2018 USDGC

[GoobyPls]

Somebody give me a reason I should care about the last two rounds of this tournament.

 

[notroman]

Somebody give me a reason I should care about the last two rounds of this tournament.

It's Winthrop and 5 stroke swings can happen on almost any hole.

 

[DiscFifty]

Somebody give me a reason I should care about the last two rounds of this tournament.

Round 3 will be the one to watch closely imop. Paul with a few bogies, Conrad with a few birdies, and all of a sudden it's a different tournament. The race for 3rd & 4th place looks to be fairly epic btw. But wow...Simon & Eagle... severely underperforming as far as ratings go.

 

[RShope33073]

Somebody give me a reason I should care about the last two rounds of this tournament.

Because you are eaither going to be witnessing greatness or a great comeback

 

[robdeforge]

Because you are eaither going to be witnessing greatness or a great comeback

also a very different take on live disc golf coverage!

 

[Putt for D'oh]

Because you are eaither going to be witnessing greatness or a great comeback

Frankly this. This is a course that sitting on a lead playing it safe doesn't work, Paul's best shots to stay safe are to play as aggressive as he normally does, but that again is high risk reward as well. He won't be playing boring golf.

 

[GoobyPls]

Because you are eaither going to be witnessing greatness or a great comeback

Meh. I don't really enjoy watching blowouts in any sport. This is the first tournament all year where I haven't really been interested in watching the post-produced videos.

 

[Pymm]

Just got back last night. I could only spend two days. We had an amazing time! The pros, volunteers, and other fans were all great. I got a ton of augtographs on my USDGC Roc, including Schusterick, Bjerkaas, Pierce, Conrad, Barsby, Reading, Barela, Braithwaite, Nybo, Kolling, and Kristin Tattar, one of my favorite players who was there as a spectator. I got some cool swag, also, including a new Innova hat that may be too cool for me to wear. I'm already planning next year's trip!

I took some pics, if anyone is interested. Not a great photographer by any stretch of the imagination but they turned out alright I guess: https://imgur.com/a/PbEkscx

 

[ThrowBot]

It's designed to be an easy birdie, but it is definitely a par 4 as a lot of players can't even attempt to reach it in one. You see it in ball golf a lot...a reachable par 4 where the big hitters can potentially get to the green in one to set up eagle but even if they miss, birdie is still likely.

10 is a big risk/reward hole. The big arms can go for the green by shortcutting across the OB (~420 to clear the OB, 470 to reach the basket, low window so they can't really throw a big flex shot). It's not a overly dangerous risk as landing OB puts you at the drop zone which, if the wind isn't up, still affords you a reasonable chance to save par from 370 feet. Otherwise, you play up the narrow fairway around the OB so that it plays more true to its listed distance (550).

My assumption if it's playing for birdie or better 60% of the time, the wind must not be blowing much. At least in the past, this one has been an elevated basket which makes the putting a little tougher if it's even a little windy.

For the USDGC Pro field, that might rank as a difficult Par 3.
Errorless certainly gets you 3, with two different options:
Either you play the fairway, probably mid mid, or you cut the OB to the tune of ~420' then lay up.

I have a tough time seeing it as a Par 4 when it's reachable in one toss by most, but that isn't even required to make it in 3.

Heck, there are 500' holes at Par 3 that can't be easily deuced, but the expected score is still 3.

To me it seems more of a Par 4 at like 950 rating, when you can't huck 400' so you have to navigate more OB rope off to the left. Or maybe just an old mentality. (Really, that's still me...but not the USDGC players, on average.)

 

[Steve West]

Somebody give me a reason I should care about the last two rounds of this tournament.

It ain't over 'til it's over. I ran a simulation with the actual scores and scoring distributions by rating so far, and it's not certain that Paul will win.

