#881  
Old 05-05-2020, 05:48 AM
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Originally Posted by ru4por View Post
That sux, Bogey. I can only imagine the fright and worry a parent goes through. I hope all is well.

I am staggered by the nearly 100% asymptomtic patients at the nursing home I am working at. My unit of nearly 50 patients is 100% positive and I have only seen 1 symptomatic case. These are patients nearly all over 90 y/o and significant co mobidities. I hope that means that many, many more people than we think have had it and recovered. But, only testing will tell.

Hope your daughter and friends stay healthy.
Wonder how many % wise if when these patients pass away or have in some other cases you're not involved with-- are being listed as covid related deaths.
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  #882  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:03 AM
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Genetically modified in a lab (Wuhan Institute of Virology) to be more pathogenic and accidentally released?

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  #883  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Nick Pacific View Post
Genetically modified in a lab (Wuhan Institute of Virology) to be more pathogenic and accidentally released?
Couldn't make it through the whole video. Is there a summary of why this gentleman thinks SARS-CoV-2 was genetically modified rather than naturally evolved?

Everything I have read points to a natural source rather than genetic modification for SARS-CoV-2, but I am open to being shown the error of my ways.

Whether SARS-CoV-2 jumped to humans naturally or was accidentally released from one of the Wuhan laboratories remains an open question; unfortunately we may not get a definitive answer to that.
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  #884  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Monocacy View Post
Couldn't make it through the whole video. Is there a summary of why this gentleman thinks SARS-CoV-2 was genetically modified rather than naturally evolved?
"Digging into the biochemistry of viruses, we are struck in particular by a genetic string of RNA in covid-19 -- specifically the polybasic furin cleavage site PRRA -- that has all the appearance of an "insert" (i.e., something that does NOT look like a natural mutation)"

I highly suggest you watch the whole video, he breaks this down into a step by step process.
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  #885  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Steve West View Post
Fortunately, neither epidemics nor lily pads actually grow exponentially. The growth becomes less exponential as the amount of open water remaining shrinks and as old lily pads die in place so no new pads can grow where they were.
Epidemics most certainly can grow exponentially until the pathogen runs out of nutrients. As teemkey pointed out, for SARS-Cov-2, we are the nutrients. Just look at the numbers before controls were put in place. In the U.S. cases were doubling every 3 or 4 days.

Doubling = exponential growth.

But if I understand your point, you are referring to later stages of a pandemic when herd immunity starts to limit viral spread. True, as a pathogen runs out of susceptible hosts (us) its growth rate necessarily slows. This is well understood by epidemiologists.

Keep in mind that absent a vaccine or effective treatment, an extraordinary number of people will die before we reach herd immunity.

Best estimates I have seen for COVID-19 infection fatality rate are in the 0.60% to 0.75% range. No one knows for sure, but those are the best estimates we have at present.

If half the U.S. population is infected (most models say 70% for herd immunity, but let's be optimistic):

330,000,000 = U.S. population
50% infection rate
0.60% infection fatality rate = 990,000 deaths
0.75% infection fatality rate = 1.2 million deaths

Those who advocate for a controlled slog to herd immunity are writing off an awfully large number of Americans.

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  #886  
Old 05-05-2020, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by BogeyNoMore View Post
My daughter rents a home in DC, with three women in their 20s. They've been working from home since mid March.

They have a deal with a visiting college professor, where he pays them $200 a month to stay in a 5th bedroom/den for about 5-6 days every month. Turns out he had at Covid late Feb/early March. He's hasn't been there since mid March so the girls have been pretty well isolated for over a month, but he just informed them today that he had Covid.

You'd think someone with the title "Professor" should recognize their social obligation to inform everybody they've been in close proximity with, the day you found out you actually have it, if not earlier once significant symptoms are obvious.... not six weeks later.

SMFH

The important thing is that all four girls feel fine, and no one's exhibiting any symptoms. If any of them got infected, you'd think at least one of them would have developed symptoms in 6 weeks time.
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Originally Posted by ru4por View Post
That sux, Bogey. I can only imagine the fright and worry a parent goes through. I hope all is well.

I am staggered by the nearly 100% asymptomtic patients at the nursing home I am working at. My unit of nearly 50 patients is 100% positive and I have only seen 1 symptomatic case. These are patients nearly all over 90 y/o and significant co mobidities. I hope that means that many, many more people than we think have had it and recovered. But, only testing will tell.

Hope your daughter and friends stay healthy.
This is very interesting. I've been working at a nursing home just outside DC most of this year. So far they have only had 11 covid 19 cases confirmed, no deaths, with 1000+ residents. I got sick last weekend of January into early Feb thought it was the weirdest cold I've ever had with low grade fever. Several people I know co-workers/friends had something around same time but no fever, some had lingering cough.

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  #887  
Old 05-05-2020, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by sidewinder22 View Post
This is very interesting. I've been working at a nursing home just outside DC most of this year. So far they have only had 11 covid 19 cases confirmed, no deaths, with 1000+ residents. I got sick last weekend of January into early Feb thought it was the weirdest cold I've ever had with low grade fever. Several people I know co-workers/friends had something around same time but no fever, some had lingering cough.
My niece is a nurse and believes she had it in Feb also. I'm hearing/reading more of these stories all the time.

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  #888  
Old 05-05-2020, 11:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sidewinder22 View Post
This is very interesting. I've been working at a nursing home just outside DC most of this year. So far they have only had 11 covid 19 cases confirmed, no deaths, with 1000+ residents. I got sick last weekend of January into early Feb thought it was the weirdest cold I've ever had with low grade fever. Several people I know co-workers/friends had something around same time but no fever, some had lingering cough.
"Hopefully" ... you got it, went through it, and now have immunity through antibodies.


It's not hard to see how many healthcare workers are almost destined to get it, given how virulent and contagious it seems to be. Not getting it basically means all your precautions are 100% percent effective, 100% of the time.

I realize they're professionals in the following protocols, but I'm not sure how often that happens in the human condition.

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Last edited by BogeyNoMore; 05-05-2020 at 11:28 AM.
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  #889  
Old 05-05-2020, 11:54 AM
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Going back to the original topic, interesting thread with a lot of examples of tracing covid transmission chains.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...010215947.html
Seems to be exclusively indoor, prolonged proximity. Question is, is that just because those type of contacts are the ones that are easy to trace? You’d never be able to track down if the stranger passing you on the sidewalk got infected. Then again since some of those cases were in places like Singapore that use the phone based tracking apps, maybe they would be able to track those contacts. It does seem to indicate that outdoor activities solo, or in safely spaced groups, are very low risk. Ultimate or football maybe not so much, but disc golf seems ideal as a safe activity even in a card of 4 if people are thoughtful.
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  #890  
Old 05-05-2020, 12:19 PM
Dan Cooper Dan Cooper is offline
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To answer the question in the OP, the answer is that we are taking it too seriously. Unless you are elderly or have a compromising health issue, you will be ok.
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