#2091  
Old 08-09-2020, 06:40 AM
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What apocalypse, other than a complete meltdown of the medical system, hasn't happened?

Hospitals haven't closed, but in places they have shipped patients hundreds of miles away to make room, or halted elective surgeries and other necessary treatments, due to the overload.

It's been pretty apocalyptic to 160,000 people. Probably to the 20 people closest to each deceased person, which would be another 3 million. Not quite apocalyptic, but pretty bad for however many have suffered horrific hospitalizations and survived, and for those with long-term health damage.

One limitation of the projections is that it's hard to calculate human behavior. How many will wear masks, even without a government mandate? How many will attend superspreader events? How many will shut themselves down voluntarily; how many won't, even if required?
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  #2092  
Old 08-09-2020, 06:46 AM
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Originally Posted by DG_player View Post
It's worth putting it into perspective though. 100,000 people die per year from hospital acquired infections. 67,000 people die from drug overdoses. Those are just raw counts, consider age: Average drug overdose age is 45, average covid death 78. So you have 150,000 * 9 years of life lost vs 67,000 * 35 years of life lost. From that perspective Covid will have to kill 150,000 more people to be as devastating as overdoses are every year.
It's worth putting in perspective that those other deaths are annual numbers, whereas the current Covid-19 tally is essentially for four months (it was about 5,000 at the end of March).

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  #2093  
Old 08-09-2020, 07:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Hampstead View Post

Texas had 11,579 excess deaths in the month of July.


(CDC stats)
Being lazy, I'll ask: What was the official C-19 death count for July?
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  #2094  
Old 08-09-2020, 07:53 AM
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looks like about 6K fatalities in the US in just the first TEN DAYS of July. I didn't have the heart to keep doing the math after that

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  #2095  
Old 08-09-2020, 08:09 AM
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I may not have been clear, but I was asking about the death count for Texas for July.

It had been true, and I presume it still is, that the number of actual deaths exceeds what can be explained by the "official" numbers---with the simplest explanation being, more people are dying of Covid-19 than are being reported. I haven't looked up the actual (overall death count) numbers in a while, but presume the trend continues.

It's useful to know, every time one of the Dismissers gleefully posts an account of someone who died of a gunshot/motorcycle wreck/whatever, being classified as having died "with covid-19", and implying that the official numbers are inflated. They're almost certainly understated.

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Old 08-09-2020, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
I may not have been clear, but I was asking about the death count for Texas for July.

It had been true, and I presume it still is, that the number of actual deaths exceeds what can be explained by the "official" numbers---with the simplest explanation being, more people are dying of Covid-19 than are being reported. I haven't looked up the actual (overall death count) numbers in a while, but presume the trend continues.

It's useful to know, every time one of the Dismissers gleefully posts an account of someone who died of a gunshot/motorcycle wreck/whatever, being classified as having died "with covid-19", and implying that the official numbers are inflated. They're almost certainly understated.
And let’s not forget...


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Old 08-09-2020, 10:46 AM
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Yeah I noticed Worldometer is 500 higher than the CDC count..

I guess the "apocalypse" hasn't entirely come yet, but wait.. We are barely a month past July holidays.. Parties around which are being blamed for us going from 10 cases a day to 40. To be fair though I will concede the point of news sensationalism, declaring an apocalypse every week gets people to read it. What you may think the line is between "real bad" and "apocalypse" is a personal choice. Sweden has a very high death rate per million so I wouldn't exactly say their 5700+? deaths means they are doing well, compared to 150,000 it may look like they did alright though.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...urge-1.5679225

There's concern we have lost our advantage over CoVid here.. Lots of young people infected right now 2/3 of new cases are under 40 crowd.

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  #2098  
Old 08-09-2020, 10:47 AM
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Originally Posted by McCready View Post
And let’s not forget...
Hmm. I'm not sure whether there is a causal connection there. The COVID Tracking Project gets its data directly from state health departments. Their graph of daily cases matches the CDC's graph quite closely.

Data FAQ: The COVID Tracking Project (clicky)
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File Type: png CDC cases per day.png (63.5 KB, 11 views)
File Type: png COVID project cases per day.png (67.1 KB, 11 views)
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  #2099  
Old 08-09-2020, 10:57 AM
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I wish we could know the sources for all these graphs that show up as memes.

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  #2100  
Old 08-09-2020, 11:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monocacy View Post
Hmm. I'm not sure whether there is a causal connection there. The COVID Tracking Project gets its data directly from state health departments. Their graph of daily cases matches the CDC's graph quite closely.

Data FAQ: The COVID Tracking Project (clicky)
Yes. Since the HHS took over, the daily death rate has increased by about 50%.

Just picking out the case rate is misleading. It may have actually plateaued.

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