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Old 10-24-2020, 07:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeK View Post
Only 65 Covid 19 deaths in Sweden in the last 30 days.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ths-in-sweden/
And? We just skipping over all the time before that?

I really fail to see people's point about Sweden. Admittedly, I have not been following closely. But looking at the overall numbers they don't seem like they are doing great.

Sounds like it played out exactly as you would think. They never locked down and are more lax with their laws and regulations. So their economy took less of a hit and they have more dead people.

Why is that enviable again?
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  #3012  
Old 10-24-2020, 08:25 AM
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I believe their point in citing Sweden is their belief that we could have avoided the mitigation measures we've taken --- and the economic and social disruptions caused by those measures --- and suffered no or minimal consequences from doing so.

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Old 10-24-2020, 08:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeK View Post
Only 65 Covid 19 deaths in Sweden in the last 30 days.



https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ths-in-sweden/
What do you think is going on? Virus has mutated to a much mess lethal form? Or the case counts in March/April/May were of magnitude times higher than they are now? More experience treating the disease? Combination of all three?
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  #3014  
Old 10-24-2020, 08:58 AM
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Latitude 64
Salmon
Vodka
Ice hotel
Blonde girls
No lockdowns
Abba Museum
Meatballs

You guys have fun here arguing over the pandemic. You know where I’ll be.

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Old 10-24-2020, 10:15 AM
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If you want to dispute this make sure to read it all first.
They make three (3) points to prove the number is not inflated.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...-are-inflated/

Debunking the False Claim That COVID Death Counts Are Inflated

.....

Now some facts: Researchers know beyond a doubt that the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have surpassed 200,000. These numbers are supported by three lines of evidence, including death certificates. The inaccurate idea that only 6 percent of the deaths were really caused by the coronavirus is “a gross misinterpretation” of how death certificates work, says Robert Anderson, lead mortality statistician at the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics.

....

The 6 percent number ..... comes from a weekly CDC report stating that in 6 percent of the coronavirus mortality cases it counted, COVID-19 was the only condition listed on the death certificate. That observation likely means that those death certificates were incomplete because the certifiers only gave the underlying cause of death and not the full causal sequence that led to it, Anderson says. Even someone who does not have a preexisting condition and dies from COVID-19 will also have comorbidities in the form of symptoms, such as respiratory failure, caused by the coronavirus. The idea that a death certificate with ailments listed in addition to COVID-19 means that the person did not really die from the virus is simply false, Anderson says.
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Old 10-24-2020, 10:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txmxer View Post
Good points.

On China and data—I’m suspicious of much of the data at this point.

The US may be over reporting, but I think it’s likely that MANY are under reporting due to politics.
As much as you will hear the opposite (he died in a car crash but they put covid! - nonsense), the US is decently under-reporting. The best ballpark way to figure out if your numbers are correct is to check expected v actual deaths. Normally we have a decent idea how many people we expect through various weeks. We're way way over right now, which is a double whammy because normal deaths should be down with people not leaving the house and dying in car accidents

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm
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Old 10-24-2020, 11:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roggenb3 View Post
And? We just skipping over all the time before that?

I really fail to see people's point about Sweden. Admittedly, I have not been following closely. But looking at the overall numbers they don't seem like they are doing great.

Sounds like it played out exactly as you would think. They never locked down and are more lax with their laws and regulations. So their economy took less of a hit and they have more dead people.

Why is that enviable again?
Magic line must go up

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Old 10-25-2020, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roggenb3 View Post
And? We just skipping over all the time before that?

I really fail to see people's point about Sweden. Admittedly, I have not been following closely. But looking at the overall numbers they don't seem like they are doing great.

Sounds like it played out exactly as you would think. They never locked down and are more lax with their laws and regulations. So their economy took less of a hit and they have more dead people.

Why is that enviable again?
It's not enviable. Germany and their contact tracing are enviable. Asian nations that stamped it out are enviable.

It's more of a reality thing. Sweden has done as well the US, Spain, France, UK, and a lot of other countries that used severe lockdowns. If you're not going to do a good job, why not do the bad job that's least disruptive to the economy and people's lives?

As as aside, I'm curious what people think we're actually doing different than Sweden right now, aside from unenforced mask mandates? I live in a state that is supposedly in the top 10 as far as coronavirus restrictions. Honestly when I look around, most people seem to be operating like it's pre-pandemic. I see people wearing masks but restaurants are open, bars are open. I hear more and more about people getting together with family and friends. Ironically enough the only thing that doesn't seem open is most schools. I don't even quite understand why we're having the discussion any more, in a lot of respects Sweden seems to be doing more than us.

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Old 10-25-2020, 12:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texasissouth View Post
As much as you will hear the opposite (he died in a car crash but they put covid! - nonsense), the US is decently under-reporting. The best ballpark way to figure out if your numbers are correct is to check expected v actual deaths. Normally we have a decent idea how many people we expect through various weeks. We're way way over right now, which is a double whammy because normal deaths should be down with people not leaving the house and dying in car accidents

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm
I agree with this in general. My statement about "over reporting" is because there will be cases such as the car accident or other things that people choose to latch on to. Then there is the very basic fact that collecting data like this will have some error in the count. It's impossible not to. It may be statistically insignificant, but who wants to hammer through minutia of how statistics works every time the subject comes up?

Even IF the error where 10% over reported, the death toll is ~210k instead of ~230k today, that's hardly relevant to what is happening. And the other side is it could be under reported.

The folks that argue the stats are significantly wrong won't be changing their mind.

My main point in that post is I find it difficult to believe China reporting only 28 new cases and zero deaths yesterday. Same for reporting in a lot of other countries that seems suspect.
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  #3020  
Old 10-25-2020, 12:54 PM
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Based on NVSS data, excess deaths have occurred every week in the United States since March 2020. An estimated 299,028 more persons than expected have died since January 26, 2020; approximately two thirds of these deaths were attributed to COVID-19.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...o%20COVID%2D19.
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