I'm still amazed at this notion that Paul's name on Discraft discs is going to generate oodles of sales. Can I get some guesses?
I understand that his name is going to sell more discs, but I just don't see how it works. Enlighten me.
Let's assume that the relative numbers $8 mm vs $52 mm relate to actual disc sales. That means Innova is moving six discs for every one of Discraft's, generally speaking. Are we expecting that Discraft numbers are going up? Are those new sales, or are they cannibalized sales, are they stealing from Innova or some other manufacturer? Is the expectation that Discraft is gonna catch Innova in sales? Or will it be something more modest? Are folks gonna just buy new discs, and a lot of them, based on this move? If you make DiscPaul discs are you gonna canniblalize other Discraft sales, or are you gonna get all new customers? What conversion rate does Discraft expect? How many from Tri, how many from Innova?
Innova folks, how many of you are following Paul? How many of you are converting your bag? How many of you are going to go out of your way to try one of these discs? How many would take one if given one and if it flew good, would move an Innova product that flew the same, out of your bag?
Discraft fans, are you expecting something dynamically new? Something no one has ever seen before, longer, better?
BTW - I often think Sonic is overboard, but I think he's thinkin' a lot clearer than some are.
Interesting questions.
Overall, I don't think this generates any NEW sales for disc golf in general. All of the new sales for Discraft will be cannibalized from other companies.
I think the biggest boost to Discraft's sales is going to be switchovers from Innova. If we take the $54millie vs. $8millie numbers for a spin, then Discraft could increase their sales by 50% if they steal less than 8% of Innova's sales. That doesn't seem too far fetched to me.
How many of Innova's sales are McBeth sig/tour/special edition stamps? 8%?
Of course, Innova will have other irons in the fire. They are going to be pushing out a new Barsby signature disc, and all of their other product lines, and they still have a lot of great brand ambassadors. (Sexton!) But yes, they will take a hit from the McBeth departure, and Discraft will see benefits from his arrival.
If we assume a 1:1 switchover from Innova sales to Discraft, then the losses at Innova will be much smaller--proportionately--than the gains that Discraft experiences.
Swapping bag over? That seems pretty extreme.
I throw mostly Innova but I've also got some Discraft and DGA in the bag. I don't really need any new molds, but if they do a McZone I'll very likely pick one up. I have so many backups for my main throwers, that switching to equivalent Discraft molds would be dumb unless they were very nearly
exact copies. Doesn't seem likely, unless McBeth pushes for, say, a Destroyer clone.
However, I could see myself getting more into Discraft swag than I currently am: pins and patches for the bag, frolf polo, etc.
But overall I'm not going to do a complete bandwagon jump. And Discraft has always been OK in my book, just not my primary go-to for most things. That will remain the same.
Just can't say how glad I am that Paul is not going to Trilogy. I would have to disown him in that scenario.