• Discover new ways to elevate your game with the updated DGCourseReview app!
    It's entirely free and enhanced with features shaped by user feedback to ensure your best experience on the course. (App Store or Google Play)

Par Talk

Which of these best describes Hole 18 at the Utah Open?

  • A par 5 where 37% of throws are hero throws, and 21% are double heroes.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .
No. I'm talking about expected scores over a stretch of several holes as less granularity than hole by hole.

For example, at DeLa you might expect an expert to take 22 throws for holes 1-6. Since you are not predicting hole-by-hole, you aren't dependent on a specific combination of hole scores and thus increase your (apparent) accuracy.

Yeah, you see, I can't go along with that because I've always tried to stick as closely as possible to the definition, and it only defines par for one hole at a time. Otherwise, I would have liked to start with a total par for a course, and then spread the total parlecules to individual holes.

But, yeah, I chose to use 1000-rated MPO and 925-rated FPO as the standard. That's no secret. Those both fit within the realm of "expert".

(While 925 MPO is statistically the most analogous to 1000 MPO, using 950 for FPO is an acceptable and more pragmatic choice because there are actually Blue standards and tees out there.)
 
Without elevation numbers to be able to adjust raw distance I predict that par for today's golf course round has been set accurately via Steve's model. Hole 4 lies in the NAGS range and Hole 7 has what appears to be a forced layup before going onto the island which makes it play longer than its Par 3 distance. Since the course is probably hilly I could be way off. This is based on 350 foot chunks of holes and close range of 150.
 
Without elevation numbers to be able to adjust raw distance I predict that par for today's golf course round has been set accurately via Steve's model. Hole 4 lies in the NAGS range and Hole 7 has what appears to be a forced layup before going onto the island which makes it play longer than its Par 3 distance. Since the course is probably hilly I could be way off. This is based on 350 foot chunks of holes and close range of 150.

I don't know that they were set via my method, but if I recall correctly, last year they all agreed with my method- as well with as a lot of other methods. (There's probably a chart up there a year ago.) Choose a real expert (not a Blue or Advanced player) go for any kind of "expected" and it's not hard at all to agree on most hole pars.
 
Ladies first. Santa Cruz Masters Cup presented by Innova, DeLaveaga Golf Course (FPO)

attachment.php


Hole 7 (567 foot island hole with re-throw from a safe drive zone) seems to have played like a par 5, but still had nearly enough 4s to justify the par 4.

attachment.php


Looking at the distribution of 925-rated scores, you could almost say this hole does does not have an expected score. But, if I had to pick one, it would be 5.
 

Attachments

  • SCMCGolfFPO.png
    SCMCGolfFPO.png
    35.7 KB · Views: 75
  • SCMCGolfFPO7.png
    SCMCGolfFPO7.png
    12.7 KB · Views: 76
Without even looking it up, I would guess hole 7 has some sort of island with OB where the player gets the equivalent of a 2-shot penalty if they go OB due to a drop zone or required re-throw that's too far away to have much of a chance to save the shot.
 
I find it really interesting that some of the voices who say, "can't question a TD on par," are the same ones saying, "that TD had no right to DQ Val."
 
I find it really interesting that some of the voices who say, "can't question a TD on par," are the same ones saying, "that TD had no right to DQ Val."

Did you say the obverse in the Val thread? Now that would get a reaction.
 
Anyway, not to question the TD on par, just to offer feedback for future adjustments....

Santa Cruz Masters Cup presented by Innova, DeLaveaga Golf Course (MPO)

attachment.php


I would have set #4 and #7 to 3. These two show why I think any average-related or median method can put too much emphasis on high scores.
attachment.php
 

Attachments

  • SCMCGolfMPO.png
    SCMCGolfMPO.png
    38.4 KB · Views: 64
  • SCMCGolfMPO47.jpg
    SCMCGolfMPO47.jpg
    97.9 KB · Views: 65
I find it really interesting that some of the voices who say, "can't question a TD on par," are the same ones saying, "that TD had no right to DQ Val."

Did you say the obverse in the Val thread? Now that would get a reaction.

Nope, I'd get spammed by... voices to be unnamed. No one wants par to permeate anywhere but here. That's fine by me.
 
BTW - if I interpret your stats correctly, only one hole really pushes down into par 2 territory at DeLa. No wonder so many don't like the course.
 
BTW - if I interpret your stats correctly, only one hole really pushes down into par 2 territory at DeLa. No wonder so many don't like the course.

If you mean the golf course a few posts above, I wouldn't say any of them are near par 2. Hole #6 has a mode of 2, but that's just 38.8% of the scores. That means a player needs to have two throws in a row that are in the top 62.3%ile to get a 2. Or, too put it another way, if the hole were a par two it would imply that (1-.623) = 37.7% of players make an "error" one each of the first two throws.

Considering that getting par on most holes takes a throw only in the top 91%ile, (about one in 11 throws generally result in an error) par 2 is way too tough a par for that hole.

It also has 38.4% 3s so if just one expert out of 213 gets a 3 instead of 2, it would have tipped to a mode of 3.
 
If you mean the golf course a few posts above, I wouldn't say any of them are near par 2. Hole #6 has a mode of 2, but that's just 38.8% of the scores. That means a player needs to have two throws in a row that are in the top 62.3%ile to get a 2. Or, too put it another way, if the hole were a par two it would imply that (1-.623) = 37.7% of players make an "error" one each of the first two throws.

Considering that getting par on most holes takes a throw only in the top 91%ile, (about one in 11 throws generally result in an error) par 2 is way too tough a par for that hole.

