#591  
Old 04-19-2020, 07:27 PM
DiscFifty DiscFifty is online now
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Lots of smart people in this thread, are any of you involved with your local politics?
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  #592  
Old 04-19-2020, 08:42 PM
DG_player DG_player is offline
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Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
People latch on to anything that boosts their pre-existing opinions. In addition to this study, there are lots of doctors and scientists in the world; you can dig up someone with credentials, claiming almost anything.

The consensus may be wrong and the outliers right, of course, but when someone cites one of the latter, I wonder why they choose to believe this one authority here, and not those thousands of authorities there.
I'll be first to admit I was wrong, if you look back I commented that I thought they would eventually find this was no worse or not much worse than the seasonal flu.

All one has to do is look at the new york city data to see this is woefully incorrect. There are over 13,000 deaths already. Even assuming EVERYONE in NYC has coronavirus (which is clearly ridiculous) and that EVERYONE who is going to die from coronavirus already has (which is probably even more ridiculous), you're at a death rate of 0.15%, which is worse than the flu. Clearly this is much worst than the flu. Anyone who continues to repeat otherwise either A. can't do math, B. doesn't know how to distinguish legitimate information on the internet, or C. is being willfully deceitful.

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  #593  
Old 04-19-2020, 08:56 PM
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I'll be first to admit I was wrong, if you look back I commented that I thought they would eventually find this was no worse or not much worse than the seasonal flu.

All one has to do is look at the new york city data to see this is woefully incorrect. There are over 13,000 deaths already. Even assuming EVERYONE in NYC has coronavirus (which is clearly ridiculous) and that EVERYONE who is going to die from coronavirus already has (which is probably even more ridiculous), you're at a death rate of 0.15%, which is worse than the flu. Clearly this is much worst than the flu. Anyone who continues to repeat otherwise either A. can't do math, B. doesn't know how to distinguish legitimate information on the internet, or C. is being willfully deceitful.
I was warning people from start---I know a exponential increase when I see it, and when deaths were jumping from 10 to 20 to 40, I tried telling people I know that a few more doublings and they'd be real numbers. You know, the thing about how if you fold a piece of paper in half 43 times, it will be thick enough to reach the moon? And yet---when our local schools shut down on March 13, I thought and told whoever would listen that they were being premature. Boy, was I wrong on that part.

I have some Dismisser friends, and they're still grasping at A. and B. for anything to try to show that this is overblown. They're wearing me out.

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  #594  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:31 PM
Armus Patheticus Armus Patheticus is offline
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Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
People latch on to anything that boosts their pre-existing opinions. In addition to this study, there are lots of doctors and scientists in the world; you can dig up someone with credentials, claiming almost anything.

The consensus may be wrong and the outliers right, of course, but when someone cites one of the latter, I wonder why they choose to believe this one authority here, and not those thousands of authorities there.
I wouldn't want to encourage anyone to choose their beliefs based on wishes and convenience (as so many do) but there are sometimes valid reasons that some doubt scientific authorities. This is illustrated by my last encounter with epidemiology.

In 2005 my wife and I were working as gear sherpas for a couple of geologists in the Caribbean. Learning a lot from this experience, I became interested in the geology of one particular region back home, and studied it as a hobby for a few years. I recieved several research permits and grants to work in two caves owned by the State of Pennsylvania. Halfway through this project my permits were revoked due to the influence of USFWS policy that assumed, based on tons of science, that humans were spreading a deadly fungal disease between bat populations. But they weren't, and it was easy to see the science being bent into the desired conclusion. In fact, some of the very studies being used to prove human spread remain to this day the most powerful evidence against human spread. A lot of ignorant people took this bad science very seriously.

What has this little story got to do with the current situation? Not much. Only I didn't and don't fully understand the motives of those bat biologists, and I don't understand the motives of these current epidemiologists. I don't deny their conclusions, but I don't trust them. Any of them, at either extreme. Everyone has an angle. There is no mechanism in place to protect we the ignorant from those angles. Peer review sounds great but it's useless if we aren't peers of the scientists. Our trust of science is a religion most similar to Catholicism in the times of clerical peer-review and dispensation to the wholly ignorant masses.

