Ratings FPO vs MPO

[Smigles]

Kristin being in reach of being the first woman to reach a 1000 rating got me thinking.


As i understand it, the rating used to be an overall measurement of how well you play and it was the same for women and men. Both sexes played the same course from the same tees and got the same rating for the same amount of throws. Now with special FPO tees, the courses that women play get easier and shorter than the courses that men play. So obviously the same number of throws is not the same level of play any more and should not be the same rating either.

So my question: Did the introduction of FPO layouts also split ratings into a FPO and a MPO rating? Will Kristins 1000 rating (if she reaches it) be comparable to the first guy who got to 1000 in MPO?

 

[Shallows]

Kristin being in reach of being the first woman to reach a 1000 rating got me thinking.


As i understand it, the rating used to be an overall measurement of how well you play and it was the same for women and men. Both sexes played the same course from the same tees and got the same rating for the same amount of throws. Now with special FPO tees, the courses that women play get easier and shorter than the courses that men play. So obviously the same number of throws is not the same level of play any more and should not be the same rating either.

So my question: Did the introduction of FPO layouts also split ratings into a FPO and a MPO rating? Will Kristins 1000 rating (if she reaches it) be comparable to the first guy who got to 1000 in MPO?

Yes. The point of the rating is to compare player performance beyond head to head competition. It doesn't take into account any information about the course beyond what players score on it. An FPO 1000 is to an MPO 1000 as an AM 1 950 is to an AM 2 950 and a California MPO 1000 is to a Virginia MPO 1000.

 

[Brychanus]

I had thought Shallows' explanation was always the intent, but Steve West has provided some interesting cross-comparisons here and there. I never quite fully understand what accounts for FPO/MPO differences (or apparent regional/national differences, and so on) when they appear.

It seems to me like part of it is about the field and course "fitness" to the players in MPO vs. FPO, but that may not account for everything in e.g. the chart in the first link below (do sample sizes interact etc?). In general, MPO round scores tend to track more tightly and more linearly with ratings, and apparently MPO would get lower ratings than FPO for the same layout scores in some cases. I've done some casual analysis on local divisions and the open divisions tend to be very linearly related between raw score and rating, with more deviation in female-protected divisions but still a similar overall trend. So paging Steve and anyone else who has spent a lot of time thinking about it.

Here's the main one I was thinking about where Steve talked about MPO vs. FPO ratings and related discussion when considering if Pierce would make 1000:

Paige Pierce #29190

Re: FPO 1000 ratings - I'm not an expert on the ratings system by any stretch, but ... Given that there currently are more FPO players routinely getting rounds approaching 1000 (Cat, Mandujano, Oliva, Bloomros, Salonen, etc), doesn't it help some like Kristen when so many propagators have...

www.dgcoursereview.com

Other interesting reads which might or might not be relevant, maybe someone can help us out.

Determining course "fitness" in MPO and FPO:

PDGA World Championships 2022

We can have this same talk again in a few weeks about #17 at USDGC

www.dgcoursereview.com

Bonus on Par Talk:

Par Talk

Nicely done. The question obviously peaked your interest. If I followed your analysis correctly, it would be fair to say that changing PAR does not have significant impact on how pro level players perform on the hole. What I found more interesting was that the results didn't have any...

www.dgcoursereview.com

This entire thread has cool concepts:

Hole and Course Performance Statistics

This thread is for posting and talking about measures of how courses and holes perform.

www.dgcoursereview.com

Where can the actual math for PDGA ratings calculations be found?

 

[Steve West]

And apparently Japanese ratings are not the same. Manabu averaged 12.4 throws per round higher than what would be expected if his rating meant the same thing as the other MPO ratings.

For all the other MPOs, their scores hovered around expected, with a standard deviation of 1.26 throws per round.

So, either Manabu has an inflated rating, or he had an impossibly bad four rounds in a row.


The math for ratings is OK, but it cannot compare different groups of players unless there is enough crossover between the groups to overcome the drift that happens through random fluctuations and - maybe - a built-in bias for pushing top players in any group to the same ceiling.

 

[ChrisWoj]

So, either Manabu has an inflated rating, or he had an impossibly bad four rounds in a row.

Why is this an either/or proposition?

