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2021 PDGA Professional Disc Golf World Championships June 22-26

Apples and Oranges - I can see the benefits of a manager considering all the new social media aspects and branding opportunities of todays disc golf.

I do not see a time where a caddy could provide any additional information about a disc golf course to justify that becoming a paid position.

sounds like someone is against growing the sport
 
If you look on UDisc the last time he won was 2019 United States disc golf championships.
So it must take a little luck to win the pdga worlds.
And remember without his lucky ace he would've been another stroke back.

So, we'll count up James' luck?

What luck did Paul have over 5 rounds? Or is that just all skill?
 
So, we'll count up James' luck?

What luck did Paul have over 5 rounds? Or is that just all skill?

If you win 5 world championships. If you win a bunch of tournaments each year and whenever your not winning and you are right their in the top 5. And you are getting the most disc golf pro tour points for 3 years straight. Then you must be the best disc golfer ever and so obviously you won 5 world championships due to skill.
And Paul does have lucky things happen to him like his 2 perfect -18 rounds had a little luck involved.
 
I'll be interested to see Steve's mathematical formulation of luck. Is something "lucky" if it's both good and unlikely? What other factors play a part?

Barsby's win in 2018 seems more unlikely, in my opinion. He averaged 38.8 points above his rating through 5 rounds to take the title.

Conrad played "only" 28.4 points above his rating, again through 5 rounds. Slightly more likely to occur.

As a comparative baseline: McBeth played 17.8 points above his rating through 5 rounds to win 2019 Worlds. At the time, that seemed about as likely as the sky being blue, or discs being round.

(I'm a big fan of all 3 players, and I wouldn't say any of those titles are mere luck. But Conrad's win is not the least probable in recent memory.)

It won't be much difference in substance than comparing their round ratings to their player ratings. I'm hoping to find a way to translate that into something probabilistic so the ace would show up strongly.
 
When McBeth makes a 60 foot putt is it luck? No. He regularly runs and frequently makes long putts. You expect some of them to go in.

I'm not sure there is anybody better at running the basket with a putter from 200+ feet than James Conrad. He has made that a regular feature of his game. Was it great for Conrad that it went in? Absolutely. If it had hit center pole and spit, would that have been bad luck? Not really that either.

If I throw in from 250, it's luck. When Conrad does it, it's just percentages in action.
 
I watched an interview from the nick and Matt show with James conrad.
And he says it is a weird word (luck) bet their was some involved. He also said that if he threw that shot 50 times he might get 1 or 2 in.
 
That shot was more special because of altitude.

DG absolutely involves "luck", but luck doesn't win. As is said, you have to be in it to win it.
 
James himself said that he could only hit that shot about 2 out of 50 times.

But from that lie, he puts it on a line that has real, legit chance of hitting metal more often than most other top pros. He's gotta be the best on the tour at shaping shots with putters.

I say that based more on his entire body of work, than based on that single shot.
 
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And that is a very small percentage.

Correct. That makes it improbable -- not purely lucky. And those are the best moments in sports. Ultiworld even put its take on the classic calls in sports history with the line, "in a tournament of improbable the impossible has happened..." The great moments in sports are about executing the improbable. Do football teams practice the hail Mary" pass at the end of a half or game? Sure they do. And it has to be executed to perfection to even have a slight chance of success. And it is rarely successful. Is it "lucky" when it is? Well, depends on the point-of-view. I'd say the "luck" for JC was that this happened to be one of the 1 or 2 out of 50 times he estimates he could throw it in. But that's not pure luck -- at least not any more luck than any other player. It's a shot he can execute but still needs all the stars to align for it to happen.

And for those who say Paul isn't lucky, well it's more than being the best. It's growing up in the right time period. Because I am older and have seen both play, I still believe Champ is the greatest disc golfer ever. I've seen them both play in their prime. But to those saying Paul is, just wait 20-25 years when you're my age and some youngster on whatever form social media has taken by then says to you that the "player of their generation" would smoke 'old Paul McBeth.' What will you say to them? Every era is different and every champion has some luck to win.
 
Correct. That makes it improbable -- not purely lucky. And those are the best moments in sports. Ultiworld even put its take on the classic calls in sports history with the line, "in a tournament of improbable the impossible has happened..." The great moments in sports are about executing the improbable. Do football teams practice the hail Mary" pass at the end of a half or game? Sure they do. And it has to be executed to perfection to even have a slight chance of success. And it is rarely successful. Is it "lucky" when it is? Well, depends on the point-of-view. I'd say the "luck" for JC was that this happened to be one of the 1 or 2 out of 50 times he estimates he could throw it in. But that's not pure luck -- at least not any more luck than any other player. It's a shot he can execute but still needs all the stars to align for it to happen.

And for those who say Paul isn't lucky, well it's more than being the best. It's growing up in the right time period. Because I am older and have seen both play, I still believe Champ is the greatest disc golfer ever. I've seen them both play in their prime. But to those saying Paul is, just wait 20-25 years when you're my age and some youngster on whatever form social media has taken by then says to you that the "player of their generation" would smoke 'old Paul McBeth.' What will you say to them? Every era is different and every champion has some luck to win.

I definitely think their are going to be better players than Paul because disc golf keeps growing and the more people playing the better the chance is to have an even better player than Paul mcbeth.
 
I definitely think their are going to be better players than Paul because disc golf keeps growing and the more people playing the better the chance is to have an even better player than Paul mcbeth.

If "better" means the physical skills and attributes will be more then yes I agree. That part is simply true in every sport. Players evolve as training regimen, sport science, specialization, compensation, etc. all increase. Michael Jordan apologists still struggle with that fact 20+ years after the guy retired the second time. But that I believe will always be true.

If better means "more accomplished," "stronger mentally," better decision-maker," "more dedicated," "greater competitor + ambassador," and various other tangible and intangible components it takes to be a winner at the highest level, then THAT is yet to be seen. Maybe there will be, maybe not.
 
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