#61  
Old 07-11-2019, 10:36 AM
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ChrisWoj ChrisWoj is offline
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Originally Posted by JC17393 View Post
1043 in late 2006...at age 38. The true caveat being that for much of Climo's prime, there were no ratings. Who knows what 1997 Ken Climo, at the same age that McBeth is now, would have been rated as he won his seventh consecutive World title.
I was going to try to extrapolate a wildly speculative post on his possible rating based on worlds winning margins and his 1998 rounds when they instituted ratings. And then I noted that, right now, it shows in the final full round between Scott Stokely and Climo there's a 1 stroke and 30 point difference. And there are numerous other ones - I think Climo's early rounds look odd as well. But THAT could be explained away because of pools. Hard to say, but that last round being so weird makes it completely unreliable to even speculate from.

I was going to speculate that based on that - likely 1040-50. He usually won Worlds by like 1-5 strokes, and in the one year he won by 18 he really only had one other big event that he won running away. It was Japan, so you could speculate he just wasn't being challenged to play better and brought it at the biggest of the year, but that isn't a recipe for an absurd rating and that's what we're talking about.



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The last time Ricky had a higher rating than Paul was December 2013. In fact, Ricky was ahead of Paul for most of that year and it was the only time he has ever been the higher rated between the two. They also had the same rating in June/July last year but beyond that, Paul has been higher rated than Ricky throughout their careers.
This actually took me back to look at another Ricky comparison... I hadn't lined up the ratings this way before, but I looked month by month at D-Wig Jr. compared to Ricky. In May 2010, going into Amateur Nationals, Wiggins was 997 and Ricky was 972. Wiggins hit 1000 the June update after AmNats. Ricky hit 1000 in October. They both hit 1010+ in May of 2011. Ricky hit 1020s in September of 2011. Wiggins hit 1020s in December of 2011. Ricky hit 1030s in July of 2012. Wiggins never did (and while I know I heard Wiggins focused on other things later - his professional high for rounds played in a single update [95] came in after that point, so he didn't peter off just then).

Can you imagine what the top of the field would look like if we'd had a 100% retention rate (accounting for career choices, injury issues...) - Paul McBeth, Ricky Wysocki, Will Schusterick, and David Wiggins Jr. If Will doesn't get hurt and move on to other focuses, and if disc golf appears more viable as a career for Wiggins... imagine a top 4 with two more guys on that Paul/Ricky level... I know some other younger guys like AB and Eagle are coming around, but man what coulda been with that general age cohort.

(of course, I'm sure that can be said for every generation, there are lots of names from that cohort that stopped elevating even earlier - like Blair Bose or that just haven't played on the big stages as pros - like Oscar Stenfelt)
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  #62  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:44 AM
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ChrisWoj ChrisWoj is offline
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Who likes statistical analysis? I like statistical analysis! What better way to avoid performing analysis I'm getting paid to do than to do analysis I'm not getting paid to do!

I've attached two images. They are outputs from SPSS statistical software. I ran a One-Way ANCOVA (Analysis of Covariance). With a dependent (continuous) variable of rating I ran it for a fixed factor of sponsor. For a covariate, wanting to control for event, I used events that Paul McBeth played in 2019 and also played in any years 2015-2018. I cut out the earlier GBO and Las Vegas/GCC years because know the courses were totally changed. I know some others mess with layout (Ledgestone) but decided to not mess with that confounding factor due to general time limits.

First attachment - adjusted averages. Under sponsor "1" (Innova) he averaged 1051.84 in the rounds identified. Under sponsor "2" (Discraft) he averaged 1057.92. These are the averages with the event taken into consideration. The confidence interval is important - under sponsor "1" there's a 95% confidence that a McBeth rating will fall in the 1047.02-1056.66 range. Under sponsor "2" there's a 95% confidence that his rating will fall between 1050.64-1065.21.

While this looks like a clear cut case for Discraft on its face - keep in mind that what we look at statistically is that overlap in confidence intervals. That 1050.64-1056.66 overlap range indicates that, according to the second attachment (look at the "Sponsor" row) we would see an outcome like this 17% (p = .170) of the time on simple variation from Paul McBeth. We take numbers to mean a whole lot more with a whole lot less statistical significance in sports in general - so maybe this is enough to be significant to you.

Caveat: I have 89 rounds from Innova here, and only 39 rounds from Discraft. Pairing that with the standard deviation for the Discraft rounds being a good deal higher and we get an analysis that screams out for another look-in in a year or so.

EDIT: Another problem: Running rating as continuous bugs me. I don't think it has a true zero, and I'm not totally sure if it catches the impact of ratings. I think one idea would be to run a Rasch analysis on ratings in general to really get a sense for what every rating means relative to the others on a more proportional scale. But I don't have access to those spreadsheets. CHUUUUUUUUUUCK?
Attached Images
File Type: jpg mcbeth-ratingbysponsor-adjdesc.JPG (27.7 KB, 43 views)
File Type: jpg mcbeth-ratingbysponsor-btwnsubeffects.JPG (44.3 KB, 36 views)


Last edited by ChrisWoj; 07-11-2019 at 11:46 AM.
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  #63  
Old 07-11-2019, 05:49 PM
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BENFTS BENFTS is offline
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Originally Posted by hurricaine View Post
He was sponsored by them long before they had plastic.
Jeez....not like I've been playing/following the game since 1994 or anything.

Just an FYI tho...the DD escape was approved in 2012....that's while McBeth was still sponsored by DD. If memory serves PMCB signed his big four year deal with Innova in late 2013 which then precluded him from wearing DD apparel.
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  #64  
Old 07-11-2019, 05:58 PM
JC17393 JC17393 is offline
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Originally Posted by BENFTS View Post
Jeez....not like I've been playing/following the game since 1994 or anything.

