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Old 08-14-2019, 03:03 PM
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SonicGuy SonicGuy is offline
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Default Conservative vs. Risky Play

Imagine you have a hole where you average a par 70% of the time, birdie 14%, and bogie 16%. If you lay up you get par 99% of the time, as in every time bar a fluke disaster. Do you go for it or lay up?

I personally cannot help but go for it, and looking at my stats it seems foolish. My rationale is that I won't get better at the birdie line if I lay up. Also, in a competitive situation, I figure I would need to play above my average ability for a couple rounds to win anyways, so laying up is foolish. But in reality, I get frustrated on the 70% of pars for missing the birdie, and on the bogies it is absolutely dejecting.

So what is your philosophy?
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Old 08-14-2019, 03:09 PM
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R-Ogre R-Ogre is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonicGuy View Post
Imagine you have a hole where you average a par 70% of the time, birdie 14%, and bogie 16%. If you lay up you get par 99% of the time, as in every time bar a fluke disaster. Do you go for it or lay up?

I personally cannot help but go for it, and looking at my stats it seems foolish. My rationale is that I won't get better at the birdie line if I lay up. Also, in a competitive situation, I figure I would need to play above my average ability for a couple rounds to win anyways, so laying up is foolish. But in reality, I get frustrated on the 70% of pars for missing the birdie, and on the bogies it is absolutely dejecting.

So what is your philosophy?
Play dubs and then you can run it half the time and lay up half the time.


Serious answer, just depends how I’m feeling. I play purely for fun, and the purpose of getting better is solely so that playing is more fun, so if I’m in a “run everything” mood I’ll run it, if I don’t feel like three-putting I’ll lay up and the stats will be what they will be. Especially if the bogey involves walking back down a steep wooded fairway like my local course.

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Old 08-14-2019, 03:17 PM
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Hampstead Hampstead is offline
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Sounds like my nemesis hole. Only way I can even get a look at a 2 is if I take a low percentage line that travels OB 75% of the flight. If it stays OB, a 5 is very possible. If I Sexton the hole, I probably par it 9 times out of 10. Casual play, I go the risky line because it's a fun challenge. In any tournament round, it's par city every time.

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Old 08-14-2019, 03:29 PM
perklc perklc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonicGuy View Post
Imagine you have a hole where you average a par 70% of the time, birdie 14%, and bogie 16%. If you lay up you get par 99% of the time, as in every time bar a fluke disaster. Do you go for it or lay up?

I personally cannot help but go for it, and looking at my stats it seems foolish. My rationale is that I won't get better at the birdie line if I lay up. Also, in a competitive situation, I figure I would need to play above my average ability for a couple rounds to win anyways, so laying up is foolish. But in reality, I get frustrated on the 70% of pars for missing the birdie, and on the bogies it is absolutely dejecting.

So what is your philosophy?
From an EV standpoint, they are nearly identical. Back of the napkin math tells me you're only dropping .02 strokes by going for it (assuming in your fluke layup play you split a fluke bogey/birdie equally). So I guess, keep going for it so that you can improve that birdie percentage, and when you bogey, just try to tell yourself that long-term, your play isn't any worse than just laying up.
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Old 08-14-2019, 03:29 PM
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ThomasOrion ThomasOrion is offline
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Totally read this as 'Conservative VS Ricky Play' - in which Ricky plays like a madman

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Old 08-14-2019, 03:32 PM
bwgort bwgort is offline
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I typically watch Matt Orum's Saban says video for motivation here. Usually I play safe but sometimes you gotta make that Kiffin call.

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Old 08-14-2019, 04:34 PM
JC17393 JC17393 is offline
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If we're talking about running the putt, wouldn't that entirely depend on how far out you are rather than a particular percentage play? I'm not running it from 100 feet out even if there's no real danger near the basket. My birdie/par/bogey percentages never really cross my mind.

If we're talking how I approach the tee shot, then I tend toward the safe play more often than not. There are a couple holes on my home course where I play a mid to the center of the fairway and basically remove all chance of a two. I can reach the green if I want, or certainly get myself closer, but the closer I get, the more potential trouble I introduce (OB on one hole, bad angle/treed approach on another). Playing safe removes or dramatically lowers my chances of birdie, but also dramatically lowers my chances of taking a bogey or worse.

The only time I get aggressive on those holes is in doubles if my partner is already safe in the fairway, or if it's late in a competitive round and I need to make up ground. Though in the latter case, neither hole really come into play at that stage of a round very often.
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Old 08-14-2019, 04:49 PM
biscoe biscoe is offline
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playing for money it depends on the situation. playing for fun go for it.

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Old 08-14-2019, 07:33 PM
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DiscJunkie DiscJunkie is offline
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For me, it's all about percentages and course management.
If I go for it every time, I'm going to Bogey part of the time, Par it some and Birdie it some - what are those numbers for me?
Given my skill level, I will run that calculation in my head every time, considering the conditions/my play that day/who I'm playing with, etc.
In the end, I am not very good, so I'll usually settle for the Par

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Old 08-14-2019, 09:17 PM
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If my doubles partner is an anchor...you better believe I'm running everything.

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