Spoiler

 

[ThrowBot]

The Powergrip FB live will continue with all likelihood today. Tune in for the 1:00 card with Eagle, Barsby, Dickerson and Piironen for some super laid back coverage. Its basically justa camera on one of the caddies, but in surprisingly good quality. I found it refreshing, as you could hear a lot of the chatter and feel like youre just walking along in the group. Of course for non-Finnish speakers it might be odd, but yesterday there was a big international following in addition to the Finnish DG nerds.

Looking forward to both live streams today. And for Paul to put the nail in the coffin.

That sounds great.
Link??

 

[RShope33073]

Frankly this. This is a course that sitting on a lead playing it safe doesn't work, Paul's best shots to stay safe are to play as aggressive as he normally does, but that again is high risk reward as well. He won't be playing boring golf.

With as big of a lead as he has I think he will stay aggressive on the front 9 and play more conservative on the back 9 which is how the course is really set up to be played.

 

[GoobyPls]

It ain't over 'til it's over. I ran a simulation with the actual scores and scoring distributions by rating so far, and it's not certain that Paul will win.

Spoiler

LOL that's amazing. So, a better than 24-in-25 chance the tournament's already over, and we're just watching everybody else position themselves for cash.

 

[lyleoross]

Somebody give me a reason I should care about the last two rounds of this tournament.

How many times in the last years has there been a huge score swing on the island hole? JEM just to name one. The hole is the world's biggest mind f***.

Paul, when he gets a lead, doesn't tend to do dumb things. But today will be interesting for sure. He isn't far enough away to relax, so the push is on. Yet the field is back enough to potentially cause a loss in focus.

The Oilers

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Comeback_(American_football)

Oh yeah, they defined the term choke. And if Conrad came back and whooped up on Paul, it would be a defining moment in our sport that would persist for a long long time.

 

[lyleoross]

BTW - I'm rootin" for Nate or Uli to make a run. I would have the best time ever if Uli shaved four or five strokes today. Even if he didn't take it, I would really enjoy watching him make a drive.

 

[RShope33073]

BTW - I'm rootin" for Nate or Uli to make a run. I would have the best time ever if Uli shaved four or five strokes today. Even if he didn't take it, I would really enjoy watching him make a drive.

I'd like to see wysocki and koling gain about 5 strokes on the field.

 

[RShope33073]

It ain't over 'til it's over. I ran a simulation with the actual scores and scoring distributions by rating so far, and it's not certain that Paul will win.

Spoiler

From what I hear it hasn't been windy so far which means not a lot of decision making at the teepad. This course can seriously punish you if you are standing on the teepad trying to figure out the wind.

 

[ThrowBot]

It ain't over 'til it's over. I ran a simulation with the actual scores and scoring distributions by rating so far, and it's not certain that Paul will win.

Spoiler

That's awesome.
So basically, McBE4ST needs to run 2 victory laps and not choke on 17?

 

[BuiltTooLong]

It ain't over 'til it's over. I ran a simulation with the actual scores and scoring distributions by rating so far, and it's not certain that Paul will win.

Spoiler

I know he's up by 8, but 96% seems high for having multiple rounds left. I ran a simulation (daydreamed about how he may potentially muck up) and I put him closer to a 87-88% chance of winning.

Remember one bad shot that reaches OB, plus one unlucky shot that reaches OB, could be 4+ stroke swing real fast. I am rooting for him tho, but also want more drama for my own selfish reasons.

 

[TheOtherBill]

There didn't used to be a mando in the fairway (the corner) of hole #4. It was cool. Drives would go out to the landing area, then players would throw these putter shots that would go flat over the pine trees, then stall out and helicopter down to the basket. Or if you didn't have that shot, you would play the same way it is played today....just with no mando.

So what happens if they remove the mando today? Would players just try to cut the corner on their (forehand or roller) drive and blast through/under the pines on their 2nd?

The last time Climo won ('08?) he did that.
A drive out into the open then threw (or was it a roller? Memory is fuzzy from all the kavanuagh'ing) into the pines hoping to get through enough to get a look for three. Pretty sure they introduced the mando after that.