#1  
Old 09-12-2014, 02:30 AM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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Here are scoring distributions from 20 holes. These were all expert disc golfers playing under ordinary weather conditions. For each hole, which score would be expected with errorless play, allowing two throws from close range?

Code:
Hole   2       3       4       5       6       7       8
 1    5.1%   57.0%   14.0%   23.7%    0.2%    0.0%    0.0%
 2    4.2%   51.8%    2.9%   41.0%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%
 3    0.0%    4.9%   37.5%   25.8%   21.6%    8.2%    2.1%
 4    0.0%   14.2%   28.1%   22.6%   23.8%    8.9%    2.4%
 5   43.8%   51.1%    4.2%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
 6   63.7%    5.2%   29.0%    1.6%    0.5%    0.1%    0.0%
 7    0.0%   59.9%   21.2%   18.9%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
 8    0.0%    0.5%   52.1%   22.2%   20.1%    5.1%    0.0%
 9    0.0%    6.3%   37.5%   28.0%   14.6%    8.3%    5.3%
10    0.0%    0.1%   40.5%   32.4%   14.5%    6.5%    6.1%
11   75.5%    7.3%   15.1%    0.8%    0.8%    0.0%    0.4%
12    0.0%    9.2%   32.1%   24.7%   21.0%   10.1%    2.9%
13   44.5%   48.8%    6.7%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
14   43.8%   48.8%    7.4%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
15    0.4%   44.9%   44.9%    8.1%    1.5%    0.2%    0.0%
16    8.1%   40.9%   32.7%   11.6%    6.7%    0.0%    0.0%
17   44.7%   52.9%    2.4%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
18    2.3%   40.3%   15.8%   41.5%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
19   37.7%   20.7%   40.8%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
20   67.1%    6.9%   23.9%    1.2%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%
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  #2  
Old 09-12-2014, 03:38 AM
CStout CStout is offline
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Where do I vote?
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Old 09-12-2014, 08:43 AM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CStout View Post
Where do I vote?
OK, not really a poll, just reply with your choices.
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Old 09-12-2014, 08:56 AM
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DavidSauls DavidSauls is offline
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Do I get to define "close range"?
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Old 09-12-2014, 08:58 AM
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This thread makes my brain hurt.
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Old 09-12-2014, 09:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve West View Post
Here are scoring distributions from 20 holes. These were all expert disc golfers playing under ordinary weather conditions. For each hole, which score would be expected with errorless play, allowing two throws from close range?

Code:
Hole   2       3       4       5       6       7       8
 1    5.1%   57.0%   14.0%   23.7%    0.2%    0.0%    0.0%
 2    4.2%   51.8%    2.9%   41.0%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%
 3    0.0%    4.9%   37.5%   25.8%   21.6%    8.2%    2.1%
 4    0.0%   14.2%   28.1%   22.6%   23.8%    8.9%    2.4%
 5   43.8%   51.1%    4.2%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
 6   63.7%    5.2%   29.0%    1.6%    0.5%    0.1%    0.0%
 7    0.0%   59.9%   21.2%   18.9%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
 8    0.0%    0.5%   52.1%   22.2%   20.1%    5.1%    0.0%
 9    0.0%    6.3%   37.5%   28.0%   14.6%    8.3%    5.3%
10    0.0%    0.1%   40.5%   32.4%   14.5%    6.5%    6.1%
11   75.5%    7.3%   15.1%    0.8%    0.8%    0.0%    0.4%
12    0.0%    9.2%   32.1%   24.7%   21.0%   10.1%    2.9%
13   44.5%   48.8%    6.7%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
14   43.8%   48.8%    7.4%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
15    0.4%   44.9%   44.9%    8.1%    1.5%    0.2%    0.0%
16    8.1%   40.9%   32.7%   11.6%    6.7%    0.0%    0.0%
17   44.7%   52.9%    2.4%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
18    2.3%   40.3%   15.8%   41.5%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
19   37.7%   20.7%   40.8%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
20   67.1%    6.9%   23.9%    1.2%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%
1. Strange hole. 1-shot hole with extremely precarious pin position? Or LOTS of non-re-tee OB near the hole?
2. Strange hole. 1-shot hole with extremely precarious pin position? Or LOTS of non-re-tee OB near the hole?
3. 3-shot hole (par 5) with some deep woods and/or OB.
4. Ick. Too much luck involved.
5. 1-shot hole (par 3).
6. Fairly easy 1-shot but with re-tee OB.
7. 2-shot hole (par 4) with some trouble impacting wayward shots.
8. 3-shot hole (par 5) with some trouble.
9. 3-shot hole (par 5) with a hero route and trouble for failure.
10. 3-shot hole (par 5) with some trouble.
11. Too easy of a 1-shot hole with OB for bad shots.

this is too long

12. Another 3-shot hole (par 5) with a hero route and trouble for failure.
13. Standard 1-shot hole (par 3).
14. Standard 1-shot hole (par 3).
15. Fairly standard 2-shot hole (par 4) with a little trouble.
16. Short 2-shot hole (par 4) with a risk/reward shot at eagle available.
17. Standard 1-shot hole (par 3).
18. Hmmm, weird hole. Similar to holes 1 and 2.
19. A little odd, but probably a 2-shot hole that's long? Or maybe a too-easy 3-shot hole with some trouble? Weird.
20. Similar to 11.
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Old 09-12-2014, 02:55 PM
Steve West Steve West is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidSauls View Post
Do I get to define "close range"?
There is no greater authority to overrule you.

grodney, I wasn't asking what par would be assigned to the holes. I was asking which score an expert player would expect. Are all of your answers the score an expert would say he or she expects if all goes as planned?
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Old 09-12-2014, 03:10 PM
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BogeyNoMore BogeyNoMore is online now
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Since most experts should only need one shot from close range ( i.e. putts), the way I see this would be to start with the most common score for each hole, then add 1 for a 2nd shot from close range, which yields the following:

Hole
1… 4
2…4
3…5
4…5
5…4
6…3
7…4
8…5
9…5
10…5
11…3
12…5
13…4
14…4
15…4
16…4
17…4
18…4
19…5
20…3

One thing my calculation doesn't account for is how missed putts experts should be expected to make skwed that distribution, but if the sample size was sufficiently large enough, that shouldn't really affect things because most experts will still have only needed one putt per hole.

Moreover, I don't think most "experts" would need 2 from close range... not that they never two putt, but I don't think they'd ever consider two putting "normal."


In reality, subtract one from my score ( i,e give them only one shot at close range) and that's what I think they'd expect of themselves.

Maybe I'm missing something here.

Last edited by BogeyNoMore; 09-12-2014 at 03:15 PM.
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Old 09-12-2014, 03:19 PM
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BogeyNoMore BogeyNoMore is online now
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Allow me to clarify:
Quote:
Originally Posted by BogeyNoMore View Post
One thing my calculation doesn't account for is how that distribution was skewed by missed putts "experts" would typically be expected to make. But if the sample size was sufficiently large, that shouldn't really affect things because most experts will still have only needed one putt per hole.
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  #10  
Old 09-12-2014, 03:40 PM
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Stardoggy Stardoggy is offline
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I vote for Purple.
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