European Open 2023

Googlemaps says 177m (581ft). I know what youre thinking, and I think Ive only ever heard of one big arm dude going for it (IIRC not in tournament play). Tiny freaking landing zone from that distance. Its about 22m x 11m
 
Googlemaps says 177m (581ft). I know what youre thinking, and I think Ive only ever heard of one big arm dude going for it (IIRC not in tournament play). Tiny freaking landing zone from that distance. Its about 22m x 11m
I would be fun it the hole had even more "U" shape and that straight distance was in the 150m range. . it "only" cost you one stroke to try it once
 
POSNAMETOTALTHRUROUNDWINTOP 3TOP 5TOP 10
T2
Eagle McMahon
-17F-929%66%81%94%
1
Anthony Barela
-19F-1229%65%80%94%
T7
Calvin Heimburg
-14F-914%46%66%88%
T11
Ricky Wysocki
-13F-99%35%56%83%
T11
Kyle Klein
-13F-34%19%35%64%
T5
Corey Ellis
-15F-113%16%29%59%
T5
Ezra Aderhold
-15F-63%16%29%58%
T2
Albert Tamm
-17F-102%13%25%53%
 
Win probabilities are wild. The guy tied for 2nd two off the lead doesnt get much love from the algorithm. I gotta look more closely about what this formula has eaten. I know historical performance is big, but hey, still...
 
I can see why Kona avoided this tournament, especially after losing the Alaska Open by 9 strokes. I don't know what's going on with her. It might be the mental stuff, or the surgery, or the putting, or insert problem here, but I hope she can right the ship.
 
Win probabilities are wild. The guy tied for 2nd two off the lead doesnt get much love from the algorithm. I gotta look more closely about what this formula has eaten. I know historical performance is big, but hey, still...
yeah, tournament stats for Tamm show he is out-putting his 2023 average (88% at EO vs. 75% for 2023 from C1x). His C1 in Regulation % stat is a bit elevated as well (leading the field through Round 2 at 64%). He has played well at EO before in (T3 in 2019) but 2022 EO he lost a bunch of strokes putting below average (65% C1x) while being strong off the tee (6th in strokes gained Tee->Green).

McMahon's probability has a few less recent rounds to go off compared to Barela and Tamm from the last year. His 2022 EO performance may be propping up that win % a bit.

Would be interested to see if UDisc could give us a winning score prediction for the field. Hard to see this year's MPO winning score breaking 40 if the wind & rain forecast is correct.
 
Eagle looks strong and hes one of the few that have two rounds with similar score, many of the other players in the top 10 have one good and one not som good round
 
Kind of bummed McBeth struggled so much. I still kind of miss the brief era when the "four horsemen"/1050 club were dogfighting on lead card week after week.

On the other hand, now we have more complex drama and I'm starting to love it. Barela is in position (again) to test whether he can stick it out from the front, and there are a couple folks I haven't gotten to see yet up near the top. Tip of the cap to the Bazooka for course craftmanship - he's not just a cannon when he's got that putt working.

If Eagle keeps his cool it's hard not to put the money on him in the long run with half a tourney to go. Mr. Calvin "Podium" Heimborg is right on his heels in the mix.

I'm low key rooting for Ezra or a new European to pull off some magic in the end.

Who's that already leading FPO by a commanding margin? Consider me shocked, shocked I say (Go KT!)! Is achieving that symbolic 4-digit number possible?

1689967007940.png

1689967128927.png
 
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I would be fun it the hole had even more "U" shape and that straight distance was in the 150m range. . it "only" cost you one stroke to try it once
This makes me think of Hole 17 WACO for the massive overhand.
 
Who's that already leading FPO by a commanding margin? Consider me shocked, shocked I say (Go KT!)! Is achieving that symbolic 4-digit number possible?

View attachment 313316

View attachment 313317
She could move forward toward it with next update...

She's going to be dropping a 954 that will be over 1 year old.

And then adding PCS and this event... she shot on average 17 points below her rating at PCS across 3 rounds, and now with 2 out of 4 in the books at EO she is averaging 24 points above her rating.

Additionally - she's gonna go from 65 rated rounds to 71, so going from 17 to 18 double weighted rounds...

Her six oldest double weighted rounds at the moment are 984, 967, 991, 993, 1023, 979. Those get replaced by the 7 rounds at EO and PCS... 960, 972, 999, 1016, 1020, ????, ????

At the very bottom she's going to be doubling a few rounds worse than the ones that are outgoing, but overall she's got an improved batch of double weighted rounds depending on how she closes out EO.
 

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