I'd bet that its a little from column A and a little from column B. Manabu has a rating that is likely inflated by a combination of a personal hot-streak on a relatively small sample of rounds, even for him.... and a relatively isolated pool of players who may have a inflated ratings.

AND

Manabu is also a player who simply played BAD at Worlds. The Manabu Kajiyama that we saw on this trip stateside has been mostly far from what we typically see when he crosses the ocean historically, even with a good AFDO.

I wonder if it is also possible that he simply wasn't ready, and maybe his game doesn't translate well, to the style of golf played on modern courses (I'd lean more toward the former, given his general skill level). He was last in the USA in 2019 for disc golf competition.

For me, the question this brings to mind is: how does the AFDO compare statistically to the rest of the modern tour courses? How does it compare to courses that were used for Worlds prior to 2020? (interestingly Manabu made it to 2017 Worlds (1008 average) and 2019 Worlds (1031 average) but missed out on 2018 at Smugglers'.

 

[Steve West]

You're right, the answer is usually "some of both".

 

[Smigles]

And apparently Japanese ratings are not the same. Manabu averaged 12.4 throws per round higher than what would be expected if his rating meant the same thing as the other MPO ratings.



The math for ratings is OK, but it cannot compare different groups of players unless there is enough crossover between the groups to overcome the drift that happens through random fluctuations and - maybe - a built-in bias for pushing top players in any group to the same ceiling.

I live in central europe and our ratings here are definitly inflated as well. When friends go to play in scandinavia or the states they really struggle to play their rating.

I will read trough all those links later, thanks Brychanus.

 

[robdeforge]

An FPO 1000 is to an MPO 1000

my understanding is that this is not necessarily the case, because they are playing different layouts.

 

[Shallows]

my understanding is that this is not necessarily the case, because they are playing different layouts.

It is the case in as much as a regional California MPO 1000 is similar to a regional VA MPO 1000, who are also playing different layouts.

 

[txmxer]

Player ratings from different regions/pools are kind of like flight numbers from different manufacturers.

 

[robdeforge]

It is the case in as much as a regional California MPO 1000 is similar to a regional VA MPO 1000, who are also playing different layouts.

Except those regional players will likely have non region only players playing in their events enough to not make them a complete bubble. Unlike FPO

 

[@CD-]

Why is this an either/or proposition?

I'd bet that its a little from column A and a little from column B. Manabu has a rating that is likely inflated by a combination of a personal hot-streak on a relatively small sample of rounds, even for him.... and a relatively isolated pool of players who may have a inflated ratings.

AND

Manabu is also a player who simply played BAD at Worlds. The Manabu Kajiyama that we saw on this trip stateside has been mostly far from what we typically see when he crosses the ocean historically, even with a good AFDO.

I wonder if it is also possible that he simply wasn't ready, and maybe his game doesn't translate well, to the style of golf played on modern courses (I'd lean more toward the former, given his general skill level). He was last in the USA in 2019 for disc golf competition.

For me, the question this brings to mind is: how does the AFDO compare statistically to the rest of the modern tour courses? How does it compare to courses that were used for Worlds prior to 2020? (interestingly Manabu made it to 2017 Worlds (1008 average) and 2019 Worlds (1031 average) but missed out on 2018 at Smugglers'.

My calculations for Kajiyama for this next ratings update will have him drop to the lower 1020s. Once he and the other players from Japan that played a few events in the U.S. go back then the ratings pool for Japan will be smaller and the rest of the players ratings will be deflated slightly. I expect end of year Kajiyama's rating will be back in the 1030s if he plays some more events amongst the Japanese pool and stop double weighting the recent U.S. rounds.

FPO certainly has isolated a lot for the U.S. pro tour players. Occasionally players will go 'off tour' and play an A-tier or below on shared layouts with Masters Pros or MPO but also MA1. We saw Tattar forgo playing any extra events in Europe between the PCS -> EO -> EDGC and now Worlds. So she avoided playing the same layouts as MPO for any of the EuroTour/EPT/PDPT tournaments that she could have played.

I think the European FPO players are benefitting from playing the longer MPO layouts on those tours for a while when they do end up travelling stateside to compete. Salonen/Blomroos/Tattar all started out needing to throw more accurately & with good distance in order to score before joining the DGPT for extended periods (I think Tattar is the only one with a more permanent U.S. Visa). Laine and Saarinen both seem poised to join in with their success on the EPT and EuroTour this year.