Science has proved its power. It has yet to prove its wisdom.
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  #595  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:36 PM
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BogeyNoMore BogeyNoMore is offline
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I don't see how anyone can say it's overblown when we've got more cases than any other country in the world. It's worth telling those people that the only reason you could possibly think it's overblown is specifically because of the steps we've taken: business/school/public gathering shut downs, stay at home orders and social distancing.

Your oil change analogy is quite apropos:

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Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
Some of the dismissers are now saying that it hasn't been as bad as predicted, as if that happened in a vacuum. It's like me saying I've changed my oil on schedule, and my engine hasn't blown up, so I wasted time and money changing my oil. Unfortunately, we can't run a test by putting a bunch of people on an isolated island, letting them "business as usual", and see if, unchecked, it's really no big deal. Though if we could, I've got some nominees for the trial.
... and as contagious as this thing is this point, I think we have an idea what the underlined would have been like. Can you imagine how much worse this would have been had schools and non-essential businesses reopened after just 2-3 weeks? Chances are it would have spread through any business with employees whose kids attend school.


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Lots of smart people in this thread, are any of you involved with your local politics?
I get your point, but I wouldn't wish that on anyone,

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Last edited by BogeyNoMore; 04-19-2020 at 09:39 PM.
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  #596  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:43 PM
paul2432 paul2432 is offline
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Originally Posted by Jay Dub View Post
I never said there weren't any covidiots here, just that Ohio is doing relatively well, the guide lines have been set and in my area it's working for the most part.
The Ohio governor was cited in an article recently in (I think) the New York Times. It basically said Ohio's governor was really the first governor in the nation to really try and address the issue as aggressively as he did. He called off a huge sports event in Columbus (again I think lol) and was first or second for shutting down the schools to help stop the spread. I live in Western NY and I think Cuomo has done an admirable job with the virus, but then I see on FB people bitching about him tonight. It just boggles the mind.

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  #597  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:44 PM
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I'm not playing down anything, but saying that the USA has more cases than anyone is like saying Ohio has more cases than Rhode Island so Ohio must have done it wrong.
Per capita is the correct number. It's always about percentage.

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  #598  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by paul2432 View Post
The Ohio governor was cited in an article recently in (I think) the New York Times. It basically said Ohio's governor was really the first governor in the nation to really try and address the issue as aggressively as he did. He called off a huge sports event in Columbus (again I think lol) and was first or second for shutting down the schools to help stop the spread. I live in Western NY and I think Cuomo has done an admirable job with the virus, but then I see on FB people bitching about him tonight. It just boggles the mind.
You're correct. March 2nd he shut down the Arnold weight lifting competition costing Columbus an estimated $50 mil+.
BBC did a story on him about this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52113186
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  #599  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:55 PM
pearlybakerbest pearlybakerbest is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Armus Patheticus View Post
I wouldn't want to encourage anyone to choose their beliefs based on wishes and convenience (as so many do) but there are sometimes valid reasons that some doubt scientific authorities.

Science has proved its power. It has yet to prove its wisdom.
There is a reason many scientist were in Epstein's little black book.
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  #600  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:56 PM
broomerang broomerang is offline
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Originally Posted by robdeforge View Post
do you live with your covid disc partners?
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Originally Posted by Jay Dub View Post
We're following our local and state guide lines. Doesn't matter to me if you agree with it or not.
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Originally Posted by robdeforge View Post
in other words, "no"
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Originally Posted by Jay Dub View Post
I never said there weren't any covidiots here, just that Ohio is doing relatively well, the guide lines have been set and in my area it's working for the most part.

And I don't play with idiots ... The other 2 are good, sensible people.
Thanks Jay Dub. We're doing our best to stay safe, keeping plenty of distance, no touching, no putting. We've all got loved ones we're concerned about and wouldn't want to be the guy that puts them in the hospital.

We've seen some idiots out there. Honestly though we've seen far more non-disc golfer idiots than. There are more of these people than disc golfers so that makes sense. We keep an extra wide berth of those groups.

I'm still way more concerned about the hour a week I'm forced to go into the grocery store than my round of disc golf. I have a very stressful job with long hours (working from home, no risk), a round a week has been the highlight of my week for a long time. I'm blessed to have throwing partners like Jay Dub who are good people and not idiots that I need to be worried about being around while this Covid stuff is going on.

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