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European Open 2023
- Thread starter Jolt
- Start date
gooberau
Birdie Member
I know and I'm only watching it on UDisc live 
I'll have to wait for some post-production to watch it.
I'll have to wait for some post-production to watch it.
Flick Maniac
* Ace Member *
Googlemaps says 177m (581ft). I know what youre thinking, and I think Ive only ever heard of one big arm dude going for it (IIRC not in tournament play). Tiny freaking landing zone from that distance. Its about 22m x 11m
I would be fun it the hole had even more "U" shape and that straight distance was in the 150m range. . it "only" cost you one stroke to try it once
Flick Maniac
* Ace Member *
While FPO seems pretty much decided, MPO is very much still anyones game. I am sure the unusual suspects will start dropping off during the final round pressure, but you never know
CaptainAnhyzer
* Ace Member *
Ouch Paul...... he's gonna need a stiff drink after hole 18
Flick Maniac
* Ace Member *
Whoah. Of the 72 players currently above the cut line only 7 played even or above par. Among them, one Paul McBeth.
Flick Maniac
* Ace Member *
| POS | NAME | TOTAL | THRU | ROUND | WIN | TOP 3 | TOP 5 | TOP 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T2 | Eagle McMahon | -17 | F | -9 | 29% | 66% | 81% | 94% |
| 1 | Anthony Barela | -19 | F | -12 | 29% | 65% | 80% | 94% |
| T7 | Calvin Heimburg | -14 | F | -9 | 14% | 46% | 66% | 88% |
| T11 | Ricky Wysocki | -13 | F | -9 | 9% | 35% | 56% | 83% |
| T11 | Kyle Klein | -13 | F | -3 | 4% | 19% | 35% | 64% |
| T5 | Corey Ellis | -15 | F | -11 | 3% | 16% | 29% | 59% |
| T5 | Ezra Aderhold | -15 | F | -6 | 3% | 16% | 29% | 58% |
| T2 | Albert Tamm | -17 | F | -10 | 2% | 13% | 25% | 53% |
Flick Maniac
* Ace Member *
Win probabilities are wild. The guy tied for 2nd two off the lead doesnt get much love from the algorithm. I gotta look more closely about what this formula has eaten. I know historical performance is big, but hey, still...
seedlings
* Ace Member *
I think "been there before and won" is a big X factor in the win probability. Except for AB apparently.
mikemiller20
Newbie
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2021
- Messages
- 37
I can see why Kona avoided this tournament, especially after losing the Alaska Open by 9 strokes. I don't know what's going on with her. It might be the mental stuff, or the surgery, or the putting, or insert problem here, but I hope she can right the ship.
@CD-
Eagle Member
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2020
- Messages
- 822
yeah, tournament stats for Tamm show he is out-putting his 2023 average (88% at EO vs. 75% for 2023 from C1x). His C1 in Regulation % stat is a bit elevated as well (leading the field through Round 2 at 64%). He has played well at EO before in (T3 in 2019) but 2022 EO he lost a bunch of strokes putting below average (65% C1x) while being strong off the tee (6th in strokes gained Tee->Green).
McMahon's probability has a few less recent rounds to go off compared to Barela and Tamm from the last year. His 2022 EO performance may be propping up that win % a bit.
Would be interested to see if UDisc could give us a winning score prediction for the field. Hard to see this year's MPO winning score breaking 40 if the wind & rain forecast is correct.
Brychanus
* Ace Member *
Kind of bummed McBeth struggled so much. I still kind of miss the brief era when the "four horsemen"/1050 club were dogfighting on lead card week after week.
On the other hand, now we have more complex drama and I'm starting to love it. Barela is in position (again) to test whether he can stick it out from the front, and there are a couple folks I haven't gotten to see yet up near the top. Tip of the cap to the Bazooka for course craftmanship - he's not just a cannon when he's got that putt working.
If Eagle keeps his cool it's hard not to put the money on him in the long run with half a tourney to go. Mr. Calvin "Podium" Heimborg is right on his heels in the mix.
I'm low key rooting for Ezra or a new European to pull off some magic in the end.
Who's that already leading FPO by a commanding margin? Consider me shocked, shocked I say (Go KT!)! Is achieving that symbolic 4-digit number possible?
On the other hand, now we have more complex drama and I'm starting to love it. Barela is in position (again) to test whether he can stick it out from the front, and there are a couple folks I haven't gotten to see yet up near the top. Tip of the cap to the Bazooka for course craftmanship - he's not just a cannon when he's got that putt working.
If Eagle keeps his cool it's hard not to put the money on him in the long run with half a tourney to go. Mr. Calvin "Podium" Heimborg is right on his heels in the mix.
I'm low key rooting for Ezra or a new European to pull off some magic in the end.
Who's that already leading FPO by a commanding margin? Consider me shocked, shocked I say (Go KT!)! Is achieving that symbolic 4-digit number possible?
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Lurp Nuts
* Ace Member *
So I looked up what "nen" means at the end of the Finnish names. It basically translates to "descended of or from," which if I Finglish it a bit, means that Arminen is from the land of Arms. Sick.
This makes me think of Hole 17 WACO for the massive overhand.
She could move forward toward it with next update...
She's going to be dropping a 954 that will be over 1 year old.
And then adding PCS and this event... she shot on average 17 points below her rating at PCS across 3 rounds, and now with 2 out of 4 in the books at EO she is averaging 24 points above her rating.
Additionally - she's gonna go from 65 rated rounds to 71, so going from 17 to 18 double weighted rounds...
Her six oldest double weighted rounds at the moment are 984, 967, 991, 993, 1023, 979. Those get replaced by the 7 rounds at EO and PCS... 960, 972, 999, 1016, 1020, ????, ????
At the very bottom she's going to be doubling a few rounds worse than the ones that are outgoing, but overall she's got an improved batch of double weighted rounds depending on how she closes out EO.
Course looks ran through, especially the front 9
