I also set 'Bill Par' when I play. I keep score accurately, but for each hole, I set a 'Bill Par' based on what I CAN make it in. So a 500 foot par 3, would be a Bill Par of 5. If I get Bill Par, then I'm happy....if I get a Bill Birdie, I'm even happier. If I get a real birdie, I'm estactic.
(when counting +/- par, I do it based on the real par, not Bill Par).
Once I get to the point where Bill Par is being made consistently, I'll change Bill Par to meet my new ability.
Bad kicks/bounces can always happen....even to the pros. But, I look at what caused the bad kick/bounce. Was it due to my throw - off line, poor release? Or was it due to a course issue - landed well, but there was a rock/root that it kicked off of? Did it hit a branch that I hadn't seen or taken into account? If it wasn't due to me, I just shake it off and move on. If it was due to me, I figure out how it happened and work on fixing it. If I'm getting the bad kick at the same spot every round - then I need to start figuring that into my Bill Par until I can improve and not get that kick.