Just an FYI tho...the DD escape was approved in 2012....that's while McBeth was still sponsored by DD. If memory serves PMCB signed his big four year deal with Innova in late 2013 which then precluded him from wearing DD apparel.
DD started production and sales on their first four molds (Escape, Judge, Fugitive, Trespass) in December 2012. At that point, their previously sponsored players, including McBeth, Pierce, Ulibarri, Locastro, and others, left DD and the only players DD retained were ones who would be switching to their products (along with Lat64 and Westside) such as Eric McCabe.

So while they may have been in the preparation stages of launching their disc line, McBeth was never sponsored by them at a point where they were actually producing and selling their discs.
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  #65  
Old 07-11-2019, 06:15 PM
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BogeyNoMore BogeyNoMore is offline
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Yeah, dude can play.
















But can he write a great review?

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  #66  
Old 07-11-2019, 06:21 PM
jakebake91 jakebake91 is offline
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Originally Posted by ChrisWoj View Post
Who likes statistical analysis? I like statistical analysis! What better way to avoid performing analysis I'm getting paid to do than to do analysis I'm not getting paid to do!

I've attached two images. They are outputs from SPSS statistical software. I ran a One-Way ANCOVA (Analysis of Covariance). With a dependent (continuous) variable of rating I ran it for a fixed factor of sponsor. For a covariate, wanting to control for event, I used events that Paul McBeth played in 2019 and also played in any years 2015-2018. I cut out the earlier GBO and Las Vegas/GCC years because know the courses were totally changed. I know some others mess with layout (Ledgestone) but decided to not mess with that confounding factor due to general time limits.

First attachment - adjusted averages. Under sponsor "1" (Innova) he averaged 1051.84 in the rounds identified. Under sponsor "2" (Discraft) he averaged 1057.92. These are the averages with the event taken into consideration. The confidence interval is important - under sponsor "1" there's a 95% confidence that a McBeth rating will fall in the 1047.02-1056.66 range. Under sponsor "2" there's a 95% confidence that his rating will fall between 1050.64-1065.21.

While this looks like a clear cut case for Discraft on its face - keep in mind that what we look at statistically is that overlap in confidence intervals. That 1050.64-1056.66 overlap range indicates that, according to the second attachment (look at the "Sponsor" row) we would see an outcome like this 17% (p = .170) of the time on simple variation from Paul McBeth. We take numbers to mean a whole lot more with a whole lot less statistical significance in sports in general - so maybe this is enough to be significant to you.

Caveat: I have 89 rounds from Innova here, and only 39 rounds from Discraft. Pairing that with the standard deviation for the Discraft rounds being a good deal higher and we get an analysis that screams out for another look-in in a year or so.

EDIT: Another problem: Running rating as continuous bugs me. I don't think it has a true zero, and I'm not totally sure if it catches the impact of ratings. I think one idea would be to run a Rasch analysis on ratings in general to really get a sense for what every rating means relative to the others on a more proportional scale. But I don't have access to those spreadsheets. CHUUUUUUUUUUCK?
I sure do appreciate a full blown geek out!! I say that sincerely lol
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  #67  
Old 07-12-2019, 08:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BENFTS View Post
Jeez....not like I've been playing/following the game since 1994 or anything.

Just an FYI tho...the DD escape was approved in 2012....that's while McBeth was still sponsored by DD. If memory serves PMCB signed his big four year deal with Innova in late 2013 which then precluded him from wearing DD apparel.
Speaking as someone who was on DD at the time: McBeth was not with us once discs started being released. He did not throw a mixed bag at any time that he was with DD. He threw Innova.
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Old 07-12-2019, 09:49 AM
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BENFTS BENFTS is offline
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Originally Posted by ChrisWoj View Post
Speaking as someone who was on DD at the time: McBeth was not with us once discs started being released. He did not throw a mixed bag at any time that he was with DD. He threw Innova.
Nobody is saying McBeth threw DD plastic....that's not being debated here. The whole point is that he was still under contract with DD when discs were approved and manufactured. I know this because I have video of him that CCDG and I filmed at the 2013 Masters Cup wearing a DD shirt.

Last edited by BENFTS; 07-12-2019 at 09:52 AM.
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Old 07-12-2019, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by JC17393 View Post
DD started production and sales on their first four molds (Escape, Judge, Fugitive, Trespass) in December 2012. At that point, their previously sponsored players, including McBeth, Pierce, Ulibarri, Locastro, and others, left DD and the only players DD retained were ones who would be switching to their products (along with Lat64 and Westside) such as Eric McCabe.

So while they may have been in the preparation stages of launching their disc line, McBeth was never sponsored by them at a point where they were actually producing and selling their discs.
Not true.

There was at least a 9 month overlap from when DD began production of discs before McBeth signed his four year Innova deal in September of 2013.
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  #70  
Old 07-12-2019, 11:05 AM
JC17393 JC17393 is offline
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Not true.

There was at least a 9 month overlap from when DD began production of discs before McBeth signed his four year Innova deal in September of 2013.
But McBeth wasn't with DD after December 2012. When he signed an extension with Innova is irrelevant because he was with Innova from the time he was a junior player, way before he turned pro and all the while he was sponsored by DD. He was with DD for apparel, as were other manufacturer sponsored players such as Pierce (Discraft), McCabe (Discraft), Ulibarri (Innova), and Locastro (Gateway). Once DD started manufacturing (start of 2013), all of those players (except McCabe) left DD's team.
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