lyleoross
* Ace Member *
Sorry, Barry Schultz. My bad.
-
Discover new ways to elevate your game with the updated DGCourseReview app!
It's entirely free and enhanced with features shaped by user feedback to ensure your best experience on the course. (App Store or Google Play)
2017 Pittsburgh Flying Disc Open Presented by Discraft
- Thread starter jjtwinnova
- Start date
Sorry, Barry Schultz. My bad.
lyleoross
* Ace Member *
Sorry Steve. Goodpasture's disc is just behind Barry Schultz'. Goodpasture drives, and while his toe is on his mark, he heel rotates and thus foot faults before release. Minor infraction, but still. He steps behind Barry who drives and clearly faults. Someone makes the call. I was curious to know if it was Goodpasture, since that would have been ironic and would have tickled my funny bone.
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2009
- Messages
- 6,855
SD86
Banned
True, and it seems like he's elevated it even further this season.
SD86
Banned
Looks like Houston is having a rough time. Hope things get better out there, and soon.
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2009
- Messages
- 6,855
lyleoross
* Ace Member *
We've been amazingly lucky. A lot of people haven't been. As an aside, a whole bunch of deplorables from Louisiana drove over here to rescue people and help out. Yeah, those deplorables. A big thanks.
SD86
Banned
I saw where the "Cajun Navy" arrived in Houston to help with rescues. These are people from Louisiana who hitched their boats to trucks and drove to Houston to help.
Contrast with electricians and others from Georgia who went up to New Jersey at their own expense to help after Hurricane Sandy. They were told their help was not wanted, because they were not UNION workers...
Yeah, we're off-topic...
lyleoross
* Ace Member *
While I strongly support Unions, that's ridiculous. Just goes to show you, anyone can be a donkey.
SD86
Banned
I'm not against Unions (not nearly as much as some might think), but when people are trying to help in a crisis, accept the frickin' help! Anyway, let's hope the Cajun Navy and all the others can rescue everyone and minimize loss of life...
lyleoross
* Ace Member *
Performance Tracks Chart
What do you think about the inevitable trend of players getting better through the weekend. Only Paul and Ricky ever start hot and finish hot.
Jabumbo
Par Member
Yes, it was Good pasture who made the call.
I honestly wasn't paying much attention as I was making my break for the bathroom to then set up for a shot from the tee at 11, but if there was a call to be made it wasn't much of one. It seemed like he just wasn't set up behind his mark properly?
(fwiw i never use a marker so i don't really know the exact rule)
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2009
- Messages
- 6,855
That chart does not show any trend of players getting better. (In fact, it would be impossible for it to show that, even if that had happened, and there is no evidence it did.)
Where there is an upward line on that chart it shows the cumulative result of a player playing better than their rating - hole after hole.
For example, Geoff Bennett's rating is just 989. Based on that, his expected final score would be 191.63. For large chunks of the tournament, he got scores on many holes that were lower than the average score for 989 rated players. So, his expected final score kept getting lower (up is better=lower score on that chart).
The reason these charts usually show upward lines (for all but Paul and Ricky) is that to get into the top ten, anyone else has to play better than their rating over the course of the tournament. Somebody in the second tier of players is going to get lucky. Normal humans need to get as lucky (or suddenly learn to play better than their rating) to beat the lucky players.
Paul and Ricky can play at their rating and get in the top ten. Paul's expected final score before he started playing was 165.7, which would have been good enough to win. So to win, Paul just needed to get scores that were expected of a 1052 rated player, which would be a flat line (with some jiggles because expected scores are fractional while actual scores are integers).
Here are some tracks of players who were highly rated, but did not play as well as expected.
lyleoross
* Ace Member *
That chart does not show any trend of players getting better. (In fact, it would be impossible for it to show that, even if that had happened, and there is no evidence it did.)
Where there is an upward line on that chart it shows the cumulative result of a player playing better than their rating - hole after hole.
For example, Geoff Bennett's rating is just 989. Based on that, his expected final score would be 191.63. For large chunks of the tournament, he got scores on many holes that were lower than the average score for 989 rated players. So, his expected final score kept getting lower (up is better=lower score on that chart).
The reason these charts usually show upward lines (for all but Paul and Ricky) is that to get into the top ten, anyone else has to play better than their rating over the course of the tournament. Somebody in the second tier of players is going to get lucky. Normal humans need to get as lucky (or suddenly learn to play better than their rating) to beat the lucky players.
Paul and Ricky can play at their rating and get in the top ten. Paul's expected final score before he started playing was 165.7, which would have been good enough to win. So to win, Paul just needed to get scores that were expected of a 1052 rated player, which would be a flat line (with some jiggles because expected scores are fractional while actual scores are integers).
Here are some tracks of players who were highly rated, but did not play as well as expected.
What I learned from this is that even if I ask a dumb question I might still get a good answer. Thanks Steve.
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2009
- Messages
- 6,855
Zanguini
Birdie Member
is it me or do the charts for wysocki and pierce look really similar?
Nick Pacific
Eagle Member
- Joined
- Jan 18, 2013
- Messages
- 992
So accurate at that range and, perhaps most impressive of all, out of all of the big arm young guns, Paul seems to scramble the most consistent too.
Paul's got a good four years on Rick and the rest of the guys I'd call young guns, he's moved into his athletic prime now.
Do you anticipate courses in use and layouts being consistent enough to begin to include prior year(s) performances into the expected performance in the years to come?Performance Tracks Chart
For example - I believe Geoff has played some great PFDOs in the past (could be wrong - and not sure if same course or layout) which could have an impact on expectation.
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2009
- Messages
- 6,855
Nothing I've found would be evidence that Geoff should have been expected to perform better than his rating would indicate.
The chance that he would perform as well as he did (assuming his rating was correct and he had no special super-powers specific to this course) was 1 in 447. That's a rare, but not incredible, event. It would be expected to happen to somebody every few big tournaments (given that there are dozens or hundreds of players at the big tournaments).
Similar threads
