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View Poll Results: Which of these best describes Hole 18 at the Utah Open?
A par 2 where 38% of throws are errors, and 1% of throws are hero throws. 6 25.00%
A par 3 where 24% of throws are errors, and 33% of throws are hero throws. 16 66.67%
A par 4 where 16% of throws are hero throws, and 23% are double heroes. 1 4.17%
A par 5 where 37% of throws are hero throws, and 21% are double heroes. 0 0%
A par 6 where 16% of throws are hero throws, and 62% are double heroes. 1 4.17%
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  #3451  
Old 01-08-2019, 02:15 PM
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DavidSauls DavidSauls is offline
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Originally Posted by DG_player View Post
That's the problem with using a complicated statistical method to define par.

It makes much more sense to look at the physical layout of a hole, and come to a reasonable conclusion of how many shots it should take for an expert to hole out assuming they don't screw up. If you want to back that up with a simple statistical method, such as an average or median, to determine if the original conclusion was accurate, that's fine. However I don't see the benefit in doing anything more complicated than that.
I look at the statistics as a validation, not setting par. Set it based on expectations. Look at the numbers to see if that expectation was realistic.

But if the numbers show that reality didn't meet the expectations, high or low, should those results affect future expectations? If you expect a 4 and 70% get 3s, next year should you expect 4s, or 3s? If so, are statistics then setting par? Or merely advising it?
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  #3452  
Old 01-12-2019, 11:08 AM
DG_player DG_player is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
I look at the statistics as a validation, not setting par. Set it based on expectations. Look at the numbers to see if that expectation was realistic.

But if the numbers show that reality didn't meet the expectations, high or low, should those results affect future expectations? If you expect a 4 and 70% get 3s, next year should you expect 4s, or 3s? If so, are statistics then setting par? Or merely advising it?
Hopefully you would use the information to tweak the hole in the future. If that's not an option for whatever reason, I guess changing par is an option, but I would still view the statistics as being in an advisory role.
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  #3453  
Old 01-12-2019, 12:26 PM
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DavidSauls DavidSauls is offline
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Originally Posted by DG_player View Post
Hopefully you would use the information to tweak the hole in the future. If that's not an option for whatever reason, I guess changing par is an option, but I would still view the statistics as being in an advisory role.
Yes, always advisory.

Tweaking makes sense if it produces too much of the same score, or too wide a gap (more 2s and 4s than 3s). If possible.

But par must be assigned to good holes and bad holes alike.

In brief, the expected score. If the results tell us that we should have expected something other than what we initially thought, then in the future we should probably expect something different, too.

*

I only have to worry about this for one course and, without a lot of 1000-rated players and no events catering to them, it doesn't matter a whole lot. So we look at it subjectively: the way the holes were designed and intended to play. We look at the results---the median score, the most common score, even the average---and use judgment as to whether we should modify the pars we set.
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  #3454  
Old 01-12-2019, 02:25 PM
biscoe biscoe is offline
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Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post

So we look at it subjectively: the way the holes were designed and intended to play. We look at the results---the median score, the most common score, even the average---and use judgment as to whether we should modify the pars we set.
How many have you had to change over the years (par, not the hole itself)?
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  #3455  
Old 01-12-2019, 03:26 PM
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DavidSauls DavidSauls is offline
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How many have you had to change over the years (par, not the hole itself)?
Two come to mind. They are holes that play well, are cool and fun to play, and we were arguing about the par to begin with. The best data we had was the open division and, after seeing their scores over a few years, I relented to setting the higher par. I still whine about it, and am surprised that the holes score as high as they do. If I was sole owner, I might have left them as originally set.

But that's being fairly casual about par because, as I said, we're not hosting elite-level events or a lot of 1000-rated players. For the past few years we haven't held singles tournaments, so it matters even less.
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  #3456  
Old 01-12-2019, 03:29 PM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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...For the past few years we haven't held singles tournaments, so it matters even less.
So, should we get started talking about appropriate pars for doubles play?
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  #3457  
Old 01-12-2019, 03:48 PM
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So, should we get started talking about appropriate pars for doubles play?
I don't even want to see how complex the formulas would be.

Our main event is a 4-man team-play events, with combinations of match play, best disc, and other formats. So even that wouldn't help us much.

But casual players keep asking "What's par on this hole", and we need an answer. Sometimes I have to stop and think, because it doesn't matter enough to me to keep them fresh in my mind. I'm a little uncomfortable with skill-level pars, but I suspect that our pars are blue-level ones.

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  #3458  
Old 01-12-2019, 10:23 PM
DG_player DG_player is offline
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So, should we get started talking about appropriate pars for doubles play?
That's crazy talk!
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  #3459  
Old 01-12-2019, 11:33 PM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
I don't even want to see how complex the formulas would be. ...
Well . . . too bad.


Because you'll not be able to look away. Actually, it's pretty simple if you use my method of setting par.

Let's take a step back. It's probably OK, and certainly the most practical, to just use the singles pars and see a lot of birdies or bogeys.

However, I want to know the theoretical expected (etc.) score of a pair of expert players.

And, since we don't have enough data about two 1000-rated players playing each hole, I wanted to find a method that uses the 1000-rated single-player scoring distributions.

Since my method is based on the chance that the player will make a good enough throw to get par, it's easy to extrapolate to doubles. If a single player has, say, a 90% chance of making a good enough throw, then in best throw a pair of 1000-rated players would have a 99% chance of making a good enough throw to get par.

So, I just need to adjust the exponents in my method. For best throw it means doubling the exponents. For example, for a par 3, the cutoff is 7/9ths raised to the sixth power instead of the 3rd. For Worst throw, the exponents are halved. For Tough throw, it's a combination since tough throw is best throw for the last throw, and worst throw for the rest.

Anyway, that leads to the following table:

To get par for each kind of play, pick the lowest score which at least the following percentages of singles 1000-rated players get.

Code:
Par	 Singles	    Best	   Worst	   Tough
  2	     60%	     37%	     78%	     53%
  3	     47%	     22%	     69%	     47%
  4	     37%	     13%	     60%	     41%
  5	     28%	      8%	     53%	     37%
  6	     22%	      5%	     47%	     32%
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  #3460  
Old 01-13-2019, 06:56 AM
biscoe biscoe is offline
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Doubles par= singles par= triples par for the same level player. Of course the scores relative to it will be lower...

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