#211  
Old 05-16-2020, 12:05 PM
MikeK MikeK is offline
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Not that much of a difference.

Sweden’s rates are lower than Italy, Spain and other countries but that’s apparently too convenient to ignore for many of you.
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  #212  
Old 05-16-2020, 12:10 PM
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From another expert.


Health officials have called the concept of herd immunity 'dangerous'

Epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins University have called the concept herd immunity a "dangerous misconception" and said the US remains vulnerable to the virus. The World Health Organization also criticized the idea of herd immunity on Monday.

"This idea that, 'Well, maybe countries who had lax measures and haven't done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?' This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation," Mike Ryan, WHO's executive director of health emergencies, said.

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Old 05-16-2020, 12:17 PM
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And then there's this from the same article.

The architect behind Sweden's coronavirus plan even said he wasn't sure if the relaxed approach is working.

"I'm not convinced at all," Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, told the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet on May 1.

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Old 05-16-2020, 12:27 PM
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You’re making my point for me JayDub, which is that it’s so contagious lockdowns are not as effective as claimed. Didn’t Governor Cuomo claim 2/3’ds of new cases were from people who stayed home? Why yes, he did:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbc...mp/ncna1201421

Gov. Cuomo said "personal behavior" could be an ultimate factor in staying safe from the virus.
"Much of of this comes down to what you do to protect yourself," Cuomo said.

"Everything is closed down. Government has done everything it could. Society has done everything it could. Now it's up to you. Are you wearing a mask? Are you doing the hand sanitizer? If you have younger people who are visiting you and may be out there and may be less diligent with the social distancing. Are you staying away from older people?"

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Old 05-16-2020, 01:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Dub View Post
From the article I linked above.


As of Friday morning, Sweden, which has a population of 10.23 million, had 29,207 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 3,646 deaths from the virus — a death rate of 35.64 deaths per 100,000 people.

The US, meanwhile, has had 1.45 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 86,607 deaths from the virus. With a population of 328.2 million, the country has a death rate of 26.3 deaths per 100,000 people.
Not only that, but it's 7 or 8 times greater than the death rates in Finland and Norway, the two most-similar countries that it happens to be sandwiched between.

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Old 05-16-2020, 07:37 PM
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I’ll concede that the Finland/Norway data makes the case that locking down does make a difference. But will it make a difference in the long run? Can Finland and Norway stay locked down forever?
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Old 05-16-2020, 07:47 PM
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No one has said we or anyone should stay locked down forever.
This is a good time to be a team player, the dismissers won't do that it seems.

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Old 05-16-2020, 08:15 PM
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Quote:
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I’ll concede that the Finland/Norway data makes the case that locking down does make a difference. But will it make a difference in the long run? Can Finland and Norway stay locked down forever?
Good question. All that data says is that, so far, Sweden's decisions have resulted in a lot of deaths. The long run is speculation---about herd immunity and the rest. Should it work, with a lot of early deaths but fewer deaths in the end, Sweden will be praised for ripping off the bandaid. If it doesn't---if Sweden ends up with a lot more deaths than others, or has to go to a belated lockdown because it gets worse---it'll look like a terrible gamble.

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"Locked down forever" isn't the only option. Locked down until a vaccine (likely to be longer than can be endured), or until better treatments are found (which I'd guess is more likely than a vaccine), or into a partial opening to keep the damage manageable (as many states are gambling on) are other options.

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Old 05-16-2020, 08:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
"Locked down forever" isn't the only option. Locked down until a vaccine (likely to be longer than can be endured), or until better treatments are found (which I'd guess is more likely than a vaccine), or into a partial opening to keep the damage manageable (as many states are gambling on) are other options.
Testing, tracing, and isolation is where we should be heading. We need to be able to test asymptomatic people, trace their contacts, and then test those people, etc. until the trail runs out.

That is how other countries have managed to keep things under control.

Right now we are only testing people with symptoms, even though > 50% of infections are spread by asymptomatic people.

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  #220  
Old 05-16-2020, 08:47 PM
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Testing, tracing, and isolation is where we should be heading. We need to be able to test asymptomatic people, trace their contacts, and then test those people, etc. until the trail runs out.

That is how other countries have managed to keep things under control.

Right now we are only testing people with symptoms, even though > 50% of infections are spread by asymptomatic people.
No argument. Except that we need to be doing a lot of things, this included.

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