#271  
Old 06-18-2019, 01:50 PM
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Three Putt Three Putt is offline
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Originally Posted by SD86 View Post
I don't disagree with you. My thought on a 'solution' for that is to release the Trilogy Challenge discs as special runs that won't be expected to go into production (unless they become the next Teebird or Destroyer and sales go through the roof). Some kind of Limited Edition or Tour Series type of thing. To that point, they could just release special runs/plastics for existing discs for the Trilogy Challenge.

My previous point was that they're saying the discs cut were the low 10% of sales, but I don't know how they can reasonably extrapolate that for the Patrol on so little time. Kinda a circular argument, as well...
Also not disagreeing, just speculating. I figure they have released enough discs to know from a couple of months of sales if it is a hit or miss, and they probably got feedback from players from the Trilogy Challenge about the Patrol. That to me leaves open the possibility that they got bad feedback about it from the get-go and it didn't sell when they released it, so they had no reason to expect anything from it. If you have to cut molds and everything seems to indicate that a new release is a dud, why keep it? If the 12 molds was a hard and fast number, you would have to cut something players actually seem to buy and bag a little bit to keep the Patrol. Just cut it now since no one seems to throw it or care. It seems like it might have actually been the easiest disc to cut.

As for the Trilogy Challenge, I think Discraft already had a problem with a glut of Stratus-ish discs from the Ace Race and that was just from needed to release one a year. Both MVP and Lat 64 started this thing where there is a bunch of discs coming out just for specialty events, which causes even more lineup problems. I would think both of those companies are going to need to rethink that strategy or get used to discontinuing discs every couple years.

Vibram let you choose existing molds for the Birdie Bash, maybe they could do a combo of the ideas and release one new disc and let you chose two others from existing molds? Or like you said, make them LE releases or just have them for sale online only at something like a factory store website and not expect vendors to carry them. Then if one was actually a huge hit with the players, they could put it in regular production.

At any rate, I don't think either the Trilogy Challenge or the MVP Circuit events can keep churning out discs like they have been. It's not sustainable.
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  #272  
Old 06-18-2019, 01:59 PM
Moose33 Moose33 is offline
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That could be cool, to do like an interesting stamp or plastic release. I’d be perfectly happy with an Escape, Bard, Pure TC pack, especially if it had an interesting stamp.
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  #273  
Old 06-18-2019, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by tbird888 View Post
They did lose their biggest asset when Ricky jumped ship.
Not to mention a lot of their 2nd/3rd tier guys...who do they have at this point? JohnE?

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Originally Posted by Three Putt View Post
Which would create a squeeze for everyone else. The "not Innova/not Discraft" share of the market used to be Lightning, Millennium and Gateway. Now you have Lat 64, Discmania, Dynamic, Legacy, Prodigy, MVP... The rumor has been that these companies really have not cut into Innova's market share much and all exist in the market share Discraft abdicated. If that's anywhere close to true, the new Discraft is bad news for all of them.

Of course that is all speculation. Since no one releases sales numbers, nobody really knows what the overall market looks like.
Isn't the rule of thumb that Innova pretty much owns 85-90% of the market and everybody else fights over the remaining 10-15%?
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  #274  
Old 06-18-2019, 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Three Putt View Post
Which would create a squeeze for everyone else. The "not Innova/not Discraft" share of the market used to be Lightning, Millennium and Gateway. Now you have Lat 64, Discmania, Dynamic, Legacy, Prodigy, MVP... The rumor has been that these companies really have not cut into Innova's market share much and all exist in the market share Discraft abdicated. If that's anywhere close to true, the new Discraft is bad news for all of them.

Of course that is all speculation. Since no one releases sales numbers, nobody really knows what the overall market looks like.
This is completely anecdotal but I would be very surprised if Innova didn't lose some market share b/c there are way less Innova-only guys running around then there used to be. Even casuals seem to carry a lot more non-Innova.
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  #275  
Old 06-18-2019, 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Three Putt View Post
Which would create a squeeze for everyone else. The "not Innova/not Discraft" share of the market used to be Lightning, Millennium and Gateway. Now you have Lat 64, Discmania, Dynamic, Legacy, Prodigy, MVP... The rumor has been that these companies really have not cut into Innova's market share much and all exist in the market share Discraft abdicated. If that's anywhere close to true, the new Discraft is bad news for all of them.

Of course that is all speculation. Since no one releases sales numbers, nobody really knows what the overall market looks like.
I think I read that Prodigy is #2 in Europe, so they should be safe.

Unlike most of the other disc companies, MVP used a bottom up approach in marketing. Pros have very little effect on them, I think they also will be fine.

Locally, Discraft is cutting into Innova/Trilogy, not MVP. I am seeing more MVP since Paul went to Discraft. Lots of newer players are throwing them.
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  #276  
Old 06-18-2019, 02:38 PM
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aphilso1 aphilso1 is online now
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Originally Posted by Three Putt View Post
Oh, so they kept the Verdict? OK, so basically it doesn't sell either and was close to being cut. To be honest, I know nothing about their discs so these are just names on a list, sorry that I get them mixed up.

The thing with your analysis is that all 12 of the discs make up <10% of their overall sales. If all of their flippy mids were on this list along with what...seven other discs? That's showing flippy mids are not selling for them at all. There was no boost to expect. I get what you are saying, but if they had to cut 12 you are asking them to cut a disc that does sell to keep a disc in a segment where nothing is selling. From a team aspect, their players can throw a Fuse or Tursas. It leaves a big hole in their lineup, but it will probably get filled in the next Trilogy Challenge.

