#2901  
Old 10-20-2020, 12:19 PM
DiscFifty DiscFifty is offline
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Originally Posted by Jay Dub View Post
Good, we have a long way to go.
Anytime you would like...you know...a more personal encounter, I am so much your huckleberry.
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  #2902  
Old 10-20-2020, 12:20 PM
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DavidSauls DavidSauls is online now
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Originally Posted by txmxer View Post
We love some snake oil-- I think all of humanity does.
I'm a placebo fan, myself. Fewer side effects.
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  #2903  
Old 10-20-2020, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by DiscFifty View Post
Anytime you would like...you know...a more personal encounter, I am so much your huckleberry.
A new personality from you on here? Like I said, you're a fake.
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  #2904  
Old 10-20-2020, 12:27 PM
txmxer txmxer is offline
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Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
I'm a placebo fan, myself. Fewer side effects.
I got the BEST placebo's. What ails you? Are you tired in the evenings? Don't want to get up out of bed some days? Sounds like chronic dehydration. You should try my Therapeutic Asymmetrical Photonically charged enhanced water. It's only $3.99 per bottle, or buy a case of 12 for $40. We use recycled plastic, so it's super green too!

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  #2905  
Old 10-20-2020, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by DG_player View Post
This is definitely the first time in medical history where we have gone from declaring something a "case" solely off of test. Generally it's been reserved for symptomatic persons with a test, or a screening test followed by some more advanced confirmatory test. There's clearly a reason, which is the same reason a lot of things have transpired the way they have. Trying to do the best you can with incomplete continually evolving information.

The problem is how the information is being used and how it's being reported. This is why a lot of people have argued that hospitilizations should be the driving policy factor. Even if you completely discount the false positive angle, there is still a huge skew based solely on the accessibility of testing now vs early in the pandemic. In my state we are getting close to the daily case count of April. The general population draws the conclusion that it's getting as bad as it was then. The media likes to reinforce this, and those in political power are happy to allow it to happen because it creates more support for their policies. In actuality we are in WAY better shape. Ours deaths and hospitalizations are about 10% of what they were then. People fail to remember that early on, at least in my state, in order to get tested you basically had to be hospitalized. If you were sick but not in the hospital you were told to assume you had it and quarantine but there was no test available. Now if you get a sniffle you can call your doctor and get a test. The ratio of actually infected / tested positive today is drastically lower than it was early on. Just look at the US case history. Twice as many people were testing positive in July as April, yet over 2000 people a day were dying in April. If we had the testing capacity we have today back then, you likely would have been well over 100,000 a day for weeks on end.

The flip side of that is when you look at places like Wisconsin. Their case count plus 30% or whatever crazy positivity rate they have, is telling you something much different than the uptick in cases in eastern states with low positivity rates. What they are experiencing is more akin to the first wave that early hit states experienced. They're in some serious hot water.

As far as the "better safe than sorry", I agree with that as long as you're not ignoring the widespread implications of the economic damage, and not just in our country, but worldwide. Something like 400,000 people die of malaria every year in Africa. The WHO estimates that will double this year because of fallout from the covid. Less than 40,000 people have died from Covid in Africa. Malaria is going to kill 10 times as many more in Africa because of Covid, than Covid will actually kill. That's just one disease. That's not even counting the worldwide consequences of poverty and malnutrition.
I generally agree on the cases. The case numbers shouldn't be dismissed, but they should be taken with several grains of salt. Particularly when comparing different nations, or different periods of time. They're also variable based on how many people are tested, and exactly who is tested.

Deaths and hospitalizations are firmer figures. But they're also lagging indicators; rising case numbers are often a precursor of rising hospitalizations and deaths. They also lead people who want to minimize the effects of the virus to dismiss the effects on those who are never hospitalized---the seriously sick at home, the long-haulers, etc. Nor do they describe the number of people likely spreading the virus.

