Tomorrow is a hearing in the case brought by Natalie Ryan.
I'm betting that the court will grant temporary relief and she'll be able to play this weekend. Also, they will rule in her favor later in the summer on the case.
The decision will be appealed and the losing party in that decision will ask the SC to hear the case.
Whether the SC uses this as it's test case or a totally different case, I predict that the SC will ultimately rule against any trans-women being allowed to compete in school athletics (including college level) in female competitions as it violates Title IX.
Also, they will rule that other athletic organizations have the right to create rules pertaining to trans-athletes however they deem to be fair.
I am going to assume that what you typed (predicting that the US Supreme Court "...will rule against trans-women... in female competitions as it violates Title IX...") was not based on thorough knowledge of that law. Title IX covers any institution that receives federal funds. Some private schools, colleges, & universities may not be under Title IX. But precedent under Title IX includes not only "equality" standards, but "harassment" standards, "hostile environment" standards, "sex discrimination" standards, etc. The Supreme Court would have to undo earlier precedent to meet your prediction regarding public schools, colleges, and universities.
Below is a direct quote from the US Department of Education regarding Title IX (
https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/tix_dis.html)
Scope of Title IX
Title IX applies to schools, local and state educational agencies, and other institutions that receive federal financial assistance from the Department. These recipients include approximately 17,600 local school districts, over 5,000 postsecondary institutions, and charter schools, for-profit schools, libraries, and museums. Also included are vocational rehabilitation agencies and education agencies of 50 states, the District of Columbia, and territories of the United States.
A recipient institution that receives Department funds must operate its education program or activity in a nondiscriminatory manner free of discrimination based on sex, including sexual orientation and gender identity. Some key issue areas in which recipients have Title IX obligations are: recruitment, admissions, and counseling; financial assistance; athletics; sex-based harassment, which encompasses sexual assault and other forms of sexual violence; treatment of pregnant and parenting students; treatment of LGBTQI+ students; discipline; single-sex education; and employment. Also, no recipient or other person may intimidate, threaten, coerce, or discriminate against any individual for the purpose of interfering with any right or privilege secured by Title IX or its implementing regulations, or because the individual has made a report or complaint, testified, assisted, or participated or refused to participate in a proceeding under Title IX. For a recipient to retaliate in any way is considered a violation of Title IX. The Department's Title IX regulations (Volume 34, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 106) provide additional information about the forms of discrimination prohibited by Title IX.
One thing I think is clear to me ... in sports, Professional vs College/Amateur are going to have different standards, because most pros do not fit under Title IX, whereas public schools, colleges, and universities do. If your "other organizations" (at the end) mean professional sports, then I agree with that prediction. Each sport's governing board will get to do what they want.
