#171  
Old 03-29-2020, 10:23 AM
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Monocacy Monocacy is online now
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Originally Posted by DiscFifty View Post
Is it logical to assume that as more testing is done, the number of cases will rise, but the death percentage rate will go down? (Due to so many people with minimal symptoms, etc.)
Yes, that is a reasonable assumption. Better case fatality rate estimates will probably not be available for a year or two. Typically public health officials use retrospective data and study smaller populations intensively to estimate overall mortality.

And as you said, much more testing will be needed to establish infection rates.

Still, the best estimates I have seen are that Covid-19 is at least 6x to 10x more lethal than influenza, and also appears to spread more easily.

And, as we are seeing, case fatality rates are much higher where medical resources have been overwhelmed.
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  #172  
Old 03-29-2020, 10:25 AM
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And, as we are seeing, case fatality rates are much higher where medical resources have been overwhelmed.
Hence the need to flatten the curve.

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  #173  
Old 03-29-2020, 04:37 PM
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Remember the area under the curves is the same, this is just about evening out the rate of spread to help hospitals out.

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  #174  
Old 03-29-2020, 04:53 PM
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First COVID round where I hooked up with another solo player, as there were groups on the course and the pace was better with 2 folks. Probably putted out a couple too many times tbh. But keeping distance was easy. I'd say definitely a very low risk, but probably pushing what's acceptable. Most other groups were unacceptably close imo. Hate to say this, but the majority of what I saw out there, despite not being anything outlandish or "flu bro"-ish, was grounds enough for suspending the activity for the public.

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  #175  
Old 03-29-2020, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by t.A.T.u View Post
I thought that the China Virus will macigally disappear when the warm kicks in. I have been told so.
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-c...armer-weather/
This Harvard researcher says the warmer weather probably will not significantly impact the spread of a novel virus.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...-kill-covid-19

This BBC article seems to say that it may eventually become seasonal, after it is no longer novel.

I also saw a televised expert say that it spread just as quickly in tropical regions as in colder ones, so the weather will probably not impact it much.

Last edited by jenb; 03-29-2020 at 06:40 PM.
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  #176  
Old 03-29-2020, 06:49 PM
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My pandemic putting percentage is 100.

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  #177  
Old 03-29-2020, 06:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Guurn View Post
Remember the area under the curves is the same, this is just about evening out the rate of spread to help hospitals out.
Completely understood. Helping out overburdened hospitals will save lives.
Last time I checked they mattered.
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  #178  
Old 03-29-2020, 06:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guurn View Post
Remember the area under the curves is the same, this is just about evening out the rate of spread to help hospitals out.
Completely understood. Helping out overburdened hospitals will save lives.
Last time I checked, they mattered.
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  #179  
Old 03-29-2020, 08:29 PM
Orioles_Lefty Orioles_Lefty is offline
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Originally Posted by Hampstead View Post
My pandemic putting percentage is 100.
C1, C1x, what’s the difference really?
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  #180  
Old 03-30-2020, 01:21 AM
t.A.T.u t.A.T.u is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jenb View Post
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-c...armer-weather/
This Harvard researcher says the warmer weather probably will not significantly impact the spread of a novel virus.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...-kill-covid-19

This BBC article seems to say that it may eventually become seasonal, after it is no longer novel.

I also saw a televised expert say that it spread just as quickly in tropical regions as in colder ones, so the weather will probably not impact it much.

Yeah, I know that but The Sultan Of Solarium doesn't know that. Actually there are already 2 types of Convid-19 and you can get them both at the same time.

http://www.ruv.is/frett/two-types-of...one-individual

Last edited by t.A.T.u; 03-30-2020 at 01:26 AM.
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