#151  
Old 09-20-2019, 05:18 PM
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davetherocketguy davetherocketguy is offline
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Originally Posted by DiscFifty View Post
I 100% understand this, but my question is geared toward this...

1) A division of 1000 rated players plays one day.
2) A division of 800 rated players plays on a different day.

I am willing to bet ratings for same scores will be different.
Well yeah, of course a 54 on day one will have a different rating than a 54 on day two regardless of what division plays.

At least that's my understanding of how the mysterious PDGA black ratings box works...
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  #152  
Old 09-20-2019, 06:28 PM
AHagglund AHagglund is offline
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The odds of an 800-rated field shooting the same scores as a 1000-rated field are astronomical. Like, "never would happen in a billion years" astronomical.

The odds of one 800 rated player shooting the same score as a 1000 rated player (barring injury/sandbagging) are probably something like 1:800,000. The odds of an entire field doing it? That would be a lot of 0s...
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  #153  
Old 09-21-2019, 12:06 AM
LateWesternSky LateWesternSky is offline
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Originally Posted by AHagglund View Post
The odds of one 800 rated player shooting the same score as a 1000 rated player (barring injury/sandbagging) are probably something like 1:800,000.
It's definitely lower odds than that, but your general idea is correct. I've seen quite a few people shoot over 100 above there rating and quite a few shoot 100 below.
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  #154  
Old 09-21-2019, 05:40 AM
AHagglund AHagglund is offline
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Originally Posted by LateWesternSky View Post
It's definitely lower odds than that, but your general idea is correct. I've seen quite a few people shoot over 100 above there rating and quite a few shoot 100 below.
I was using 30 RR points as an estimate for 1 standard deviation which might be a little low (which would, in turn, lower the odds). I'd be curious to have someone crunch the numbers for real.

But think of it this way...what are the odds that Hannah McBeth would play a round with Paul and win? Seems utterly inconceivable. And they're only 140 rating points apart.
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  #155  
Old 09-21-2019, 11:47 AM
LateWesternSky LateWesternSky is offline
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Originally Posted by AHagglund View Post
I was using 30 RR points as an estimate for 1 standard deviation which might be a little low (which would, in turn, lower the odds). I'd be curious to have someone crunch the numbers for real.

But think of it this way...what are the odds that Hannah McBeth would play a round with Paul and win? Seems utterly inconceivable. And they're only 140 rating points apart.
Yeah that's seems very unlikely, but we basically only see Paul play championship level courses. If a 1000 and 800 rated player both play a course where every hole is reachable by the 800 rated player, I could see the odds that they both shoot a 900 as much more probable. It would still be VERY unlikely though.
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  #156  
Old 09-21-2019, 12:14 PM
JC17393 JC17393 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LateWesternSky View Post
Yeah that's seems very unlikely, but we basically only see Paul play championship level courses. If a 1000 and 800 rated player both play a course where every hole is reachable by the 800 rated player, I could see the odds that they both shoot a 900 as much more probable. It would still be VERY unlikely though.
I don't think the odds change much at all on a shorter course because you still expect McBeth to throw 1000+ rated rounds there. Just because the throws count for 11 or 12 points per instead of 7-8 like you see at longer championship courses, doesn't mean it's more likely that he'll throw up a stinker. The guy has two sub-1000 rounds in the last two years and his current rating excludes a 1007 round for being too low for his average.

For he and an 800 rated player to tie for a round, the 800 rated player is probably going to have to play the round of their life (to that point) and get pretty close to 1000 to have a chance. And he's still hoping for McBeth to have an unusually bad round at the same time.
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  #157  
Old 09-21-2019, 01:33 PM
DiscFifty DiscFifty is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davetherocketguy View Post
Well yeah, of course a 54 on day one will have a different rating than a 54 on day two regardless of what division plays.

At least that's my understanding of how the mysterious PDGA black ratings box works...
Yep, but I've been told in the past (on this forum) that this was not how ratings work, that 2 divisions playing the same course days or even weeks apart would have identical score ratings regardless of division. But that just doesn't seem true, if an am division plays the same course as the open division on different days, score/round ratings will be higher for the open division simply because there is higher rated players playing it. And this is the potential flaw in the ratings system imop. Hence my comment about ratings bubbling up for the top elite players, because you are seeing more/higher rated players coming in at the bottom causing the overall ratings pool for the mpo division to be on avg higher. I also think this is helping Paige Pierce's rating (when the fpo division is not rated against mpo) since better fpo players are now in the ratings pool.
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  #158  
Old 09-21-2019, 01:58 PM
cheesethin cheesethin is offline
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Originally Posted by DiscFifty View Post
Yep, but I've been told in the past (on this forum) that this was not how ratings work, that 2 divisions playing the same course days or even weeks apart would have identical score ratings regardless of division....
I don't think that is true.



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  #159  
Old 09-21-2019, 02:22 PM
AHagglund AHagglund is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscFifty View Post
if an am division plays the same course as the open division on different days, score/round ratings will be higher for the open division simply because there is higher rated players playing it. And this is the potential flaw in the ratings system imop.
I see where the logic is coming from here. It is true that in a weird, hypothetical case where a field of rec players score identical to a field of pros on the same course, the pros would be rated higher for the same score. In reality though, this scenario will never, ever happen. A field of recreational players will play at or near rec level and a field of pro players will play at or near pro level almost every time.

There are times where a field will collectively play marginally worse or better than normal, and that will indeed inflate/depress ratings a little bit, but that effect is small and would be considered routine "variance" that can go both ways. (For example, using the 1000/800 example, if the 1000 rated field overperformed and the 800 rated underperformed, it would be the 800 rated field that would get a ratings inflation.
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  #160  
Old 09-21-2019, 02:44 PM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JC17393 View Post
I don't think the odds change much at all on a shorter course because you still expect McBeth to throw 1000+ rated rounds there. Just because the throws count for 11 or 12 points per instead of 7-8 like you see at longer championship courses, doesn't mean it's more likely that he'll throw up a stinker. The guy has two sub-1000 rounds in the last two years and his current rating excludes a 1007 round for being too low for his average.

For he and an 800 rated player to tie for a round, the 800 rated player is probably going to have to play the round of their life (to that point) and get pretty close to 1000 to have a chance. And he's still hoping for McBeth to have an unusually bad round at the same time.
Very short courses are a problem for ratings, because of the "2" wall. A course can be so short that both an 800 rated and 1000 rated player could expect a 2 on every hole, yet not short enough that a 1000 rated player could expect any aces. If that were to happen, there would be no information about who was the better player. The ratings would have nothing to work with.

That's the reason courses which produce scores lower than 41 for the best player are really bad for sanctioned play.
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