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2023 Texas States DGPT Silver

Did not see a thread about this. Just bought a VIP sunday ticket. I've never been to a DGPT event. Coming down from Dallas.

Kinda disappointed to not see McBeth on the players list but oh well.

Watching the pros sling discs in person is incredible. The finger snap is real! Especially if it's a course you have played before so you can see where they land compared to where you would.
If the VIP ticket is anything like the ones for DGLO it will be worth it. (unlimited snacks and drinks, better parking, VIP viewing areas, VIP swag bag)
Have fun!!!
Yeah that stinks not to see McBeth, but you will have a good time.
 
Watching the pros sling discs in person is incredible. The finger snap is real! Especially if it's a course you have played before so you can see where they land compared to where you would.
If the VIP ticket is anything like the ones for DGLO it will be worth it. (unlimited snacks and drinks, better parking, VIP viewing areas, VIP swag bag)
Have fun!!!
Yeah that stinks not to see McBeth, but you will have a good time.
One of the most eye opening experiences for me was getting to throw-out-the-bag with Gurthie one time after we both played like poop (we both shot 90 points below the prior round, meanwhile Climo and McCray both threw up a 1070 - it was humbling to say the least ha).

We had pretty similar bags, lots of Innova drivers in mine at the time for sure. So I would get to rip on a teebird and then see him do the same. And just... every single part of the shot shape was stretched out, bigger... My disc rises from hyzer for 75-100 feet? His spends 150 doing it. My disc glides for 300? His goes 400. My disc fades for 75? His for 100. I'm picking my teebird up at 475? He's out there well over 100 feet beyond me.

Its no wonder Gurthie has slimmed down a lil over time, he has to walk further to pick up all his discs. ;)
 
As with other new courses this year, I'm attempting to estimate what pros will score. I think it's helpful for a course designer to know how the expected player will score on a course in order to best design the experience. I'd like to design some courses one day, and I'd rather they be good than bad.

For example, I think ending with multiple holes that have a bell curve of scores is the best for a tournament, as final scores are not determined until the round is over. Being able to birdie, par, or bogey the last 2+ holes makes for a better round from both a player and spectator perspective. For an example of a good distribution, see the second picture in post 117 here, specifically the white bars.

Estimated Average: 63.15
Winner's score: -21
Hot round: -11

hole: % under par, % who par, average score
1: 25%, 55%, 3.15
2: 20%, 60%, 3.05
3: 15%, 55%, 4.25 (par 4)
4: 30%, 40%, 3.3
5: 35%, 35%, 3
6: 30%, 45%, 4 (par 4)
7: 30%, 55%, 2.9
8: 15%, 50%, 5.25 (par 5)
9: 25%, 55%, 3.05
10: 20%, 60%, 4.05 (par 4)
11: 10%, 55%, 4.35 (par 4)
12: 25%, 50%, 3.15
13: 40%, 40%, 2.85
14: 20%, 45%, 4.2 (par 4)
15: 50%, 40%, 2.6
16: 40%, 45%, 2.7
17: 25%, 55%, 4.05 (par 4)
18: 25%, 35%, 3.25
 
Pre-emptive review of the hole design (Disclaimer: I'm fairly ignorant of what the course designers had to work with, such as the restrictions they were given, so this is no critique of what they did). Also, I'll try and be more brief than my academic paper last week.

This course has a lot more restrictions on the lines one can throw than most ball golf courses (about 2/3 to 3/4 of the shots). This includes both the tee shots, and on the multi-shot holes, on the subsequent throws before reaching the circle. I think that's great. I wish there were more variety in those restrictions, as there seems to be a good number of low ceiling straight shots off the tee. Nonetheless, it's hard to make a DG course on a ball golf course with a lot of forced lines, and they did a great job.

So much OB. Of the 18 holes, there are 54 places you can line the hole with OB (left side, right side, and long of the basket). Of these 54, it seems like 40 of them have OB that comes into play. I don't mind OB, but I'd prefer it be used a lot less; like on 1-2 holes on the course, and for those holes to be later in the round where players have to make a decision instead of it coming into play on every shot. OB paints a hard line where 1" determines whether someone has a +1 on their scorecard or not, with no chance to recover. It seems much better to me to have a continuum where a slightly bad shot has a slightly harder recovery, and a very bad shot has a very hard recovery.

