#931  
Old 05-06-2020, 01:36 AM
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Originally Posted by BogeyNoMore View Post
I think part of the problem in the US is the vehemence with which many Americans value our freedoms, and feel we're entitled to them "no matter what," regardless of who or how many get harmed (e.g. assault rifles).

There's a certain, "I have a constitutional right to ______, and I'll be damned if anyone's gonna tell me I can't," ...and many of those folks seem to be acknowledging the reality of the pandemic as depicted here:
I think it is just bad parenting or poor intellectual genetics. Maybe we should start testing for this?
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  #932  
Old 05-06-2020, 01:39 AM
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Originally Posted by ru4por View Post
Sorry Aim...I wasn't calling you a dismisser. Just that I have heard this presented by many that are.
I dont know what i am these days! Hardly want to even vote lol. Wish there was a answer but just want those who i know at least can feel somewhat supported.

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  #933  
Old 05-06-2020, 06:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BogeyNoMore View Post
I think part of the problem in the US is the vehemence with which many Americans value our freedoms, and feel we're entitled to them "no matter what," regardless of who or how many get harmed (e.g. assault rifles).

There's a certain, "I have a constitutional right to ______, and I'll be damned if anyone's gonna tell me I can't," ...and many of those folks seem to be acknowledging the reality of the pandemic as depicted here:
Individual liberty is both a blessing and a curse. In my opinion, much more of the former, and in most cases I'll accept the drawbacks for the benefits. This is not one of those cases.

But our problem seems much more than that. Knowing the danger, and confronting it, is courage. Refusing to know it doesn't make you brave, it makes you foolhardy.

The strain of anti-expertise in our country has helped put us in the bad spot we're in. That, too, is probably a product of individual liberty---"I can have my own facts."

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  #934  
Old 05-06-2020, 07:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Aim For The Chains View Post
Any idea why they as well as many others have decided to list pneumonia and flu covid deaths separately?
I don't know. In the middle of a pandemic I think they are just trying to do the best they can. The real count will be done after the fact, using excess deaths and mathematical modeling. The CDC influenza page describes some of the methods:
Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?

Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact.
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Originally Posted by Aim For The Chains View Post
If my mom is old and falls breaks a bone and ends up dead (very common) what is her cause of death? Im seriously asking as this doesnt seem to have a clear answer based on any possible underlying conditions.
Cause of death is a judgment call by the physician, unless there is an autopsy in which case it would be the coroner or medical examiner.

This is why the CDC uses a mathematical model after the fact to estimate influenza deaths. Presumably they will do something similar with COVID-19.

How CDC Estimates the Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the U.S. (clicky)
What methods are used to estimate the number of influenza-associated deaths in the U.S.?

The methods to estimate the annual number of influenza-associated deaths have been described in detail elsewhere (1-2). The model uses a ratio of deaths-to-hospitalizations in order to estimate the total influenza-associated deaths from the estimated number of influenza-associated hospitalizations.

We first look at how many in-hospital deaths were observed in FluSurv-NET. The in-hospital deaths are adjusted for under-detection of influenza using methods similar to those described above for hospitalizations using data on the frequency and sensitivity of influenza testing. Second, because not all deaths related to influenza occur in the hospital, we use death certificate data to estimate how likely deaths are to occur outside the hospital. We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death. We use information on the causes of death from FluSurv-NET to determine the mixture of P&I, R&C, and other coded deaths to include in our investigation of death certificate data. Finally, once we estimate the proportion of influenza-associated deaths that occurred outside of the hospital, we can estimate the deaths-to-hospitalization ratio.

Data needed to estimate influenza-associated deaths may lag for up to two years after the season ends. When this is not yet available for the season being estimated, we adjust based on values observed in prior seasons (e.g., the 2010-2011 season through the 2016-2017 season) and update the estimates when more current data become available.
For a visual, the attachment compares confirmed COVID-19 deaths with confirmed flu deaths. This is the best illustration I have seen of why comparing COVID-19 deaths in the middle of a pandemic with mathematically modeled flu deaths is not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Apologies for the long reply, but I hope that helps.
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File Type: png Screen Shot 2020-05-02 at 3.50.13 PM.png (119.7 KB, 21 views)

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  #935  
Old 05-06-2020, 08:17 AM
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Trump is considering dissolving the C19 task force.

<starts googling offshore property for sale>
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  #936  
Old 05-06-2020, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by ohtobediscing View Post
Trump is considering dissolving the C19 task force.

<starts googling offshore property for sale>
according to this series of tweets, it's just transitioning to a new focus: "SAFETY & OPENING UP OUR COUNTRY AGAIN"
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  #937  
Old 05-06-2020, 10:08 AM
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All the politics you want is here. Please keep it there.

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  #938  
Old 05-06-2020, 10:20 AM
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I'm on it Jay Dub! Let's keep things where they belong:
Discs in the fairway, politics in the correct forum, and Covid... Where the hell does it belong?

Since I started taking the discussion in a political direction, I chose to respond to David's post in the Outbreak 2020 thread in the Political forum, in order to allow this thread to stay on topic.

Feel free to not click on that link.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
Individual liberty is both a blessing and a curse. In my opinion, much more of the former, and in most cases I'll accept the drawbacks for the benefits. This is not one of those cases.

But our problem seems much more than that. Knowing the danger, and confronting it, is courage. Refusing to know it doesn't make you brave, it makes you foolhardy.

The strain of anti-expertise in our country has helped put us in the bad spot we're in. That, too, is probably a product of individual liberty---"I can have my own facts."

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Last edited by BogeyNoMore; 05-06-2020 at 10:24 AM.
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  #939  
Old 05-06-2020, 10:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BogeyNoMore View Post
I'm on it Jay Dub! Let's keep things where they belong:
Discs in the fairway, politics in the correct forum, and Covid... Where the hell does it belong?

Since I started taking the discussion in a political direction, I chose to respond to David's post in the Outbreak 2020 thread in the Political forum, in order to allow this thread to stay on topic.

Feel free to not click on that link.
If you click on it be cautious.

Bogey, I'm as guilty as anyone and yeah it's difficult to not bring politics into any thread about COVID-19.
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  #940  
Old 05-06-2020, 10:40 AM
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Heck, I felt bad enough about contributing to the drift into the broader medical issues. Definitely don't want to throw politics in, knowing where the thread will go from there. Though it's tempting. Regardless of what politicians do, there remains the matter of what we (disc golfers) do, and how it affects our little corner of the world.
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