd immunity (~75% of the population) would be:

Country .......Deaths (0.1%)........Deaths (0.4%)
Sweden.............7,500...................30,000
US................247,500..................990,000

DG_player 04-18-2020 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monocacy (Post 3577029)
^ Interesting link. Some good information, but they lost me when they cited Snowden at the end.

The site you linked estimated 0.1% to 0.4% mortality rate. This may turn out to be reasonably accurate, but keep in mind that the number of deaths before reaching herd immunity (~75% of the population) would be:

Country .......Deaths (0.1%)........Deaths (0.4%)
Sweden.............7,500...................30,000
US................247,500..................990,000

You can throw the 0.1% number out the window. NY state is already over 900 covid deaths per 1 million population.

DavidSauls 04-18-2020 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DG_player (Post 3577055)
You can throw the 0.1% number out the window. NY state is already over 900 covid deaths per 1 million population.

Well, not quite yet.

Monocacy 04-18-2020 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DG_player (Post 3577055)
You can throw the 0.1% number out the window. NY state is already over 900 covid deaths per 1 million population.

I expect the fatality rate to be higher than 0.1%. I was just using the numbers the gentleman had linked to show that seemingly low mortality rates still leave a whole lot of dead people, if the disease gets the chance to burn through the population.

Using the JHU Covid Project numbers, New York State has experienced 12,192 deaths, which represents 0.063% of its population.

As DavidSauls said, not quite 0.1% but pretty close. And still going up.

DG_player 04-18-2020 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monocacy (Post 3577071)
I expect the fatality rate to be higher than 0.1%. I was just using the numbers the gentleman had linked to show that seemingly low mortality rates still leave a whole lot of dead people, if the disease gets the chance to burn through the population.

Using the JHU Covid Project numbers, New York State has experienced 12,192 deaths, which represents 0.063% of its population.

As DavidSauls said, not quite 0.1% but pretty close. And still going up.

Are you sure you're not looking at NYC itself? According to a NY Post article today NYC is at 12,712 deaths. That's 0.14% of the entire cities population, if you assume something like half the population is infected, that's a mortality rate of 0.38%, and people are still dying.

Monocacy 04-18-2020 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DG_player (Post 3577073)
Are you sure you're not looking at NYC itself? According to a NY Post article today NYC is at 12,712 deaths. That's 0.14% of the entire cities population, if you assume something like half the population is infected, that's a mortality rate of 0.38%, and people are still dying.

You are correct, I grabbed the wrong number. JHU COVID lists 17,627 deaths for New York State, which is 0.091% of the total population, and oh so close to 0.1%. ;)

However, the mortality rate (technically, case fatality rate) is number of deaths divided by number of cases (not divided by the total population). Case fatality rates in New York are well up in the percent range, but the true case fatality rate is clearly lower due to lack of widespread testing.

Ultimately, the case fatality rate will not be known until we have more testing and a better understanding of the total number of infections in the population, particularly since many cases are asymptomatic.

Monocacy 04-18-2020 10:35 PM

For those who may be interested, there are two numbers that epidemiologists use to measure fatality rates. Maybe there are more, but I know of two:

Case fatality rate (CFR) = (number of deaths) / (number of confirmed cases)

Infection fatality rate (IFR) = (number of deaths) / (number of infections)

The number of infections will be greater than the number of confirmed cases because not every infected person gets tested. Typically the number of infections is estimated based on population sampling and antibody testing.

I have seen a variety of estimates for the COVID-19 infection fatality rate, typically ranging from 0.3% to 1.5%. A recent article from The Lancet estimates IFR at 0.63%. If that was the case, my earlier table would look like this, assuming herd immunity at 75% of the population:

Country .......Deaths (0.63%)
Sweden...............47,250
US.................1,560,000

So yeah, fatality rate is one of the many areas we wish we knew more about with this disease.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...20)30243-7.pdf

R-Ogre 04-19-2020 01:38 AM

That’s easy to fix, just jot down a bunch of those deaths to double pneumonia or heart failure, and you can make the fatality rate as low as you want! never mind that they’re more than double what you’d see in a normal April! It’s just a coincidence that there’s also a pandemic going on! Ecuador style!

tomte 04-19-2020 02:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monocacy (Post 3577029)
^ Interesting link. Some good information, but they lost me when they cited Snowden at the end.

The site you linked estimated 0.1% to 0.4% mortality rate. This may turn out to be reasonably accurate, but keep in mind that the number of deaths before reaching herd immunity (~75% of the population) would be:

Country .......Deaths (0.1%)........Deaths (0.4%)
Sweden.............7,500...................30,000
US................247,500..................990,000

I'm very well aware of the fact that this virus exists and that it can cause some serious illness and even lead to death. Reaching herd immunity is estimated to take until 2022, there is no way we can have a lock down and quarantine till 2022 without creating bigger problems than those mortality rates. And that is why Sweden doesn't do it. Also death numbers are incorrect. Pretty much all deaths are counted as covid - even if they are not even tested positive for covid. So as someone else wrote - those numbers can be manipulated very easily.


There are a couple of things that piss me off in all of this though:
- we don't have (or get) facts to make good decisions, but decisions are still made
- politicians take the decisions - not scientists. Here again the difference in Sweden - folkhälsomyndigheten gives the recommendations, everyone (more or less) follows them. Not some politicians that need votes for the next election.
- we have a lot more worrying facts on other topics, be it climate change smoking or what not - but nobody even considered shutting down air traffic or putting smokers in quarantine.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:19 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.