With all the dislike for OB aside, it seems like on this course they did an excellent job with what they had to work with. The pro tour is definitely moving toward courses that are more filmable and encourage spectators, and courses lined with OB require much less work to achieve both decent course design and spectators. The designers placed the left and right OB in places that require the players to play through the trees instead of bombing hyzers around them.
 
Also, Steve's distribution isn't for a hole, but scores over the course of a round, so take it with a grain of salt.

Oh, I also think the ending is interesting. I think it'll be like last weekend; a bunch of people in the race for the lead, multiple will hold the lead on the final day, and whoever can shoot well on the back 9 in the final round will win. The last nine flips between some hard, easy, and average holes, so I think scores will change a lot then. I'm looking forward to Sunday evening.
 
A couple things:
What software or formula(s) are you using to produce your forecasts?
Possibly a mistake in your hole 1 forecast which UDisc shows as a 717 ft Par 4?

Starting to include more OB penalties in course design is similar to when the 3-pt shot was introduced in basketball. Incorporating lots of OB areas changes the game from traditional golf scoring (mostly penalty free at the elite level*) to a new not-yet-labeled golf scoring scheme where some throws cost the player two strokes instead of one. However, unlike 3-pointers which are scored based on skill, there are many OB penalty strokes which are randomly "earned" (fluky) versus earning them strictly from very "unskillful" throws.

Point being that there are two separate games being played on tour depending on the amount of penalty elements - OB, hazard, mandos, 2-meter - actively in play within a course design and their stats should be separated, especially ratings. For those who feel ratings have become inflated, OB penalties padding propagator scores is a key factor.

*People might be surprised to know that the top 200 PGA tour players average just 1 penalty of any kind every 2.5 rounds which is 0.4 per round. The average penalties per player per round ranges from 3 to 6 on our DGPT courses heavy with OB. In a 4-round event, a PGA player might be expected to get 2-3 penalties total. On our DGPT OB courses, our players can get anywhere from 12 to 24 penalties total and that doesn't account for additional hidden strokes from losing distance on some penalties.

If we're going to have courses with OB and other penalties, do them on every hole, like using gutters in bowling, and ideally design their positions well to minimize random penalties. Or use/design traditional courses to expect few or no penalties. Separate each course type's rating stats and tour stats.
 
A couple things:
What software or formula(s) are you using to produce your forecasts?

My brain (although most people would probably refer to it as their "gut"). I can go into it a bit more if you want, but I think ideally I'd be able to spot a hole/think of a hole to create and then roughly know the scoring distribution based on that hole. Designers are fairly limited in many respects, so I think a good first step is toward an individual designer being able to do it in their head without a formula. I'm attempting to get better at that.

A couple things:
Possibly a mistake in your hole 1 forecast which UDisc shows as a 717 ft Par 4?

Yep, good catch. My % predictions remain the same, but the average score on that hole and overall should be +1
 

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Missed it. Had to minimize my screen for a few minutes while a coworker stopped by to talk. Sure wish I could have paused or I could rewind a few minutes to see it, but for some reason that technology is still not available - SMH
 
Missed it. Had to minimize my screen for a few minutes while a coworker stopped by to talk. Sure wish I could have paused or I could rewind a few minutes to see it, but for some reason that technology is still not available - SMH

Round 1 is on YouTube, for what it's worth. You can pause and rewind there.
 
Starting to include more OB penalties in course design is similar to when the 3-pt shot was introduced in basketball. Incorporating lots of OB areas changes the game from traditional golf scoring (mostly penalty free at the elite level*) to a new not-yet-labeled golf scoring scheme where some throws cost the player two strokes instead of one. However, unlike 3-pointers which are scored based on skill, there are many OB penalty strokes which are randomly "earned" (fluky) versus earning them strictly from very "unskillful" throws.

Point being that there are two separate games being played on tour depending on the amount of penalty elements - OB, hazard, mandos, 2-meter - actively in play within a course design and their stats should be separated, especially ratings. For those who feel ratings have become inflated, OB penalties padding propagator scores is a key factor.

*People might be surprised to know that the top 200 PGA tour players average just 1 penalty of any kind every 2.5 rounds which is 0.4 per round. The average penalties per player per round ranges from 3 to 6 on our DGPT courses heavy with OB. In a 4-round event, a PGA player might be expected to get 2-3 penalties total. On our DGPT OB courses, our players can get anywhere from 12 to 24 penalties total and that doesn't account for additional hidden strokes from losing distance on some penalties.

