2023 Pro Worlds - Smuggler's Notch

[txmxer]

Anyone want to speculate on the winning scores? I say Kristin finishes up around -28.

I suspect MPO will need -45 or better to win.

 

[Brychanus]

If you drop KT's one awful 892 round (which seems possible w/ the 2.5 St.D./100 points criterion, given that her St.D. is fairly tight) she's still showing an upward trajectory over the last 20 rounds:

 

[Brychanus]

Anyone want to speculate on the winning scores? I say Kristin finishes up around -28.

I suspect MPO will need -45 or better to win.

Fun
FPO -28 seems about right
MPO -48

I'll cheat and pick my podium now:

FPO
1. Tattar (look, I'm doing it, and I don't even feel bad about it)
2. Gannon
3. Bloomroos

MPO
1. Wysocki
2. Buhr
3. McBeth (Come on Paulie, you know all the "washed" comments are in the chamber, even if you go 3rd. You need to keep my dreams of eternal NecroMcBeth alive)

 

[biscoe]

...and her final round at Preserve did not "cost her a W," she trailed the entire event.

Maybe it will turn out she does have some secret injury she is trying to hide but imo today's performance was just the nature of woods golf manifesting itself.

 

[ChrisWoj]

...and her final round at Preserve did not "cost her a W," she trailed the entire event.

Maybe it will turn out she does have some secret injury she is trying to hide but imo today's performance was just the nature of woods golf manifesting itself.

The point of that little aside, and I know I wasn't clear about this, was just to kinda put a little doubt on the notion that she's just coasting late in events. But to counter your point: she did not trail the entire event. She was tied with Allen with 8 holes to go before the wheels came off and cost her the W.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

Start obligatory "Has Kristin peaked" thread.

 

[txmxer]

Fun
FPO -28 seems about right
MPO -48

I'll cheat and pick my podium now:

FPO
1. Tattar (look, I'm doing it, and I don't even feel bad about it)
2. Gannon
3. Bloomroos

MPO
1. Wysocki
2. Buhr
3. McBeth (Come on Paulie, you know all the "washed" comments are in the chamber, even if you go 3rd. You need to keep my dreams of eternal NecroMcBeth alive)

The way Kristin is putting, I think she could be -30, but I also expect her to play a bit more conservative in the final round assuming she's 6+ ahead of second (Missy).

The average on the MPO side is -9 and we see a lot of variation. A bad tree kick and a roll away could change someone's round today. On the low side, I see Ricky average -10 for the next 3 rounds so anyone that challenges him needs a -47. If someone plays lights out the next 3 rounds, probably a -36 for 3 rounds. So, you'd need to be at -12, play lights out to challenge Ricky at the extreme end.

Drop that down to average -9, and Ricky finishes at -44. I don't expect anyone to throw -36 in the next 3 rounds, but a -30 is certainly possible. That puts it at -14 going in to today to challenge.

All this could be way off. I can't see the winning score being worse than -40 and I think -44/-45 is the right area. They should be getting the courses dialed and hitting around -10 more consistently the next 3 rounds.

Not to take anything away from Grady. I think it would be awesome if he held on and took a title. Pretty always root for underdogs.

But it's stacked up at -18/-17 right now. Hard to imagine someone coming from outside that range to win.

 

[mikemiller20]

Anyone think Kona will crack the top 10?

 

[ChrisWoj]

Anyone think Kona will crack the top 10?

Woulda been a question worth asking before the event.

But at this point - everyone is going to answer "no." She needs to make up 22 strokes in 2 rounds to catch the group tied for 9th, much less to pass almost all of them.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

Anyone think Kona will crack the top 10?

Shallows' Alt Acct?

 

[Brychanus]

Shallows' Alt Acct?

Shallows has been suspiciously quiet for the last 30 minutes

 

[Flick Maniac]

Man, that hole 8 at Brewster is a plod when youre hitting a tree on every shot. Swear Barela has been out there for a solid 20 minutes soon

 

[Jolt]

The score spreed in FPO is just huge. . 18 strokes between 1st to 10th and 33 throws from 1st to the cutline
In MPO its just 3throws separating 1st and 10th place. . .and just 17 from 1st to the cutline.

 

[Jolt]

Woulda been a question worth asking before the event.

But at this point - everyone is going to answer "no." She needs to make up 22 strokes in 2 rounds to catch the group tied for 9th, much less to pass almost all of them.

Kona and Hokom and a few more would need a mirical round to even get to play that 5th round. . and a few BIG names a little to close to the cutline to feel safe

 

[Flick Maniac]

Lead card has a kinda dark vibe :/

 

[Steve West]

The score spreed in FPO is just huge. . 18 strokes between 1st to 10th and 33 throws from 1st to the cutline
In MPO its just 3throws separating 1st and 10th place. . .and just 17 from 1st to the cutline.

It's easy to get a wide score spread when there is a wide skill spread. Or, more accurately, when there are more gaps in the skill spread from having fewer players.

 

[BogeyNoMore]

Some big names are gonna have to make some big moves on moving day, if they want to have a good shot at this.

14 players with 5 strokes of the lead.
36 moar holes, loaded with OB.
A lot can happen.

 

[seedlings]

Today's r3 keeps the narrative VERY interesting on MPO. Isaac was flaming hot, then hit a cool down. New course record by Lehtinen. Dickerson was hot. Rick and Niklas were cold. Simon and Calvin are treading water.

Cole Redalen plays and carries himself like a champion.

 

[cwild]

Anyone think Kona will crack the top 10?

She's 80 strokes off the lead, as usual. Woof

 

[glassila]

Cole Redalen plays and carries himself like a champion.

I'd love to see this out of Barela. Actually AB is looking confident and playing good so far, but will it continue???

Dickerson is looking like the 2020 Dickerson - don't count him out.