What will burn at Paul until next worlds (and it will) is that he did not have a 6+ stroke lead going into the final round. He simply did not separate himself through 4 rounds. When that many players are that close, anything can happen. And did...
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The McBeth Era...
- Thread starter gammaxgoblin
- Start date
Emporia next year... It's gonna be one of the guys with elite golf power - Paul is gonna be a favorite without a doubt.
Conrad's power is weird... He throws those fairway-driver hybrids a country mile, but doesn't seem comfortable engaging it with the distance drivers. Maybe with Worlds at a big course next year he will invest time in that.
Conrad's power is weird... He throws those fairway-driver hybrids a country mile, but doesn't seem comfortable engaging it with the distance drivers. Maybe with Worlds at a big course next year he will invest time in that.
dbrodeanu
Bogey Member
What also will burn at Paul is getting complacent and not going for the birdie.
Always go for the win, do not underestimate your opponent.
There was a reason Conrad made it to the finals and Paul lost sight of that and it cost him the title.
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I don't think Paul underestimated James.
He simply played the percentages.
In literally every sense possible, he got beat by a long shot.
That said, if he's in a similar situation again, I bet he suddenly feels better about going for the green.
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I don't agree. I think you make that lay up every time. Huge chance to win, downside is a playoff. Risking the OB there would be dumb, IMO.
Yep. Given 100 more chances like that, he'll play for par 100 more times. If the roles were reversed, Conrad would have done the same.
McBeth wasn't underestimating his opponent -- in the few holes leading up to that moment he'd made any number of aggressive shots to hold the lead.
100% agree. Can't imagine stepping up in that situation and doing anything else.
The only thing I could see different is being slightly more aggressive on the 2nd, giving him a bit shorter 3rd.
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A short while earlier, the guy clinging to a 1-stroke lead for a World Championship, decided it was the right time to see if he could pull off a ricochet off a fence. Not to mention the putt on the raised basket. Had Conrad's shot not fallen -- and there was about a 99.97% chance that it wouldn't -- we'd be talking about how McBeastian that Final 9 was to seal #6.
Arisugawa
Par Member
There is a reason Conrad's shot is going to be considered the greatest shot in the sport until something even more improbable surpasses it.
Behind by a stroke, your opponent only needs to par, you have to throw it from 250 feet, cameras everywhere, spectators everywhere, the World Championships on the line, history on the line - the gravitas and the significance of the moment cannot be overstated.
This is a rare moment in sports where someone seized victory right out from the hands of someone who did everything right to secure the win in the moments leading up to that shot.
You don't gamble on someone making a .03% shot when victory is all but assured, especially in those conditions, with that much pressure.
McBeth did everything right - everything he needed to do. Conrad simply hit the dream shot and upended the narrative.
Look into the details of this round, look past that one shot and see the work McBeth did and how much work Conrad needed to do just to keep up to put himself in that position, and the texture and richness of this moment becomes even more delicious.
This isn't just the story of a single shot - so much happened leading up to it to make that shot merely the capstone on an absolutely amazing duel.
Can't help but think the one Paul may be thinking about is the missed birdie putt on #3 where Conrad took a bogey, it was a putt I thought he should have made and well within his range and a tapin compared to ones he made later in the round.
I doubt PMcB has any regrets about the 18th hole. He played it by the book. His regrets lie solely on the 1st playoff hole, IMO.
He ran his drive pretty deep in regulation. When he played 16 in sudden death, he should have made the adjustment toward the front of the green.
James has that hole dialed-in. It's gotta be a total mindf#@k to try and battle him on that frame.
He ran his drive pretty deep in regulation. When he played 16 in sudden death, he should have made the adjustment toward the front of the green.
James has that hole dialed-in. It's gotta be a total mindf#@k to try and battle him on that frame.
oldmandiscer
Banned
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Pauls teeshot on #9 was slightly rushed. I could tell right away. He didn't get the right footing then he resets quickly then pulls it into the tree, first available. That shot if any cost him the title. I don't think he was completely committed when he rushed his routine a bit there.