It also has 38.4% 3s so if just one expert out of 213 gets a 3 instead of 2, it would have tipped to a mode of 3.

That hole and "gravity" are par 2.5's. Hole 4 and I-5 are par 3.5's. It's all a wash.
 
Santa Cruz Masters Cup presented by Innova, 2018 DeLaveaga DGC

attachment.php


Hole #13 could be called a par 4, but it's so on-the-bubble that it wouldn't make sense to mess up the pattern.

For FPO, it may be worth noting the par 4s.

attachment.php
 

Attachments

  • SCMCDG.png
    SCMCDG.png
    35.1 KB · Views: 78
  • SCMCDGFPO2.png
    SCMCDGFPO2.png
    34.3 KB · Views: 76
Yeah, you see, I can't go along with that because I've always tried to stick as closely as possible to the definition, and it only defines par for one hole at a time . . .

LOL. This made me almost spit up my beer, since I had just read the following:

Generally, Gold par is about 5 lower than Blue Par. Maybe 6 for 21 holes.

So where is this "Gold par" and "Blue Par" in the definition? You know, the definition that you keep quoting? Also, seriously, you need to stop lying about this. Remember the stuff you just ignored because you didn't think it was helpful?
 
LOL. This made me almost spit up my beer, since I had just read the following:



So where is this "Gold par" and "Blue Par" in the definition? You know, the definition that you keep quoting? Also, seriously, you need to stop lying about this. Remember the stuff you just ignored because you didn't think it was helpful?

When the TD chooses to use a 1000-rated player as the expert, it's Gold par. When they choose to use a 950-rated player, it's Blue par. The choice can make a 5 or 6 throw difference in the sum of the pars they set for a course.

That expounds on the definition, it does not "ignore" it.
attachment.php


But, more importantly, please tell us how everything would all fall into place and we would have a par utopia if you could convince me that I didn't follow the definition. Perhaps there is another approach to get to where you want us to be.
 

Attachments

  • Meme.jpg
    Meme.jpg
    36.7 KB · Views: 68
When the TD chooses to use a 1000-rated player as the expert, it's Gold par. When they choose to use a 950-rated player, it's Blue par. The choice can make a 5 or 6 throw difference in the sum of the pars they set for a course.

.

When and how is this done? Does the TD ask the guy, "How did you feel about that round? Could you have done better on he 4s and 5s?"
 
When the TD chooses to use a 1000-rated player as the expert, it's Gold par. When they choose to use a 950-rated player, it's Blue par. The choice can make a 5 or 6 throw difference in the sum of the pars they set for a course.

That's not in the definition. And you know that because . . .

That expounds on the definition, it does not "ignore" it.

What you are doing is making up your own definition. You can call it "expounding" if that makes you feel better, but you're just making it up.

Can you just imagine: "Well officer, its true that the speed limit is 55 but, because that speed limit was established in the 1970's during an oil crisis and when cars weren't as safe now, the 65mph that I was travelling isn't a violation of the speed limit so much as just "expounding" on it.

But, more importantly, please tell us how everything would all fall into place and we would have a par utopia if you could convince me that I didn't follow the definition. Perhaps there is another approach to get to where you want us to be.

I know that you want to make this about, "well what definition would you make up to make this all better?" but the problem is that I am not advocating changing the definition as you are. What I am pointing out is that you are making up your own definition. I know that you don't see it that way so lets explore the definition of SOCMOBR. In order to get there we have to immediately discard a few parts of the real definition.

First, errorless play goes out the window. You don't worry about errors - because you don't have the data for that. So, if someone nails a tree off the tee box on their drive, that and the subsequent throws go into your data. Arguably, this inflates SOCMOBR par, but who knows? Ultimately this doesn't matter to you because, as you've admitted, you're just trying to get to an arbitrary, and acceptable to you, number of birdies.

Second, you don't consult with the TD of the tournament to determine what the TD regards as an expert. You make up your own definition of "expert" with an arbitrary rating chosen solely for the purpose of reducing birdies to another arbitrary number that you deem appropriate. And, your definition of expert, isn't part of the current par definition.

Additionally, you seem to ignore completely other documents when it suits you to do so and then reference them when convenient. For example, the design standards and par guidelines clearly link par to distance and foliage density, but you ignore that, insisting that par is not (or shouldn't be) tied to distance, but then discuss par for different skill levels which is, presumably, derived from those same supporting documents. If it's not, then you are simply giving different meanings to the word expert, something not supported by the definition. "Expert novice" anyone?

Perhaps the worst part of what you do, especially in relation to the second point above, is what I see as the arrogance to be willing ridicule people who disagree with you, using SOCMOBR inspired charts and suggesting that you should give an "award" for the TD who varies the most from your dictates, allowing more birdies than you deem appropriate.

So, the SOCMOBR definition of par:

Par for any hole is the score that 1000 rated players get on that hole.

Too simple? Just "expound" on it.

FWIW, I don't ascribe evil intentions to you. And I don't think TDs should be able to take cover from criticism of the choices that they make. I think that it would be more honest of you to determine what type player the TD has defined as an expert than to claim that their par designation was inaccurate. Maybe you've done that, but it's hard to get past the scoring distribution charts, TD shaming and most-deviation-from-SOCMOBR award talk solely aimed directly at the embarrassment of birdies that you see in Tour events. Ultimately, that might get you the birdie reduction that you desire without falsely claiming that TDs are "inaccurately" setting par.

And until the design standards, par guidelines and par definition are all aligned and the PDGA decides who an expert is, your errorless and distanceless SOCMOBR analysis that uses its own definition of "expert" will always use a different definition of par than the one promulgated by the PDGA.
 
Top