As for the economic and collateral damages, that's true, too. One problem I often see is that many in the "open up" crowd see only that side of the ledger, dismissing the virus entirely. But it's fair to say that some on the other side, treat lockdowns and certain other measures as if they have no effect on peoples' lives except boredom. It's hard to find a discussion that incorporates facts on the consequences of all of our choices.

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  #2906  
Old 10-20-2020, 12:30 PM
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Who wants to volunteer?

Quote:
British scientists said Tuesday they will launch the world's first human challenge trials for covid-19, in which healthy volunteers will be deliberately infected with the coronavirus in hopes of further speeding the drive to a vaccine.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...bec_story.html
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  #2907  
Old 10-20-2020, 12:38 PM
DiscFifty DiscFifty is offline
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Originally Posted by Jay Dub View Post
A new personality from you on here? Like I said, you're a fake.
Just for you Jay. Like I said before, I'm very flattered by all of your attention as I'm sure the whole forum is. I've blushed...and had to ask you to stop flirting, but you sure are persistent. Just how big is that keyboard of yours?
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  #2908  
Old 10-20-2020, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DG_player View Post
This is definitely the first time in medical history where we have gone from declaring something a "case" solely off of test. Generally it's been reserved for symptomatic persons with a test, or a screening test followed by some more advanced confirmatory test. There's clearly a reason, which is the same reason a lot of things have transpired the way they have. Trying to do the best you can with incomplete continually evolving information.

The problem is how the information is being used and how it's being reported. This is why a lot of people have argued that hospitilizations should be the driving policy factor. Even if you completely discount the false positive angle, there is still a huge skew based solely on the accessibility of testing now vs early in the pandemic. In my state we are getting close to the daily case count of April. The general population draws the conclusion that it's getting as bad as it was then. The media likes to reinforce this, and those in political power are happy to allow it to happen because it creates more support for their policies. In actuality we are in WAY better shape. Ours deaths and hospitalizations are about 10% of what they were then. People fail to remember that early on, at least in my state, in order to get tested you basically had to be hospitalized. If you were sick but not in the hospital you were told to assume you had it and quarantine but there was no test available. Now if you get a sniffle you can call your doctor and get a test. The ratio of actually infected / tested positive today is drastically lower than it was early on. Just look at the US case history. Twice as many people were testing positive in July as April, yet over 2000 people a day were dying in April. If we had the testing capacity we have today back then, you likely would have been well over 100,000 a day for weeks on end.

The flip side of that is when you look at places like Wisconsin. Their case count plus 30% or whatever crazy positivity rate they have, is telling you something much different than the uptick in cases in eastern states with low positivity rates. What they are experiencing is more akin to the first wave that early hit states experienced. They're in some serious hot water.

As far as the "better safe than sorry", I agree with that as long as you're not ignoring the widespread implications of the economic damage, and not just in our country, but worldwide. Something like 400,000 people die of malaria every year in Africa. The WHO estimates that will double this year because of fallout from the covid. Less than 40,000 people have died from Covid in Africa. Malaria is going to kill 10 times as many more in Africa because of Covid, than Covid will actually kill. That's just one disease. That's not even counting the worldwide consequences of poverty and malnutrition.
I think testing is kind of a catch 22. There are tons of people that REALLY want data to facilitate opening up the economy. The drive for this data is part of the reason for the push for new and rapid testing, that is providing much of the false positive results. The false positives become the reason to use caution when opening up the economy. Some of the same people pushing for more and rapid testing are the loudest contingent about the end result of that.
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  #2909  
Old 10-20-2020, 03:06 PM
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McCready McCready is offline
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I guess they’re using different testing now, because initially we were told negative results were only ~70% accurate, but positive was 99.9% accurate. Now false positives are rampant? We continue to be the laughingstock of the rest of the world.
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  #2910  
Old 10-20-2020, 03:12 PM
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I saw a new test on the news yesterday(?) that was like a mouth wash. Swish it around and spit it back out. They said it's what the NFL is using.
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