That was a bad bogey.
That was a bad bogey.
raceface59
Par Member
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I'm not really a fan of dynasties, so I wasn't rooting for Paul this time, especially with most of my other fave players also vying for the title lol. That isn't saying that I can't appreciate just how good he is and how exceptionally well he wears his game face. I was pulling for James simply because I wanted to see a seemingly humble guy on a fresh team bring home the goods to MVP. It would have been great to see Nate or Kevin take it as well. I couldn't help but feel bad for Calvin while watching his day erode. I can't see Paul not having a few championships left to claim but I feel that he's going to have to work extra hard to keep the rest of the pack at bay.
pjhayes7
Double Eagle Member
I would agree that there are more players that could take down a given tournament now, but I would still say Paul has about a 10% chance better than any other player of winning the next Worlds. At this point, there are probably 6 or 7 players i would not at all be shocked if they won(and probably 6 or 7 more who could manage but would be a little bit of a surprise), but Paul not only has the skill to win open, wooded, whatever course but also has seemingly the best mental game. Of course that is really hard to say for sure, but at least in the running.
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Beautifully stated. :clap:
BrianWeissman
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I think that's classic "results oriented thinking". Mcbeth is an extremely shrewd tactical player, and perfectly read the situation. 499/500 times his decision to lay up for an automatic par wins him the World Championship. Keep in mind, James had already laid up to the mouth of the fairway before Paul took his second shot.
I think the real question is: was James correct to lay up for his second and not attempt some insane roller or turnover to get himself to within 80-100 feet for a miracle jump putt? He can't ever expect to drill the basket from 252 feet away, so his decision to lay up closes the door completely unless Paul absolutely screws up.
I'm sure people will be discussing both sides of this moment for years to come, I'm just glad it happened!
I think James did exactly what he had in mind when he stepped up to his disc at the edge of the water. He only had an awkward standstill throw. He just wanted his third to have an open line to the basket.
If you go back to his ace at De La, he plans to throw it in from distance.
We talk about this being 1 in a 1000 throw—all numbers are meaningless. What we can see is that the pros that had similar shots throughout the tourney were peppering the basket within about 10 feet. Not the same as going in with all the pressure, but you can imagine JC stepping up to a shot like this and being all over the basket just about every time.
This shot was one in a million because of everything else around it. That can not be duplicated.
If you go back to his ace at De La, he plans to throw it in from distance.
We talk about this being 1 in a 1000 throw—all numbers are meaningless. What we can see is that the pros that had similar shots throughout the tourney were peppering the basket within about 10 feet. Not the same as going in with all the pressure, but you can imagine JC stepping up to a shot like this and being all over the basket just about every time.
This shot was one in a million because of everything else around it. That can not be duplicated.
This is what I was saying to friends immediately following it - I would have tried a miracle-standstill-backhand-roller from the spot he was in, to try to get inside of 150 for the more reasonable throw in or bomb jumper attempt. The trust he had in his ability to nail the shot from 250 was something I would not have possessed. I would have thought my odds of nailing a giant roller to inside 150 and then hitting the shot from there would be higher than hitting a 250.
wims
Double Eagle Member
Conrad is definitely not 500:1 to throw in that shot. He's definitely getting one within 100 shots, probably much better than that actually
The what-ifs are crazy.
If James had managed a roller to get a 100-150' look for 3, does Paul then go for the birdie? Probably. And make it? Probably. It's obviously all guess work. But up and down from 300' is absolutely doable for Paul.
Given the tee shots, the way James played it is almost the only option to force the playoff. His 2nd throw had to be conservative enough to trick Paul into playing conservative.
How much gamesmanship was in Conrad's 2nd throw? At face value, my assumption is that he didn't have the footing to go any more aggressive. We may not ever know the calculations going on in his mind there.