If we're going to have courses with OB and other penalties, do them on every hole, like using gutters in bowling, and ideally design their positions well to minimize random penalties. Or use/design traditional courses to expect few or no penalties. Separate each course type's rating stats and tour stats.

I think I understand what you're saying. I agree that there are some similarities to adding the 3pt shot and having a course laden with OB. I understand what you're saying about OB strokes not being as high as we think; I think that number is inflated by the OB-laden courses, and I'd prefer to avoid them. On this course, it makes a lot of sense. Without the OB, everyone would play around the trees instead of through them, and moving it into the woods would reduce spectators, DGN, and post-production crews from seeing as well.

I'm saying I prefer minimal OB courses more due to the smoothness of the penalty curve. For instance, last year you and I had a discussion about Jonesboro's hole 5 and the penalty stroke McBeth took after his drive hit the basket's advertisement bucket and kicked OB. You suggested a relief area instead of OB, where there's a choice of playing from a designated drop zone or a previous lie. That makes so much more sense to me than the current OB setup. Nonetheless, it still punishes poor shots equally no matter how poor they are. I think this is inherently less desirable (from a player's and viewer's standpoint), and I think that there are better ways of doing it.

To elaborate on your analogy and the differences between OB penalties and a graded penalties (i.e. rough) for bad shots, the 3pt line in basketball has drastically changed the game. However, it has also significantly reduced the value of the mid-range shot. If you look at a heat map (attached, and the second to last pic here). You can see that shots closest to the basket have the highest expected value (dark green). As you move away, those shots quickly decrease in value (changing to light green and then purple), but on a curve. This incentivizes teams to get as close as they can before shooting. Different than close to the basket, the 3pt line represents a sudden increase to the EPV (expected point value) of a shot. You can see that the long mid-range shots decrease in EPV (dark purple), and then outside the 3pt line increases EPV with no curve. OB is like the 3pt line, and graded penalties such as rough are like the space close to the basket (the "zone").

I prefer courses with rough instead of OB because it encourages players to play the best shot possible, and rewards them for throwing the best shot, doesn't penalize them for some shots, penalizes them a little for slightly bad shots, and penalizes a lot for really bad shots. The thrill of recovery is something that I love when playing and watching. I also think it's fairer. I would like holes better if they had one side with OB and one side with graded rough. We don't see that much as most holes like that have a very thick rough instead of a graded rough.

What I'm really trying to get across is that there are a lot of things we can improve in course design, and I think less OB is one of them. I think that because it appropriately punishes and rewards according to the quality of the shot. I think appropriately rewarding makes for better playing and better viewing.
 

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A couple things:
What software or formula(s) are you using to produce your forecasts?

TL;DR: I overanalyzed your question and have a short, reasonable answer in the last paragraph.

As a programmer, my brain can't help but think about this. I think to have an accurate algorithm for this, we'd need to first gather a lot of data.

Specifically, we'd first need to graph where players land on what types of holes. This would allow us to see the expected drive length, range of errors, and distribution of errors for each hole. We'd need to do this for at least three types of shots: drives from the tee, putts, and anything else(approaches, second shots on par 5s, pitch outs, etc.). We have enough of this data for putts (UDisc's rough approximations), but we don't have it for drives and the "anything else" category.

Second, we'd need to map out holes a lot more accurately. Tee signs/caddie books are a great start, but they're sometimes not accurate, and I've yet to see one that is as accurate as is needed. They'd need to be drawn to scale and be 3d to some degree. They'd also need to know where the gaps are, where the trees are, etc.

Lastly, we'd need another algorithm to basically determine how a pro is going to play the hole. Take Winthrop's hole 10. Some pros play for the birdie 3 by taking the simple hole out to the left, and some go for the eagle. Determining how many would take the birdie route and how many would take the eagle route could be done by writing an algorithm that compares similar holes and estimates.

That's probably far more than what you're looking for. I think a fairly accurate algorithm could be written based off of the data we have now, plus a little bit more. If someone were to have access to the UDisc score data and perhaps PDGA ratings, they could add a few data pieces to each hole and get a decent predictor of scores. UDisc provides hole length, so we'd need to add (at least) elevation change and density (something like 1 meaning no trees, 10 being the most wooded hole ever), we could have a decent predictor of scores. It wouldn't account for weather or the holes nuances (forced layups) but it'd be a lot better than what we have now (nothing). I could write the code for most of that, but I don't have the time/desire to.
 

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