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That seems like something that should be mathematically impossible.
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DGPT: 2022 Dynamic Discs Open Apr 28-May 1
- Thread starter brutalbrutus
- Start date
That seems like something that should be mathematically impossible.
biscoe
* Ace Member *
Brychanus
* Ace Member *
I was curious how the relationship between player rating and strokes looked this year vs. last year at DDO. In MPO 2021, we saw Mcbeth, Wysocki, McMahon, Dickerson, and Heimburg at the top at the end in 2021. In 2022 the top of the field looked different other than Wysocki. What about the field overall? And FPO? I was interested in the effect of the conditions on the fields.
There are some other differences than just the weather conditions this year, but this may be interesting to some of you. I pulled the data from Round 1 to Round 3 (before the cut) when conditions were harshest and when almost the entire field was present (dropping DNFs/incomplete data). I used PDGA player rating as the average indicator of player "skill" and Stroke Total (sum of Round 1 to Round 3) as that player's performance before the cut & slightly easier weather. Intuitively, player rating should be negatively correlated with the stroke total (on average in the limit). Scatterplot images attached.
In MPO, PDGA player rating shared ~69% of the variance with total strokes in 2021. They shared only ~42% of the variance in 2022 - a 27% difference potentially due mostly to conditions/course difference!
In contrast, in FPO the PDGA player rating and Stoke Total shared ~71% of the variance in both years. Interesting to see that there was apparently a much larger hit of the conditions on FPO (no doubt layout, pars, weather differences over the day, other field characteristics etc. factor into the differences).
Limitations abound & only two tournaments, but interesting. I'd be curious what the average & standard deviation in shared variance between PDGA rating and total strokes is across all tournaments excluding wild conditions.
There are some other differences than just the weather conditions this year, but this may be interesting to some of you. I pulled the data from Round 1 to Round 3 (before the cut) when conditions were harshest and when almost the entire field was present (dropping DNFs/incomplete data). I used PDGA player rating as the average indicator of player "skill" and Stroke Total (sum of Round 1 to Round 3) as that player's performance before the cut & slightly easier weather. Intuitively, player rating should be negatively correlated with the stroke total (on average in the limit). Scatterplot images attached.
In MPO, PDGA player rating shared ~69% of the variance with total strokes in 2021. They shared only ~42% of the variance in 2022 - a 27% difference potentially due mostly to conditions/course difference!
In contrast, in FPO the PDGA player rating and Stoke Total shared ~71% of the variance in both years. Interesting to see that there was apparently a much larger hit of the conditions on FPO (no doubt layout, pars, weather differences over the day, other field characteristics etc. factor into the differences).
Limitations abound & only two tournaments, but interesting. I'd be curious what the average & standard deviation in shared variance between PDGA rating and total strokes is across all tournaments excluding wild conditions.
Attachments
I meant specifically changing holes prior to worlds to match the strengths of a player his company sponsors would be unethical IMO. I wasn't calling out emac in any way, nor do I have any reason to think he is not designing the course to be the best from his perspective and doesn't plan to take appropriate feedback from all players offering.
Orioles_Lefty
Eagle Member
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I'm not going to dump on Emporia for hosting worlds when the number of bids is quite low. That's going to be something that needs to get figured out in this DGPT-PDGA partnership. Is there enough desire by the DGPT to keep the World Championships elevated in importance? Are locales going to want to bid to Worlds instead of chasing a DGPT spot? Will Worlds ultimately rotate among DGPT cities? Will hosting Worlds be a way for locales not on the DGPT use Worlds as a way to sell themselves?
I'm just spitballing questions.
I also wonder if Emporia will be interested in hosting Worlds with the new "no double dipping" rule.
I'm just spitballing questions.
I also wonder if Emporia will be interested in hosting Worlds with the new "no double dipping" rule.
OK, I get that. Sorry for the misinterpretation.
If I know EMac, he'll take input from lots of sources -- players commentators, fans, and PDGA officials. BUT we all must remember that while it both Jones Supreme & ECC remain EMac designed courses, Worlds is the PDGA's event. I know from first-hand experience that "upon review" the final say on any design changes and how certain holes may play (OB/Hazard/nothing) or even pin placement changes, will belong to the PDGA.
So if any DO occur for Worlds, everyone take note that it WON'T be EMac's final decision.
Improbable, sure. But an easy way to defeat that math would be to have one 1080 rated player versus a large field. This highest rated player can play below his rating and win every event. Of course, after a while of doing so, his rating will start to come down, so he can't do it indefinitely.
At DDO, Ricky was the highest rated player in the field. It'd be a lot more impossible for the 50th percentile player to win an event with an average round rating lower than his player rating.
Great point
dehaas
* Ace Member *
Given the am scam business model of the past you'd think DDO would potentially be a bigger money maker than worlds?
NOStheBOSS
Double Eagle Member
I was out of town this weekend, how did Kona do?
Udisclive.com is another good resource to check results for all competitors in MPO and FPO.
smoothplayer
Banned
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I thought Eagles Crossing was supposed to be the be-all and end-all, ultimate course designed specifically for pro players? Is it not ready yet?
These mostly open, OB fest courses absolutely blow. :wall:
They have roped off OB all over there too. Not sure why. Lots of random stakes all over the place for cart paths and stuff. It had great potential for sure.
Kona withdrew due to COVID exposure. If you go back about 10 pages in this thread you will see someone commending her for doing so and others saying she wasn't in contention at that time anyway. Whatever.
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You would need to offset the differences in player groups.
For example, FPO had a difference of 73 ratings points over 25 finalists, while MPO had a difference of just 54 points over 50 finalists. Perhaps the weather wasn't strong enough to overcome the 3 ratings points difference between FPO players, but was enough to overcome the 1 ratings point difference between MPO players.
Comparing different tournaments suffers from the same problem. The wider the spread of ratings, the better the course will seem to perform.
mikemiller20
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I agree with this statement. I 100% believe that if she was on the lead with no symptoms, as she claimed, that she would have played. She still could've worn a mask if she truly wanted to play. After all, wearing a mask is the best way to prevent the spread of Covid.
glassila
Double Eagle Member
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Let it go. You know nothing about the situation. But please don't let that stop you from projecting your obvious bitter jealousy and animosity, toward someone you don't know.
I noticed each player had a tee off song,and it played loudly. Is this a new thing? Does anyone know if players we required to have a tee off song? It definitely helped set the stage and gave the event sort of a party atmosphere. I only question whether the music was loud enough to carry to other holes and interfere with other players on the course. At an event like this I think they would want to keep a certain level of decorum, but maybe this was agree upon in advance and the players were OK with it.
It makes me wonder if the organizers needed to obtain special waivers to do this? Typically this would go against the spirit of many other rules in the rule book.
It makes me wonder if the organizers needed to obtain special waivers to do this? Typically this would go against the spirit of many other rules in the rule book.
I've seen this on other videos. Don't recall when/ where. Not sure how common it is.
I don't really get the purpose. Just doesn't really seem like it fits with the sport/moment.