So was it a mistake to cut all the flippy mids? Maybe. Probably. I don't think it will be a long-term situation, and in the short-term none of them were selling. So not a huge mistake and one that can be recovered from.
Yeah, they did keep the Verdict in production. But in Rusco's podcast he said the Verdict was the one mold that just barely stayed in production; turns out it was on the fence when everyone assumed it was safe.

Using back-of-the-napkin-math I still think they would've been better served by not leaving such giant gaps in their lineup. They produce 34 molds, so the average mold produces roughly 3% of their total sales. The 12 molds they cut were instead producing only 10% of sales, so each was producing only 1/3 of the sales of an average mold. Both the Slammer/Suspect/Verdict slot and the Evidence/Warrant/Patrol slot are fairly niche discs, meaning most players will only carry one of those three molds. So yeah, it makes sense to cut 2 of the 3 molds for each slot but not all three. If you keep one and cut 2, and get a boost in the sales of the remaining mold due to decluttering the lineup, then concevably the remaining molds would be closer to in line with what their sales should be.

I guess time will tell. If they see a strong boost in Verdict sales, then that tells me they likely should have kept one of the Evidence/Warrant/Patrol combo, too.

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  #277  
Old 06-18-2019, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by SD86 View Post
My thought on a 'solution' for that is to release the Trilogy Challenge discs as special runs that won't be expected to go into production (unless they become the next Teebird or Destroyer and sales go through the roof). Some kind of Limited Edition or Tour Series type of thing. To that point, they could just release special runs/plastics for existing discs for the Trilogy Challenge.
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Originally Posted by Moose33 View Post
That could be cool, to do like an interesting stamp or plastic release. Id be perfectly happy with an Escape, Bard, Pure TC pack, especially if it had an interesting stamp.
This seems like an excellent idea. Personally, I've never been very interested in doing a Trilogy Challenge in the current format. I'm not that interested in trying 3 new molds that someone else curated, especially since even if I like one of them I won't be able to get a backup for it until the disc goes into full production. The idea of doing a cool limited edition of existing popular molds is much more appealing. I still likely wouldn't do the TC most years, but I would at least consider it if it was for a mold I love. Or even better: do a TC of three OOP molds that everyone misses
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  #278  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Three Putt View Post
Also not disagreeing, just speculating. I figure they have released enough discs to know from a couple of months of sales if it is a hit or miss, and they probably got feedback from players from the Trilogy Challenge about the Patrol. That to me leaves open the possibility that they got bad feedback about it from the get-go and it didn't sell when they released it, so they had no reason to expect anything from it. If you have to cut molds and everything seems to indicate that a new release is a dud, why keep it? If the 12 molds was a hard and fast number, you would have to cut something players actually seem to buy and bag a little bit to keep the Patrol. Just cut it now since no one seems to throw it or care. It seems like it might have actually been the easiest disc to cut.

As for the Trilogy Challenge, I think Discraft already had a problem with a glut of Stratus-ish discs from the Ace Race and that was just from needed to release one a year. Both MVP and Lat 64 started this thing where there is a bunch of discs coming out just for specialty events, which causes even more lineup problems. I would think both of those companies are going to need to rethink that strategy or get used to discontinuing discs every couple years.

Vibram let you choose existing molds for the Birdie Bash, maybe they could do a combo of the ideas and release one new disc and let you chose two others from existing molds? Or like you said, make them LE releases or just have them for sale online only at something like a factory store website and not expect vendors to carry them. Then if one was actually a huge hit with the players, they could put it in regular production.

At any rate, I don't think either the Trilogy Challenge or the MVP Circuit events can keep churning out discs like they have been. It's not sustainable.
Hey Working Stiff, there's a Millennium Challenge near you that is run the way these events should be run! https://challenge.golfdisc.com/

Much like the Vibram Challenges - but a wider selection. I wish there was one of those near me.
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  #279  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:06 PM
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Three Putt Three Putt is offline
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Originally Posted by BrotherDave View Post
This is completely anecdotal but I would be very surprised if Innova didn't lose some market share b/c there are way less Innova-only guys running around then there used to be. Even casuals seem to carry a lot more non-Innova.
It very well could be because there is no way of knowing. Innova could be seeing sales growth and losing market share at the same time; even they wouldn't know it since no one knows the overall sales.

The brand loyalty thing I used to notice in tournament players, casuals will throw whatever. There is a lot more whatever around anymore, so it makes sense that they would have more non-Innova.

So far as the tournament players, I'm stuck in a niche market. We are a small, isolated town with a new scene and a couple of years ago a guy named Kyle Giovannini was stationed at the nearby military base. Nice guy, good player. He had(has?) a Dynamic sponsorship. He was immediately the Alpha Male when he got here and the 25 or so people involved with our local club en masse converted to Dynamic with a lot of them switching their entire bags to Dynamic Discs. The people I play with most of the time pull Dynamic carts carrying Dynamic backpacks full of Dynamic Discs. If you took my local scene as a snapshot of disc golf, the idea that Dynamic was suffering in any sort of way would be shocking.
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  #280  
Old 06-18-2019, 03:13 PM
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SD86 SD86 is offline
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Originally Posted by BrotherDave View Post
This is completely anecdotal but I would be very surprised if Innova didn't lose some market share b/c there are way less Innova-only guys running around then there used to be. Even casuals seem to carry a lot more non-Innova.
This can be "confirmed" by a look at Disc Golf Center's list of bestselling molds. Before McBeast went to Discraft, that list was pretty much all-Innova, with occasionally one non-Innova mold peeking in from time to time. Now, it's still Innova-dominated, but several other brands' molds are on the list at any given time. So Innova isn't exactly hurting, but their percentage of the overall market share may not be quite as high...
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