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View Poll Results: Which of these best describes Hole 18 at the Utah Open?
A par 2 where 38% of throws are errors, and 1% of throws are hero throws. 6 25.00%
A par 3 where 24% of throws are errors, and 33% of throws are hero throws. 16 66.67%
A par 4 where 16% of throws are hero throws, and 23% are double heroes. 1 4.17%
A par 5 where 37% of throws are hero throws, and 21% are double heroes. 0 0%
A par 6 where 16% of throws are hero throws, and 62% are double heroes. 1 4.17%
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  #3881  
Old 07-13-2019, 01:05 PM
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Jukeshoe Jukeshoe is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve West View Post

It would be extremely difficult to pin down which particular throws are errorless. However, I think it is a lot easier to identify the score the player expects with errorless play.

When players come back after a round and say “I left four throws out there today”, that means errorless play would have been four throws better. They might think it was the four putts they missed on those holes, but it might actually have been the result of bad upshots, or being a tiny bit off on three throws in a row, or any combination of full or partial errors.

They might not identify which throws had errors, but they know the score they should have gotten on those holes.

Fortunately, there is no need to look at or define anything at a more detailed level than the score.
I definitely understand what you mean; however, isn't this a circular argument?

If errorless play is defined by expected score, then how do you know what score to expect if you can't define errorless play?

Also, I think what score players expect coming off a round isn't infallible truth. Saying "I left 4 shots out there" is a matter of opinion. Perhaps someone is super arrogant and non-introspective and claims he left 4 shots out there when really he played worse than he thought and left 6.

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  #3882  
Old 07-13-2019, 01:39 PM
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Perhaps it's more of a dismissive argument than circular.

We don't expect experts to make errors, or at least not one per hole. The expected score already assumes errorless throws.
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  #3883  
Old 07-13-2019, 01:46 PM
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Cgkdisc Cgkdisc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
Perhaps it's more of a dismissive argument than circular.

We don't expect experts to make errors, or at least not one per hole. The expected score already assumes errorless throws.
Is an OB penalty a 1-stroke error even if on some holes you can still "par" the hole? Is an OB penalty that also includes a re-throw the equivalent of 2 errors?
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  #3884  
Old 07-13-2019, 02:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cgkdisc View Post
Is an OB penalty a 1-stroke error even if on some holes you can still "par" the hole? Is an OB penalty that also includes a re-throw the equivalent of 2 errors?
Is O.B. such that you expect the expert to go OB?

If not, in the first case, are you expecting a birdie (without the OB)? Or does it change the error if a great save shot can be made?
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  #3885  
Old 07-13-2019, 02:53 PM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jukeshoe View Post
I definitely understand what you mean; however, isn't this a circular argument?

If errorless play is defined by expected score, then how do you know what score to expect if you can't define errorless play?

Also, I think what score players expect coming off a round isn't infallible truth. Saying "I left 4 shots out there" is a matter of opinion. Perhaps someone is super arrogant and non-introspective and claims he left 4 shots out there when really he played worse than he thought and left 6.

Etc.
Not quite circular. Maybe recursive with convergence at the second iteration.

As others point out, errors should be infrequent. (Instead of "errors" we could that say an accumulation of minor flaws which result in a higher score should be infrequent, and that big mistakes which cause an increase in score should be infrequent.)

Yep, not infallible. More likely he left 6 throws out there and didn't recognize the two throws that luck gave him. The point is that the expected errorless score is a lot more recognizable than identifying whether each throw was errorless or not.

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  #3886  
Old 07-13-2019, 03:05 PM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cgkdisc View Post
Is an OB penalty a 1-stroke error even if on some holes you can still "par" the hole? Is an OB penalty that also includes a re-throw the equivalent of 2 errors?
You can still par a hole with good par after an OB penalty. It takes an unusually high level of play, like one would normally use to get a birdie.

For OB with re-throw; in the context of par talk, I would put it this way: Will an OB penalty that also includes a re-throw result in a score that is two higher than the expected score with errorless play?

Yes, sometimes. The question is whether we can identify the score they would have gotten if they had not thrown OB and been forced to re-throw. Often, that will be two throws lower than the score they got. Not always, as sometimes they'll play birdie-level skill to recover a throw. Other times the re-throw might not cost as much as a full throw.
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  #3887  
Old 07-13-2019, 03:49 PM
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My point regarding holes with OB and OB with re-throw being significantly increased on tour has blurred the line on determining errors and whether some of those errors correlate with skill level or skew toward random distribution.
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  #3888  
Old 07-14-2019, 03:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cgkdisc View Post
My point regarding holes with OB and OB with re-throw being significantly increased on tour has blurred the line on determining errors and whether some of those errors correlate with skill level or skew toward random distribution.
OK, but as long as most of the 1000-rated players can avoid the OB, you could have four-throw penalties and still not hide par. Unless you use average score to set par, but as everyone knows by know, par is not average.
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  #3889  
Old 07-14-2019, 03:17 PM
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BC Open 2019 Raptors Knoll Disc Golf Course Gold; 8102 Feet

Par is good for Intermediate players.

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  #3890  
Old 07-14-2019, 04:43 PM
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Steve, I looked at the PDGA report of BC Open MPO scores and a 1000 rating was given to 60 (r2=1001, r2=999, r3=997).

RPS (Rating Points per Throw) values are r1=7.8, r2=7.9, r3=7.9.

If your analysis is that a 64 should be 900 rated, then the RPS for a 1000 rated round would be roughly 300% of the PDGA value.

Your methodology may be a little too aggressive.
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