#161  
Old 09-21-2019, 03:46 PM
DiscFifty DiscFifty is offline
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Originally Posted by AHagglund View Post
I see where the logic is coming from here. It is true that in a weird, hypothetical case where a field of rec players score identical to a field of pros on the same course, the pros would be rated higher for the same score. In reality though, this scenario will never, ever happen. A field of recreational players will play at or near rec level and a field of pro players will play at or near pro level almost every time.
I agree that hypothetical scenario is not realistic, but all it takes is the same score in the mpo division vs the same score in an am division, and if the 2 divisions are rated separately the mpo division will more than likely have the higher rated round, simply due to the fact that the avg rating pool was higher in mpo. Seems like a tweak on the ratings algorithm could be explored.
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  #162  
Old 09-21-2019, 06:06 PM
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jeverett jeverett is online now
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Originally Posted by DiscFifty View Post
I agree that hypothetical scenario is not realistic, but all it takes is the same score in the mpo division vs the same score in an am division, and if the 2 divisions are rated separately the mpo division will more than likely have the higher rated round, simply due to the fact that the avg rating pool was higher in mpo. Seems like a tweak on the ratings algorithm could be explored.
I'm pretty sure Chuck has presented data on that before, and there's no statistically significant bias toward a higher-rated field. Here's an example from the event I help run:

https://www.pdga.com/tour/event/38880

Round 1 Pros and Round 2 Ams were on the same course and same layout (one played in the morning, and the other in the afternoon) under essentially identical conditions, and the Am ratings are ~9 points higher for the same score.

Basically, yes, when two fields play the same layout at different times/days, even under essentially identical conditions you can get the same score coming out with a different rating for the two fields, just there isn't a particular directional bias (in favor of the Pro group). You can even see round rating fluctuations when the exact same field plays the same layout multiple times in a row (e.g. compare rounds 2 and 3 there for the MPO division). The PDGA rating system just isn't *that* precise or reliable.. it wasn't ever designed to be. It's intended simply to be able to group players into broad ~50-rating-point-wide brackets (divisions).

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Old 09-21-2019, 10:38 PM
LateWesternSky LateWesternSky is offline
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Originally Posted by JC17393 View Post
I don't think the odds change much at all on a shorter course because you still expect McBeth to throw 1000+ rated rounds there. Just because the throws count for 11 or 12 points per instead of 7-8 like you see at longer championship courses, doesn't mean it's more likely that he'll throw up a stinker. The guy has two sub-1000 rounds in the last two years and his current rating excludes a 1007 round for being too low for his average.

For he and an 800 rated player to tie for a round, the 800 rated player is probably going to have to play the round of their life (to that point) and get pretty close to 1000 to have a chance. And he's still hoping for McBeth to have an unusually bad round at the same time.
My post was about a 1000 rated player. Paul McBeth is not a 1000 rated player. Basically what I'm saying is, it would not be mind blowing for someone to shoot 100 points below their rating on the same day someone shoots 100 points above their rating, on any course in the world.
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Old 09-21-2019, 11:32 PM
DiscFifty DiscFifty is offline
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[QUOTE=jeverett;3499701]I'm pretty sure Chuck has presented data on that before, and there's no statistically significant bias toward a higher-rated field. Here's an example from the event I help run:

https://www.pdga.com/tour/event/38880/QUOTE]

Thank you for commenting, but that's not the scenario I am discussing. In your case the ams and pros were all rated in the same "pool" so it resulted in normal slight rating fluxuations. Now, if the ams only played a day or week later, resulting in the ams being rated against just the ams, I believe that's where you would see different ratings, not because of pro vs am, but because the overall ratings pool (should) be higher for the pros.
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Old 09-22-2019, 12:14 AM
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Originally Posted by DiscFifty View Post
Thank you for commenting, but that's not the scenario I am discussing. In your case the ams and pros were all rated in the same "pool" so it resulted in normal slight rating fluxuations. Now, if the ams only played a day or week later, resulting in the ams being rated against just the ams, I believe that's where you would see different ratings, not because of pro vs am, but because the overall ratings pool (should) be higher for the pros.
Umm.. I'm afraid that's not correct. In 'unofficial' ratings (which appear in the event I linked, because it was so recent), multiple fields playing the same course at different times are *not* combined for the purposes of ratings. That's why a rating difference exists between the pro and am pools for the same score, despite the essential identical conditions. In between the 'unofficial' and 'official' ratings, the PDGA makes an internal determination whether or not the two field's ratings are "close enough" to combine them into a single pool (i.e. are the conditions really effectively the same). I don't know if Chuck Kennedy has ever published the exact statistical comparison the PDGA uses to determine whether two fields playing the same course and layout should be combined into a single pool for ratings purposes. Given the similar ratings between the two fields in this case (only ~10 rating points apart), however, I strongly suspect that the two fields will be combined for the 'official' ratings, and at that point both fields will get the same rating for the same round score. You're welcome to keep an eye on that particular event to see it happen once the results are verified and become 'official'.. I'd also recommend actually reaching out to Chuck Kennedy if you have any questions about unofficial vs official round ratings, and how fields are/are not combined into the ratings calculations.

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Old 09-22-2019, 12:21 AM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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Originally Posted by jeverett View Post
..... I'd also recommend actually reaching out to Chuck Kennedy if you have any questions about unofficial vs official round ratings, and how fields are/are not combined into the ratings calculations.
First, read this page:

https://www.pdga.com/faq/ratings-0

Then, if you still have a question, click on the Ratings Committee link on this page:

https://www.pdga.com/contact

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  #167  
Old 10-09-2019, 02:52 PM
DiscFifty DiscFifty is offline
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1060 and rising. Congrats Paul!

And for the nay sayers...

https://www.pdga.com/faq/ratings-0#t133n207021

"Is it true that players earn better ratings for the same score when a bunch of top, higher rated players compete in the event?"
Yes...

The faq goes on to try to explain why.. but the explanation is a bit foggy. I agree it's not due to just the top higher rated pros, it's due to the avg rating of the pool getting higher and higher.
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